10 New Year's predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Prediction #10 - The Cardinals are competitive in 2025, but it's not enough to make the playoffs

If my predictions come true in 2025, then let's summarize what kind of team we'd be looking at:

1. The Cardinals' rotation is led by a Cy Young candidate in Sonny Gray and a Rookie of the Year candidate in Quinn Mathews. I'd expect that to be a better group overall.
2. The lineup takes a step forward as well. With Contreras, Herrera, and Nootbaar on the field consistently and improvement from various young players, the club is able to produce runs at a league-average rate, rather than bottom six in all of baseball.
3. The bullpen is not as good as it was in 2024, but by holding onto Helsley and having some new young arms in the mix as the season goes on, it's not a huge step back either.

If that is the kind of team we are looking at in 2025, I think we see the Cardinals crack 80 wins again and fight for the playoffs, but once again fall short of October baseball.

The 2024 Cardinals had a Pythagorean expected record of 76-86 based on their play last year, and so they outperformed that by seven wins to finish 83-79. An improved lineup that is not historically bad with runners in scoring position and a bit more upside in the rotation should push that performance up, but without a lockdown bullpen, there's also some regression coming for one-run games.

So overall, while I think they'll be a better team in 2025 than they were in 2024, the actual record won't be that much different. But I think it will feel different.

2024 was a year filled with regression from young talent, from their "stars", and a patchwork pitching staff that got the job done but lacked a long-term future or upside.

2025's team can win a similar amount of games due to an emerging young core and projectable pitching staff, leaving fans with hope and optimism about what is to come rather than dread of the unknown like this past offseason.

It won't be all rainbows and butterflies in this scenario, but I do think fans will feel a lot better about this team come next offseason than they do right now. That's my prediction. Could it go south? Absolutely. But I do think Bloom is going to inherit an exciting team next offseason and will get to work molding it around his vision for the organization's future.

I'd love to hear your predictions for the Cardinals in 2025 (good, bad, or ugly!). I'll be posting this story on X and Facebook, so leave a comment there and I'd love to read your thoughts!