United Cardinal Bloggers discuss Matt Holliday

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It’s that time of year again for the February preseason roundtable.

Yesterday was the day for Redbird Rants to ask the question.

Feb 17, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) looks on from the batting cage during spring training at Roger Dean Stadium. Image Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

What I asked of my fellow United Cardinal Bloggers yesterday was: After a slow start to the 2013 season, Matt Holliday bounced back to finish the year hitting .300 on the season. What do you expect to see from the Cardinals left fielder this year?

Dathan Brooks: I expect serious offensive numbers from 7 this year. I might even call for a top 15 finish in NL MVP voting. #Optimism

Christine Coleman: I agree with Dathan, as I expect big things from him too and can see him increasing his power numbers from last season. And a top 15 NL MVP finish in 2014 sounds absolutely doable.

Jay Simons: Matt Holliday is incredibly consistent. He may have started a little slow in ’13, but his numbers ended just about where they always end. He has been a tremendous signing for Mo and the Cards. That said, he is entering his declining years. Steamer projects – .291/.377/.488 w/ 22 homers. Based on everything he has been for his career up until this point it seems very possible that it plays like this.

Mark Tomasik: In each of his four full seasons with the Cardinals, Matt Holliday has had more than 30 doubles and more than 20 home runs. He has achieved 100 RBI in two of those seasons. His career batting average as a Cardinal is .306. So, with Allen Craig and Oscar Taveras to protect him in the batting order, and with Kolten Wong and Peter Bourjos providing more run-producing chances, I expect Holliday to hit .300 with 24 home runs, 35 doubles and 100 RBI.

Rodney Knuppel: Matt Holliday is a hitter, and that will continue in 2014. The man bats a career .311. Two more seasons of 170+ hits will get him to 2,000, along with 1,000 runs he will get to this season. If I had to throw numbers out there, I’ll take Holliday with a .306 average, 25 home runs, and 100 runs batted in.

Ben Chambers: I expect he’ll be somewhere around .300 at the end of the year with about 20 home runs. His defense has been declining the last few years, and so I’m just hoping that he’ll be able to make it back up to around a 0.0 UZR.

Daniel Shoptaw: Since coming to St. Louis–and really, even before, Holliday has been quietly a consistently good hitter. There don’t seem to be any warning signs–save that age number that none of us have quite figured out how to reverse–to think that he won’t be in the ballpark of his normal numbers yet again. The slow start of last year could be just a little disconcerting if you remember that Albert Pujols had a couple of slow start years (the second more extended than the first) before his drop off in Anaheim. Still, penciling Holliday in for .300/.390/.500 with about 25 homers doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.

Corey Rudd: Holliday’s consistency is so valuable and is completely under appreciated in STL. The fact that you can virtually count on .290 average, 22 home runs, 94 RBIs, 100 runs scored and .870 OPS and that is worth every dollar of his contract.

Now I agree with Ben’s comment on his defense. It is not good. But that is part of the reason Bourjos was brought in, right?

Mark Sherrard: At age 34, I don’t see his numbers improving much this year, but I also have not seen anything to indicate a decline either. I would pencil him in for .295/.380/.500 with 25 homers and 100 rbi’s. The addition of Peralta will help his rbi numbers, as I see Jhonny hitting in the second spot, behind Matt Carpenter and with Allen Craig, Yadier Molina and Matt Adams behind him, I can see him score 100 runs as well.

Joe Schwarz: Most projection systems have 2014 as the start of age-related decline for Matt Holliday. However, these projection systems don’t take into account how fit Holliday still is at his age. He doesn’t eat fried foods and works out harder more than most football players. Thus, is there a chance that he has some decline? Maybe a little bit in his home run power, but I don’t see much of a drop in his batting average or on-base percentage.

If you follow me on Twitter, I am a firm believer in having Holliday hit in the two-hole because of his terrific OBP–one of the highest on the team. Will it happen? Probably not, but if it does, his RBI count may decrease in 2014, but at the same time, he will score more runs.

I have Holliday penciled in for a .304/.385/.478 slash line with a .378 wOBA and an fWAR around 4 or so. His home run total will hover just above or below 20 with 85 RBI and 92 runs scored.

Matt Whitener: Simply put, he’s the best left fielder in baseball and the most undervalued player that is the best at his position of any in the game. And oddly enough, that under-appreciation of him actually starts in St. Louis, where more often that not, players are truly appreciated more roundly than in most other cities.

But Holliday gets an odd treatment that is spawned by a combination of his contract amount, his lack of “it” moment at the highest level, the fact that he is steady over spectacular and his weaker points in comparison to his strengths. We’ve seen this phenomena before; most noticeably J.D. Drew comes to mind, but any idea that Holliday isn’t earning his keep is asinine.

I see an uptick for Holliday this year, considering the fact that his first half last season was a clear outlier to his usual standard he’s met with amazing regularity.

From a statistical perspective, I see a .305/25/105 standard stat slash, with an OBP in the .385 area. The drawbacks are likely another 20+ double play season and his defense continuing to hover around the -1 range factor level. But really, that’s not what he’s here to do, and in the end, a 3 Win Above Replacement level year is what I see and would expect him to be, as usual.

Dan Buffa: Matt Holliday is a model of consistency, as Whitener cleanly pointed out. Expectations for him coming into his 12th season and 5th with the Cards, I expect nothing less than the usual standard from the big fella. 145 games played, an on base percentage of at least .375, a batting average of .305, 115 RBI(with better speed on team at bottom of the order comes better chances for the top of the order later in the game) and around 25 home runs. You don’t get mind blowing stats from Holliday but that you do get a guaranteed level of production that should be appreciated with the other insane outfielder contracts from his era. Anybody looking up Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth’s overall production since their big deals sure can attest. And for all the purists who are barking at the news of Robinson Cano jogging down the line(same crowd who got on Pujols about it here), they can be satisfied in knowing no Cardinal on the team hustles down the line harder than Holliday. Sure he doesn’t win gold gloves in left field, but he makes the plays and doesn’t make stupid cutoff throw decisions. He is a prototypical slugger who can get on base, score runs, and knock runners in. He is clearly one of the best signings from Mo’s time here.

John Nagel: I am with Joe, I would love to see Holliday out of the 2 hole. Many of you have shared similar views that I have in that he is consistent. I do worry that his decline may start this year, but it should be a small decline and he still should be around .300 with around 20 bombs.

Matthew Phillip: +1 to both Ben’s comment regarding defense and to Joe’s comment regarding batting the #2 spot.

As for defense, two comparable players, Luis Gonzalez and Lance Berkman, give reason to pause about whether Holliday’s offense — even if it remains constant — will sufficiently offset his fielding. Gonzalez’s fielding swiftly declined after his age-34 season, so perhaps Holliday has one more year. Berkman, of course, aged out of left field by the time he was Holliday’s age. I’m not sure if first base is an option this year for Holliday, but I’m guessing he’ll need to buy a mitt for Spring Training 2015. And perhaps Mike Matheny can invite Keith Hernandez down as a special instructor.

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