Historic Run


Last week the Cardinals scored a historic amount of runs.  I’m sure you’ve heard all about how they usually don’t score 8.7 runs a game in a week – ever.  But I don’t think people understand just how rolling our offense was.

To put it simply, nearly every player on our offense was performing above their expected performance in that week.  GO ahead.  Try and think of a player who was cold.  Off the top of my head, Berkman, Theriot, Rasmus, and Molina were all blazing hot in that week.  Schumaker, Freese, and Pujols were not quite as ridiculous as them but they were still above it.

Well, this is all just from memory so I’m going to put my theory to the test.  First I will list the player’s week, then their career numbers, and lastly, their expected seasonal performance using Bill James and Zips projections.*

*So let’s say Player A has a projected batting average of .305 on ZiPS and .288 on Bill James.  I average that to .2965.  In the last week, let’s say they got 20 at-bats.  Well that would be they would have 6 hits out of 20 for their expected performance in that week.

Ryan TheriotH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week12-34 (.353)3/0/0.371.813
Career10-34 (.294)1/0/0.348.704
Expected9-34 (.265)0/0/0.337.672

Well I guess this helps prove the theory somewhat that if your leadoff batter is rolling, then your team is sure to follow.  Theriot played considerably better than his career numbers and absolutely destroyed his expected numbers.  Moving to our franchise centerfielder.

Colby RasmusH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week13-35 (.371)5/1/1.3891.046
Career9-35 (.257)2/0/1.341.803
Expected9-35 (.257)2/0/1.341.796

The crazy part about this is Rasmus arguably performed worse this week than his season numbers.  He had more power with 7 extra-base hits, but he also got on base a lot less.  Let’s go to the future Hall-of-Famer.

Albert PujolsH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week11-32 (.344)1/0/3.3641.020
Career11/32 (.344)2/0/2.4241.047
Expected10/32 (.313)2/0/2.4281.036

Alright well this is hardly fair, but I guess Pujols proved me wrong in a sense.  Pujols performed nearly exactly like he was supposed to.  He actually did worse than his career numbers which is incredible given his 3 homers and .344 average.  But Pujols did do worse.  Still, Pujols was hardly a detriment.  On to soon-to-be long-tenured Cardinal.

Matt HollidayH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week11-27 (.407)5/0/0.5151.108
Expected8-27 (.296)2/0/1.383.897

Holliday performed more than admirably hitting above .400 with a whopping five doubles.  His OPS was also a little below Pujolsian levels which means that he completely above his regular performance.  Let’s go to Fat Elvis…

Lance BerkmanH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week10-24 (.417)0/0/6.4621.628
Expected6-24  (.250)2/0/1.384.841

The Big Puma hit six homers in a week which I believe is some sort of record for either the MLB or the Cardinals.  It definitely is the most he has ever hit in a week as well.  So I’d say that qualified for performing over expectations.  Wonder if the Iceman will cool down the streak?

David FreeseH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week12-26 (.462)1/0/0.4831.060
Expected7-26 (.269)1/0/1.339.766

Freese is on fire although much like last year, it is luck-aided and without power.  Nonetheless, let’s enjoy this likely short-lasting burst.  Personally I’ll hope he can start adding power, or stop striking out.  Let’s go to the Gold Glove catcher.

Yadier MolinaH-AB (.Avg)2B/3B/HR.OBP.OPS
Week7-20  (.350)1/0/0.409.809
Expected5-20 (.250)1/0/0.340.703

Molina has struggled has a hitter recently; however you wouldn’t notice from last week.  He had a great average and an outstanding on-base percentage for a catcher.  He didn’t have the power, but hardly any catchers actually do have it.

I’ll skip Skip Schumaker because he was the one terrible hitter last week with a .182 average and .283 OBP.  But I don’t think that disproves my point.  We have six hitters above their expected performance, one hitter at their expected performance, and one below.

One should also remember that the one below happens to be a below average hitter in the first place and the one at their performance happens to be the best player in the game (for now).   And I think it’s rare even to have as many hot as they did.

Their bench was no exception batting a collective .433 with only possibly Daniel Descalso “disappointing” with a .300 average and no walks and just one double.  Other than that, every other hitter including 4-6 Gerald Laird, had great numbers.  A rolling lineup with a rolling bench produces what the Cardinals did last week.

So if you enjoyed last week’s 8.7 runs a game, well, I just hope you realize that never happens.