2 arbitration eligible players the Cardinals should extend, 1 they should not

Sign: OF Lars Noobaar (27, Estimated $2.85 million, through 2027)

Nootbaar has worked himself into league and worldwide baseball popularity with his pepper grinder celebration that made it into the international stage at the World Baseball Classic with Team Japan. An 8th-round pick in 2018, Nootbaar's early professional career in the A-levels showed a glimpse of the type of player he has become at the major league level. As a 21-year-old, Nootbaar made it to AA and his first year saw him strike out almost as much as he walked but he did not show a ton of power.

The truncated 2020 season was a detriment to Nootbaar, but he used the time off to tap into the power potential that scouts saw from him during his time at USC. The statistics showed that his contact and zone recognition skills were well above average, but he was hitting the ball on the ground too often. Nootbaar started the 2021 season as a regular in AAA Memphis and did not seem bothered by the jump as his plate discipline remained but his new approach powered a phenomenal slash line of .308/.404/.496.

Nootbaar's offensive performance paired with injuries to the major league outfield led to his major league debut in June. He played sporadically and went back and forth to Memphis throughout the next month. The deadline deal that saw Lane Thomas flipped for Jon Lester eventually opened up a full-time role for Nootbaar and put him as a prime candidate for everyday at-bats. His August output about matched his AAA numbers with a .979 OPS but increased his power output with 3 home runs and 3 doubles in only 44 at-bats. Pitching around the league made the typical rookie adjustment and Nootbaar's playing time waned even further due to a paltry .205 average through the end of the year. Despite being with the team full-time, he only totaled 43 more at-bats from September through October.

Nootbaar cracked the Opening Day roster in 2022 but, His late-season struggles rolled over into the beginning of the campaign. After putting up a tough .125 average and a completely uncharacteristic 56% strikeout rate, he was demoted in favor of Brendan Donovan. His time in the minors did not do much to inspire much confidence but June injuries to Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader put the Cardinals in a spot to again call up Nootbaar, this time hopefully for a more consistent role. The continued confidence in the lefty paid off and he hit .294 with 19 extra-base hits, 25 RBIs, and more walks (31) than strikeouts (27) in 136 at-bats. Nootbaar's July plus the return of O'Neill made Bader expendable and he was traded to the Yankees, paving the way for Nootbaar to grab the starting outfield spot for the foreseeable future. His 2022 season eventually ended with a whimper as he could not keep the momentum from the summer months into the remainder of the season as he put up less than a .700 OPS to end the year. The ups and downs of the season gave Nootbaar a strong final line, grabbing at least a 3.0 WAR by both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference's standards and a 123 OPS+. In a positive trend, Nootbaar showed the desired increased power with 14 home runs and 16 doubles with Baseball Savant's statistics backing up his production.

With an overall strong year, Nootbaar was penciled in as a member of the team's starting outfield alongside Tyler O'Neill and rookie Jordan Walker. In what is going to become a theme for his career to this point, Nootbaar hit the injured list and started an outfield carousel that certainly fed into some of the Cardinals' offensive inconsistencies. When healthy, he had over a .750 OPS in the season's first two months while working at multiple different spots in the lineup and in the defensive outfield. However, a low back contusion put Nootbaar on the shelf for another few weeks and when he returned, he was not the same hitter, seeing his OPS fall to .469 in June.

It appeared that all Nootbaar needed to get on track was consistent playing time and health at the major league level as he went on a spectacular run over his next six weeks. In nearly 150 at-bats from July until mid-August, the outfielder went on a tear, hitting .317 with 8 long balls and 10 doubles leading to an .OPS approaching .980. Unfortunately, the injury bug came back for Nootbaar and he went back on the injured list on August 18 with an abdominal injury. Once again, the time off harmed Nootbaar's performance and after returning in September he hit under .200 but, unlike in previous seasons, continued to show his elite strike zone knowledge and contact ability and still produced an OPS over .600 despite the low average. It was near this time that Nootbaar started to garner attention as an unlucky hitter with Statcast potential.

This next part may sound familiar. Given an everyday role in the 2024 lineup, Nootbaar again struggled out of the gate after starting the season on the injured list. In his six weeks after returning, the high contact rate and power showed up again until another late May injury stalled his season. He missed the entire month of June before coming back to the lineup for the remainder of the season in July. Inconsistencies showed up again through the summer months before another spectacular September again gave a glimpse into what a healthy Nootbaar can do, with another high.900s OPS and 10 extra-base hits.

At this point, it's hard to argue that Nootbaar does not have the potential to be a quality middle-of-the-order bat, but the questions remain about his health. Spotrac's market value calculator puts his market value over $14 million and compares him to the Pirates' Bryan Reynolds at this point in his career. If the Cardinals trust the Statcast and Baseball Savant insight, they would do well to get out in front of the market and lock him up before they have to see another outfielder with potential leave St. Louis, especially if he can continue to show his increased power.