11 times the Cardinals allowed fear to drive poor decision-making under John Mozeliak

The John Mozeliak era with the St. Louis Cardinals can be broken down into two very different runs. The first eight years were Hall of Fame resume-building from Mozeliak, and the final decade has been, well, mediocre.

From 2008-2015, the Cardinals went 728-568 (.562 win%), averaging 91 wins per season while collecting four NL Central division titles, four NLCS appearances, two trips to the World Series, and one title in 2011. It's one of the best runs of Cardinals baseball in franchise history.

But from 2016-2024, the Cardinals went 715-639 (.528 win%), averaging 85 wins during full seasons, winning the division just twice during that stretch, making the NLCS just one time, winning a total of four playoff games since 2016 and missing the playoffs entirely in five of the nine seasons during that stretch. Ouch.

One has to wonder why things have gone so poorly for the Cardinals over the last decade as compared to the first half of Mozeliak's tenure. There are so many things we could point to, and I will in this story, but the number one overarching issue that has plagued Mozeliak in his leadership for years now has been letting fear drive so much of their decision-making.

Winning at a high level in Major League Baseball required taking chances, which Mozeliak has done a number of times (sometimes for good, other times not), but as the Cardinals describe some of their decision-making as "risk-averse", it seems to be a mask for fear of failing. The irony is that their fear of failing did not prevent them from doing so, it just made that failure a slow decay rather than a major moment in time.

Today, I want to take a look at some of those key "fear-based" decisions the Cardinals made during John Mozeliak's tenure, mostly in chronological order, that led to their downfall. I can't cover everything in this, but I do believe I've been able to cover the major decisions and trends that snowballed to turn this storied franchise into a directionless wonder in recent years.

Here are 11 times the Cardinals allowed fear to guide poor decision making under John Mozeliak

Fear-based decision #1 - Hiring Mike Matheny over Terry Francona after the 2011 season

Following their 11th World Series Championship in 2011 (hence the 11 mistakes we are looking at), Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa retired from the game of baseball and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols left for the Los Angeles Angels in free agency.

Still, the Cardinals manager job was easily the best opening in all of baseball, as the club's championship window was wide open (as we saw in the years following). The Cardinals interviewed candidates such as Jose Oquendo, Ryan Sandberg, Joe McEwing, and Chris Maloney, but the two leaders in the clubhouse to "lead the clubhouse" were two-time World Series champion manager Terry Francona and former Cardinals' catcher Mike Matheny.

Francona won the World Series in 2004 against the Cardinals with the Boston Red Sox in his first season as their manager, helping them end their 86-year championship drought and collecting another World Series title in 2007. Francona posted a 744-552 record as the Red Sox's manager and an incredible 8-0 record during the Fall Classic.

This did not end on a good note with Boston, as Francona was drug through the mud by players and media for the "beer drinking and fast-food eating" in the clubhouse during games and Francona reportedly being "distracted" due to his personal life. I'm sure these reports did not sit well with the Cardinals and probably played a large role in him not landing the gig that offseason. Some reports even indicated that Francona's interview was merely a "courtesy" meeting with the Cardinals having their eyes fully set on Matheny to lead the club.

Matheny was a part of the Cardinals' run of high-level play from 2012-2015, but many fans feel as though he held the team back from accomplishing all that it could and he was ultimately fired in 2018 after the club was trending toward its third-straight season of missing the playoffs.

Francona, on the other hand, went on to lead the Cleveland Guardians for a number of years, helping them become one of the better teams in baseball and reaching the World Series in 2016. Francona is viewed as one of the best managers in the game and could have been the key to the Cardinals getting over the hump many times during the 2010s.

I'm not sure it's fair to say this was the "first" decision based out of fear by the Cardinals during Mozeliak's regime, but it certainly was one of the first major choices that had lasting impacts for the organization. But the most controversial decision on this list within the fanbase was referenced at the top of this and still remains one of the greatest mysteries in the history of the franchise.