In the aftermath of the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 trade deadline moves, their offseason signing of Dustin May to a one-year prove-it deal paid off rather handsomely.
At the time, bringing May to St. Louis was a bit of a controversial move. I had been advocating for them to sign him all offseason due to the upside in his profile, but I know others weren't sold on the move, with some even doubting the value of it up to the point of the trade.
I think it's safe to say it was a great experience for all parties involved.
Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, the Cardinals have two major lessons they can learn from the Dustin May experience, both of which bode very well for their ability to build a competitive team and acquire more assets for the future.
Lesson #1 - They are now a destination spot for starting pitchers
When May signed with the Cardinals, he made it clear that St. Louis was an appealing destination for him due to their plan tailor-made to help him excel and their track record for keeping arms healthy in today's game. And now that they've been able to prop up the value of May, more and more pitchers will see St. Louis as a prime landing spot.
Every offseason, high-upside arms hit free agency who have had their value zap due to injuries, underperformance, or a combination of both. Since the Cardinals have seemed to crack the code on pitching injuries and have seen various arms improve under their watchful eye, perhaps pitchers like Freddy Peralta, Zac Gallen, or other guys looking to build their value will be open to a deal with St. Louis.
While next year the hope may be to flip an arm like that again at the deadline, in the future, this is a strategy that can also help the Cardinals build the best possible rotation for a contender as well. There can be years where they sign a Dustin May-style pitcher, have success with them, and ride the whole year out to take advantage of their production.
Lesson #2 - They can add a ton of talent to their farm system with this strategy
But at least for the foreseeable future, the Cardinals should be looking to replicate this type of signing in the offseason to bring back even more prospects in trades, and in fact, they should look to do so with multiple arms available in free agency or trades.
Entering this season, the Cardinals were slated to pay out $55.1 million of their Opening Day payroll to guys on other teams like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado, plus the arbitration numbers they agreed to with Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero. In the cases of Gray and Contreras, the Cardinals ate money on those contracts in trades in order to get back better prospect returns, and now they can maneuver some of that money to players like May that they can sign and flip for future talent.
The Cardinals farm system has grown leaps and bounds over the last 23 months since Chaim Bloom began leading the charge of reshaping their player development system, and since he began to influence more player acquisitions like the 2025 MLB Draft and Trade Deadline, they've also added a ton of talent from outside the organization to strengthen their pipeline.
In trade specifically, names like Jesus Baez, Tai Peete, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Brandon Clarke, Yhoiker Fajardo, Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Mason Molina, Blaze Jordan, Alexander Frias, Josiah Ragsdale, and more. The majority of those names have already vaulted themselves into the most talented group of prospects and young talent in the Cardinals system right now, which continues to help improve the odds that they'll return to true contention in the next few years.
