2008 Team Outlook – Part 4

With under a month now until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it’s time to take a look at the Cardinals starting rotation.  I’ve already discussed the bullpen, both the infield and the outfield, and the team’s payroll, so check them out if you missed them.

Anyone who watched the ’07 team knows that the biggest weakness was the starting pitching.  The group will have to be much better this year in order for the club to stay competitive.  So far, word is that staff ace, Chris Carpenter, will be out until mid-season, as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  Carpenter pitched only one game (opening day) last year.  According to reports, lefty Mark Mulder should be ready to go by May 1st, although I won’t be holding my breath.  Mulder’s timetable has never been accurate.  I often wonder about our medical staff, but that’s a whole other story.  So who will be in the rotation out of spring?

Adam Wainwright, the de facto ace, might get the ball on opening day.  In 2007, Wainwright was 14-12, with a 3.70 ERA in 32 starts.  He was, however, a much better pitcher in the second half.  To me, Wainwright’s best pitch, his curve, wasn’t as knee-buckling in ’07 as it was the year before.  Remember how dominant he was closing out games in the playoffs?  I bet Carlos Beltran is still having Game 7 nightmares.  Now, with a full big league season under his belt, I expect Wainwright to be slightly better in ’08.

Braden Looper will again have a big role this year.  Last season was his first as a starter.  In 31 games (30 starts), he went 12-12, with a 4.94 ERA.  He showed some arm fatigue in ’07, but should have more endurance this year.  I expect him to be improved as well.

Newcomer, Matt Clement, joins the rotation this season.  He hasn’t pitched in a major league game since June 14, 2006, so it’s nearly impossible to predict what we’ll get out of him.  I liked the low risk signing, and I’m hoping he can log innings and come close to being the pitcher he was with the Cubs.  From 2002-04, Clement started 94 games, going 35-36, with very respectable ERAs and high strike out totals.  I’m looking forward to seeing him pitch this spring.

Joel Pineiro slots into the fourth spot.  After the Cardinals picked him up last year, he compiled a record of 6-4, with an ERA of 3.96 in 11 starts.  There was some talk last season of him tipping his pitches, but apparently that’s been worked out.  I’d be happy with 10-12 wins from Joel in ’08.

As it looks right now, the fifth spot could be a combination of guys.  Anthony Reyes, Todd Wellemeyer, and Brad Thompson could all start games until Mulder is healthy.  Wellemeyer showed promise last season, while Reyes was downright awful.  He didn’t get much run support, but it always seemed like he’d give up one big inning and get the loss.  Surprisingly though, barring a trade, I’m looking for Reyes to be the fifth guy.  He’s had a few outstanding games with the Cards (so did Jason Marquis), but was excellent throughout most of his time in the minors.  A new season, with a clean slate, is just what Reyes needs.

Overall, the starting rotation looks improved over last season.  Not having Kip Wells or Mike Maroth involved is a plus.  Perhaps the better glove at short this year could make a difference too.  Either way, it should be more fun to watch.