10 New Year's predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Prediction #2: Lars Nootbaar will play in 130+ games, finally make good on his promise

Last year I predicted that Lars Nootbaar would be the Cardinals' best player in 2024. While I'm not necessarily going to predict that again in 2025, I do think this is the year he finally stays healthy and produces like the hype has been saying he can.

For years now, people have been clamoring about the potential Nootbaar has and how the underlying metrics say his offensive numbers are about to explode. Well, believe it or not, 2024 was actually his best year yet under the hood, and if he can stay on the field, Nootbaar is going to be an exciting player for this Cardinals' team.

Here is how Nootbaar ranked in those projectable categories in 2024:

xwOBA - 89th percentile
xBA - 77th percentile
xSLG - 78th percentile
Average exit velocity - 88th percentile
Barrel% - 66th percentile
Squared-Up% - 88th percentile
Chase% - 100th percentile
Whiff% - 82nd percentile
K% - 65th percentile
BB% - 98th percentile

In summary, Nootbaar's expected numbers had him in the top third in baseball in wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage while hitting the ball harder than basically 90% of qualified hitters. Not only that, Nootbaar was the best in baseball at not chasing the ball out of the zone, he rarely swung and missed, struck out less frequently than the average hitter, and was in the top 2% of hitters at drawing walks.

These are all encouraging signs when it comes to offensive production. And when you put them all into one player, it's no wonder the Cardinals continue to believe in the talent they see in Nootbaar.

But, he's got to stay on the field to make good on that. We've seen with Nootbaar that he is very much a rhythm hitter. Once he's in the lineup consistently, things get going, and he heats up quickly. But he's far too often falling back on the injured list. But I believe 2025 is the year things change for Nootbaar, he's available daily, and he has a true breakout year.

Prediction #3: The Cardinals' young offensive core is established, with some taking on major roles while others losing their favor with the club

2025 is about the kids, and more specifically, the young bats will be on display the most.

Outside of Nootbaar, names like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, and Pedro Pages are all going to be examined closely by the organization to see whether or not they can be relied upon moving forward. I think it's safe to say that Winn and Donovan are already a part of the Cardinals' future, and I just predicted Nootbaar was going to be healthy enough to stick in that group as well.

But when it comes to the other names on this list, they all have real question marks that need to be answered this season for St. Louis to count them as a major part of their core moving forward. Any of them could take steps back or just fail to show enough promise to stand out in that way. But any of them could also break out in a real way. That's what's so interesting about this young core.

I really don't want to pick the specific names since I could really see just about any of them establish themselves or fall out of favor. If I had to pick a top three that I think will break out though, it would be Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Ivan Herrera (on top of Winn, Donovan, and Nootbaar who I believe will be safe). Each of those guys has All-Star ceilings and can be true difference-makers for St. Louis. That doesn't mean all of them will reach those heights, but I have confidence they'll at least establish themselves as valuable secondary pieces, if not true leaders of that young core.