Fielding Problems Imminent For St. Louis Cardinals Infield

There could be some fielding issues this coming season for the Cardinals infield if recent trends in their statistics continue. Why is this important? The Cardinals pitching staff, particularly the rotation, throws more ground balls than fly balls by a very large ratio. Before you go crazy and jump straight to the comments section to tell me about how good these guys play their positions because, you “see it everyday”, humor me and let’s review the numbers.

First, the Cardinals starting staff, who will throw approximately 6 out of every 9 innings, induce ground balls at high rates. The chart below shows the cumulative ground ball to fly ball ratio from 2009 through 2011 for each player (with the Cardinals).

This is a lot of ground balls for the infield over the course of the season. Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook get grounders two to one over fly balls. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are not far behind. Even Kyle Lohse is better than one to one. Further, none of these pitchers, except maybe Wainwright, is going to strike out batters at a high clip (see K/9 numbers above). Even more to the point, Westbrook and Garcia lean on the ground ball. Westbrook needs the ground ball as he has very little chance of dominating batters. One would think it would be imperative with such numbers that the infield be set with players who were above average at fielding their position.

Did general manager John Mozeliak put together a strong infield to accommodate the ground ball pitchers he sends out every five days? Looking at statistics from 2009 – 2011 for each player who is set to get some time in the Cardinals infield in 2012, suggest no. I pulled numbers for some players at more than one position in an effort to get as many innings to review for each player as possible. It was also done so players like Lance Berkman would not be solely judged on minimal innings in 2011 at the position in question.

You can check out the glossary here but I will try to relate what is in the chart as best I can. A zero measure in UZR is considered average. Players in the 75th percentile scored scored a 6.8 in 2010. First, the positives. David Freese won’t kill them in the field. He produced positive numbers across the board. He’s no Brooks Robinson, but he won’t hurt the team either.

Rafael Furcal could be given the benefit doubt and some will suggest that 2011 was a blip on the radar. Admittedly, he did have fairly good seasons in the field in 2010 and 2009. But, I’m not certain I want to give him the benefit of the doubt here. He looks slow. He’s not getting younger. He makes too many errors. The chances Furcal improves enough to even get a zero UZR score are not good in my opinion. I bet his range continues to diminish and he won’t all of the sudden make less errors. If both hold true he becomes a deficiency in the field.

As for the potential second basemen, it doesn’t look pretty. Daniel Descalso, who many believe will start the season at second base, doesn’t seem to have great numbers overall. To be fair, most of his results are from third base when he filled in for Freese. His potential competitor Tyler Greene, fairs the worst at second among the three positions he has played in the infield with a -5.2 UZR over 232 innings. Again, a small sample size. He played much better in almost twice the amount of innings at short. This could be beneficial if Furcal encounters an injury or if he needs a day off. The wild card second baseman is Skip Schumaker. Let’s just say if Schumaker is at second it has nothing to do with his glove work. The numbers over 2700 innings do not lie.

Berkman has not played first base full-time since 2010. He was not very good at the position in the minimal amount of time he spent there in 2011. He was OK in 2010, but in a full season in 2009 he had a -3.5 UZR. Here is another instance of a player who is getting older and just doesn’t have the first step or the reflexes that he used to. It could be a rough go for Berkman, especially in the beginning of the season while he gets used to being much more mobile in the field than he was in right field last season.

So, there are some definite worries here. There are many variables in play, and it is possible some of these trends reverse. Maybe Berkman isn’t a statue at first. Perhaps Descalso is better at second than third.  Sure, Furcal could revert back to a better fielder. But, with each member of your starting staff pounding the ball to induce grounders, I’m not certain why Mozeliak would put together an infield with so many question marks and apparent deficiencies.

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