2 arbitration eligible players the Cardinals should extend, 1 they should not

Wait: IF/OF Brendan Donovan (27, $4 million, through 2027)

One of the more valuable and consistent players, Brendan Donovan has established himself as a quality major league roster piece with the potential to fill in defensively anywhere on the diamond. The main reasons he's included on the wait portion of this list is because of his already increased salary and his lack of star offensive potential.

When comparing Donovan to Nootbaar, the numbers look similar but in a different way. Because of Nootbaar's curious usage when he was on the roster but receiving inconsistent playing time, he actually has played more games than Donovan but totaled 100 fewer plate appearances. Choosing to compare these two is not totally fair to Donovan, as a lot of his value comes from his defensive versatility, but with a roster that needs to find power and a consistent outfield, the offensive value is what the Cardinals should be prioritizing with their money.

Not to disvalue Donovan's fit on the team, but he is already making $4 million so his price is starting to creep into market value the deeper he goes into arbitration. With 3 years remaining in arbitration, he will be 30 years old by the time he hits the open market. While that is not necessarily old in baseball standards, it remains to be seen if he will be able to continue moving around the diamond as that could cause more wear and tear than just having a primary spot. At the beginning of the offseason amid all of the Nolan Arenado rumors, it seemed all but certain that Donovan would wind up as the everyday third baseman. He has shown to provide at least average defensive value at the hot corner, but he has only started 29 games there during his major league career due to Arenado's presence on the roster.

If Arenado were to be dealt and Donovan moves into that role, the Cardinals' third base offense could fall below league average in comparison to the rest of the league. In the 2023 season, Donovan showed his expected contact numbers with his gap-to-gap approach that netted him 10 doubles and 11 home runs in 95 games before the Cardinals' lack of a competitive season prompted Donovan to have surgery on his troublesome elbow. While his offseason was built around throwing rehab, Donovan jumped into the new approach of increasing launch angle to hopefully see more balls leave the yard.

The beginning of the 2024 season had Donovan start the year as the everyday left fielder thanks to the aforementioned Nootbaar injury and Donovan still working his arm up to full strength. The offseason adjustment to provide more power showed up as he tallied 3 home runs and 6 doubles in his first 100 at-bats, but his typical plate coverage waned. While some of the numbers can be attributed to his long layoff from the prior season, his OBP fell below his expected stats as he started expanding the zone and swinging earlier in counts.

His May and June stats showed he began to adjust back towards his patient approach, which led to an all-around increase in his slash line. At the all-star break, Donovan's numbers were right around where he finished in his prior season despite a cooled-off July, with 22 doubles and 8 home runs pushing his slugging percentage into the .400 level. Donovan's second-half numbers were fueled by an outstanding September with the Cardinals all but out of the race, where he posted a .971 OPS with 10 extra-base hits and 12 RBIs.

Donovan's 2024 season provided the production the Cardinals and fans have expected him to offer, with a mid .700's OPS with minimal strikeouts (12.4% K rate), even though his walk rate never got back to his 2023 numbers. That being said, this type of production may be the maximum value the Cardinals ever get out of Donovan, especially if he has to become the full-time third baseman at some point during the year. While his 73 RBIs were second on the team, that speaks more towards the lack of production from the rest of the lineup and the expectation for him to pick up the pieces. Donovan can continue to be a quality major league regular, but his increasing price and limited power potential may make it worthwhile to wait and let him play out his contract through the arbitration process.

Overall, it would not be the worst thing if each of these three players were extended at this point in their careers, but the Cardinals should prioritize quality innings out of the rotation and power in the middle of the lineup. With the Winter Meetings set to open up this week, the values of these players could change based on what moves the league makes. It will be interesting to see what trades, if any, set the market for arbitration players.