11 times the Cardinals allowed fear to drive poor decision-making under John Mozeliak

Fear-based decision #3 - Passing on Max Scherzer despite him wanting to pitch in St. Louis in 2014

Some of this is certainly arrogance, but the Cardinals as an organization have clearly feared the idea of giving lucrative long-term contracts to starting pitchers in free agency, even when a future Hall of Famer in his prime came knocking on their door and was willing to take less to pitch for them.

The 2014 Cardinals finished the year reaching their fourth straight National League Championship Series, this time falling short to the San Francisco Giants four games to one and looking to continue their run of dominance in the NL Central division as a young Chicago Cubs team began their ascent.

The Cardinals did a masterful job of winning at an extremely high level in the early 2010s, even after losing one of the best players of all time to free agency in Albert Pujols. Their ability to develop talent with the best in baseball while finding the right veterans to add to their core each year allowed them to consistently be one of the final four teams left in October, reaching two World Series (2011 and 2013) while winning the first one they appeared in during this decade.

In many ways, the 2014-2015 postseason represented the beginning of the end for the Cardinals' run of dominance. Not only were they months away from the Houston Astros hacking scandal being uncovered, but that was preceded by Jeff Lunhow and other key members of the Cardinals front office moving on to run the Astros a few years prior. During the same timeframe that Lunhow and his crew left St. Louis, Theo Epstein and his brain trust took over the Cubs and began rebuilding the organization from the ground up.

That offseason, the Cubs appeared to win the offseason by signing pitcher Jon Lester to a huge six-year deal and swiping Rays' manager Joe Maddon to lead their ball club. Many within the game believed that the Cubs were ready to make some noise, and the Cardinals were under pressure to fend them off in 2015.

The Cardinals offseason began with the tragic passing of outfielder Oscar Taveras, rattling the organization and leading them to make a bold trade for outfielder Jason Heyward from the Atlanta Braves, giving up a young stud in right-handed pitching Shelby Miller to get the rental bat.

Now, while that was a substantial move, it really just replaced what the Cardinals thought they already had in Taveras with Heyward and subtracted from their incredible pitching staff. Could they withstand the loss of Miller? Sure, but when your arch-rival is nipping at your heels, you should be ready to pounce on opportunities when they come your way.

That opportunity came knocking, perhaps in the best possible way, but the Cardinals declined to pursue it. During that offseason, Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer, who was from St. Louis, was a free agent and received a seven-year, $210 million offer from the Washington Nationals. Apparently Scherzer reached out to Adam Wainwright and told him that he wanted to pitch in St. Louis, and if the Cardinals got in the "ballpark" of the Nationals offer, he would sign with them.

They never even called.

Bill DeWitt Jr. and John Mozeliak "adhered to a model when it came to starting pitchers that was risk-averse", thus never making an effort to go after an ace like Scherzer who wanted to pitch with St. Louis. The Cardinals had the sixth-best starters ERA (3.44) in baseball in 2024, and even with the loss of Miller, featured a staff with Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Jamie Garcia, John Lackey, and Carlos Martinez. Still, the opportunity to make a strength into a feared unit was on the table, and they said no.

Over the course of that contract, Scherzer started 200 games, posted a 2.75 ERA, struck out 1699 batters, collected two Cy Young awards, and finished top five in Cy Young voting during four other seasons. The long year Scherzer did not finish top five in Cy Young voting and had an ERA north of 3.00 was the 2020 pandemic season.

Yeah, what a miss from this organization. I get it, those huge contracts are scary, and Scherzer was 30 years old when he signed it, and even though hindsight is 20/20, it is the front office's job to nail these decisions. Yes, you will get some wrong, but this wasn't even an example of them not chasing a free agent. This was the Cardinals front office failing to even answer the front door when one of the best pitchers of all time, in his prime, came knocking and said he'd take less to pitch for them.

It's a shame, and this offseason was truly the beginning of compounding poor decisions from the front office that oftentimes led from a place of fear.