The Wainwright Effect

So it’s official. The St. Louis Cardinals will be without superstar pitcher Adam Wainwright for the entire 2011 season. After injuring his right pitching elbow in a bullpen session on Monday, Wainwright left the team’s spring training facilities in Jupiter, Florida to seek a second opinion on the injury. Obviously, the second opinion wasn’t any friendlier than the first, which raised discussion about the three words that no pitcher ever wants to hear: Tommy John Surgery.

Just as it seemed the Albert Pujols contract drama had settled down for the time being, the Cards have made headlines once again, and for all of the wrong reasons. While everyone wanted to remain optimistic and hope for the best, general manager John Mozeliak had a pretty strong sense that it was time to plan for the worst. Now that this is the definition of a worst-case scenario, there is full scale panic in St. Louis. Fans are left with a cold feeling of hopelessness, and as if there weren’t already enough unanswered questions heading into the season, this situation has added more to the list.

What’s next for the Cardinals, Wainwright, and even Albert Pujols? Check it out after the jump.

Talk about killing the buzz and excitement in the air that comes along with the start of a new season. I mean this is simply devastating for the entire organization. We still have more than a month to go before opening day, but the Cardinals’ season may already be over. It’s really just an unfortunate situation.

Here’s some of what Mozeliak had to say during his announcement.

"It’s not a real surprise to us but certainly a disappointment. As we look to the future now we certainly believe we still have a strong starting rotation. Now we’re going to have to look to try to fill it in terms of a fifth spot. You’re losing an ace. It’s not something you can replace overnight. I would also say we have four quality pitchers. It’s not exactly like we have no bullets left."

I’m not usually one to see the glass as half empty, but c’mon man. A strong starting rotation, are you kidding me? The rotation may be strong by Mozeliak’s standards, but when the Phillies stand as a roadblock to the Cards in the National League, this depleted rotation is nowhere near good enough. Sure, you still have an ace in Chris Carpenter, but he’s no Adam Wainwright. Jamie Garcia is a promising young kid coming off an outstanding rookie year, but after these two, the starters are shaky at best.

As unfortunate as this season-ending blow is, it really makes us realize just how important Wainwright is to this team’s success. In short, the guy is irreplaceable. Don’t believe me? Have a look at some of these numbers.

We all know that Wainwright has finished second and third respectively in the NL Cy Young voting of the last two seasons. However, over the course of the last two seasons, Adam is one of just four pitchers with at least 400 strikeouts and an ERA below 3.00 (425 K’s & 2.53 ERA). The other guys on the list include Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Roy Halladay. Last time I checked, that’s some pretty nice company. His 2.53 ERA is the second lowest among MLB starters over the last two years, and no NL pitcher has thrown more innings than Wainwright’s 463 1/3 since 2009. By the way, he has won a Gold Glove and been selected to an all-star game since that time.

So without Waino, do the Cardinals have a shot at winning the NL Central or even making the playoffs for that matter? Well, according to computer projections, their playoff chances decrease from 45.2% to 27.7%. That right there says it all. As of now, I just can’t see a way in which St. Louis will be in the postseason, especially given the new talent that has arrived in the division after what was a very busy offseason. Division rivals have already recognized the opportunity that this injury has presented, and they aren’t exactly masking their emotions.

If there is any sort of positive piece of information to take away from this injury, it’s the fact that in most cases, pitchers are able to make a full recovery from Tommy John surgery without suffering from long-term effects. Some other notable pitchers who have undergone the same reconstructive elbow surgery include Ryan Dempster, Joakim Soria, Josh Johnson, Tim Hudson, and of course, Stephen Strasburg. With the exception of Strasburg, each of these guys has performed just as good if not better after the procedure than before it. I also shouldn’t forget to mention that three Cardinals starters have undergone Tommy John Surgery (Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook). Chris Carpenter has a record of 33-14 since his surgery, so Waino has guys around him that have been through the process in the past.

The date for Wainwright’s surgery has not yet been set, but the typical recovery is anywhere from 12-15 months. He did tear a ligament in the same elbow in 2004, so we’ll have to wait and see if that delays the road to recovery. Either way, his future with the team is very much uncertain.

The biggest question out of all this may not even be about Wainwright. That’s right, this could significantly impact baseball’s best player, Albert Pujols. The fact of the matter is that Pujols will become a free agent upon season’s end. How do the Cards keep Mr. Pujols satisfied if they don’t, in my mind, have a legitimate shot to content in the final year of his contract? That is truly the million dollar question here. If there was ever a year which the Cardinals desperately needed to make the postseason, it’s 2011.

As of right now, reliever Kyle McClellan appears to be the frontrunner to pick up the fifth spot in the starting rotation. He has quite a bit of potential, and the Cardinals would love it if he could be this year’s Jamie Garcia. So far, all indications are that the team will look to fill the void internally. Quite honestly, no matter who the Cards place in the rotation for Wainwright, it will be next to impossible for fans and players alike to keep their spirits up and get past the loss of a consistent 20-game winner.