St. Louis Cardinals: Five Pitchers That Can Fill The Reyes Sized Hole

The news of the St. Louis Cardinals top prospect Alex Reyes missing the whole season due to a UCL tear was shocking and left a hole in the pitching rotation.

There seemed to be a lot of hype about the first full season of Alex Reyes with the St. Louis Cardinals.  With good reason, he showed great promise in his short Major League stint last season, along with being the number six prospect according to the original release of MLB Pipelines top 100 prospects.  Since the injury news, he has dropped to 14.

Reyes was likely to be the number five starter to fill out the back end of the rotation.  Now he is gone for the year, there will be some decisions to make about who to take over the number five spot.  It was a spot that wasn’t outright given to Reyes, but he was certainly the favorite to take it over.

This injury also means that fans won’t get to see how Reyes fares against some of the best talent in the world.  He was set to compete with fellow pitcher Carlos Martinez on the Dominican Republic team at the World Baseball Classic.

While there are still options to sign off of the Free Agent market, it seems more likely General Manager John Mozeliak will look internally to fill the void.  Since Reyes was projected to be the number 5 starter, there should be plenty of players that can be signed who will be serviceable.  There are, surprisingly, quite a few options to consider moving forward into the season.

When looking internally there will be a question of where to look. Several relievers have starting experience throughout the minors but the starters in the minor can’t be forgotten either.  It will really come down to who can perform when given the opportunity.  But without question there will be an opportunity for a player who previously did not have one.

The timing of the news means two things.  First, the Cardinals can expect to have Reyes back ready to go next season, assuming the Tommy John surgery goes well.  Plenty of players have come back and been just as good as before.  But some lose there effectiveness, such as former Cardinals closer Jason Motte.

The second thing is that Spring Training games have become a showcase for those vying for that fifth starter spot.  The competition will expand from two guys, Reyes and Michael Wacha, to several possible players.  Some more likely options than others.

Each of the players mentioned will be graded on a scale of high, medium, or low likelihood of being a fifth starter at some point throughout the season.  So who will be the guys in competition? The options are plentiful and while the answer may seem obvious, Spring Training will put a them under a microscope.

Marco Gonzales-Medium

It was very recently that Gonzales got back on a mound after he received Tommy John surgery last April.  If he were to take over a spot in the rotation for the St. Louis Cardinals, it wouldn’t be until late May at the earliest, as he is projected to start throwing in a live game in May.

Considering the surgery Gonzales is recovering from, he too can be considered an injury risk, much like Wacha.  But a repaired elbow will be assumed to hold up for at least a season if it can get through the first few outings.

The reason Gonzales is given a medium likelihood is because he was used as a starter in six of his eleven appearances for St. Louis.  But frankly, the stars will have to align for him to make the big league roster this season.  His spot is not guaranteed coming off a surgery, but a Reyes injury opens up his opportunity.

Without a doubt, Gonzales will begin the season in the minors.  That will be a rehab assignment to start, but it will likely turn into his season long assignment.  In order for him to break into the rotation, he will have to come off of injury being at least as effective as he was prior to the UCL tear, while also keeping his health.  That is step one.

Step two is that whoever has the starter spot will have to either get hurt or not be playing well.  Gonzales will be getting a late start, putting him at a disadvantage.  Should he become a starter in St. Louis again, he won’t be there at the start of the season.  But if things go right, he can’t be counted out of the race to start for the Cardinals.

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Trevor Rosenthal-Medium

Part of the talks from the St. Louis Cardinals for stretching out Rosenthal involve the possibility of him starting a few games.  He would appear to be one of the front runners to give Wacha some competition for the spot.  Will he? Probably not, but he will at least get a shot.

A medium likelihood is actually fairly generous.  I give him that because he will be stretched out during Spring Training and may get a starting opportunity for the first time since Triple-A in 2012.  Because of the hiatus from starting, it will create a learning curve for Rosenthal as a starter in the bigs.

At best, Rosy may be a potential replacement for Wacha, if necessary.  Other than that it is hard to project Rosenthal in the rotation come Opening Day.  Going from a reliever mindset to a starter mindset for the first time in five years may pose an issue.  That being said, in 17 starts in Double-A, he posted a 2.78 ERA going 8-6.

He was called up to Triple-A in 2012 where he started three games with an ERA of 4.20.  After that, he was strictly a reliever.  It will be a matter of if Rosenthal can find a secondary pitch to compliment his fastball.  He was exposed in Triple-A because he can’t just blow fastballs by hitters the second and third time through the lineup.

His usage of his fastball since breaking into the majors is 77.3 percent.  That is way too high for a starter.  Carlos Martinez has an average fastball velocity two MPH slower than Rosy, and only throws his fastball 60 percent of the time.

There are glaring issues with Rosenthal taking a starting role, and he will more than likely be an extended middle relief role.  But if Gonzales doesn’t come back at the top of his game, and Wacha is not getting the job done, Rosenthal will possibly be given a shot to prove he can start.

Luke Weaver-High

Weaver started eight games for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016 with an ERA of 5.70. Despite the high number, he is the number two prospect in the organization, right behind Reyes.  He will certainly be a big part of the conversation for the Opening Day rotation.

Again, I would project Wacha to take the job, but Weaver will be right there behind him.  Along with Rosenthal, Weaver will be a front runner to take the job if Wacha doesn’t.  In fact Weaver is much more likely to take the spot than Rosy.

What Weaver shows is the depth of young pitching the Cardinals have.  To have the top prospect go down, only to have the number two prospect waiting to possibly take his place is not a bad backup plan.  In fact, Weaver cracked MLB Pipline’s Top 100 prospects as well at number 81.

An ERA above five shows that Weaver still needs to settle in.  But he will.  His career ERA in the Minor Leagues is 1.30 and he has blazed quite a path on his way to St. Louis.  All he really needs is the opportunity and now he has it.  This injury could be how the 23 year old becomes a mainstay in the rotation.

His ceiling is projected as a number three starter but might be able to surpass that. Regardless, as it stands, he will become a solid starter for years to come.  With Adam Wainwright aging, a future rotation could feature Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes at the top, with Weaver holding down the middle.

The closing of Reyes’ door for the 2017 season opens up a door for Weaver.  It changes the conversation from Wacha or Reyes, to Wacha or Weaver.  There is a very real possibility Weaver will see the rotation this season, even if it isn’t set that way for Opening Day.

Brett Cecil-Low

That’s right, the newest member of the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen.  No I am not crazy, Cecil would very much be a last resort option.  But it is worth noting that he broke into the league as a starter back in 2010, and was a starter through 2012.

In 2010 and 2011, Cecil was used only as a starter and kept his ERA in the low fours.  His starter numbers won’t blow anyone away, but he can be serviceable.  After nine starts in 2012, he was moved into the bullpen, where he has found more success.

If absolutely needed, Cecil has a curveball that he throws more than his fastball.  So he would be able to give a different look to hitters the second time through the order.  That being said, he is a much better option out of the bullpen, and he absolutely should stay there.  Something big would have to happen to the Cardinals potential starters for Cecil to be a real option.

The only reason to even mention Cecil here is because he brings experience as a starter with 74 career starts.  To put that in perspective, he has appeared in 330 games.  But still poses a potential option if needed.

Next: The Recovery Outlook for Alex Reyes

This number five starter job will go to either Weaver or Wacha.  Everyone else is a backup option.  But the one positive is that there are plenty of options for the St. Louis Cardinals.  While the potential of Reyes may surpass what any of these options will do, there won’t be a terribly big drop off of talent. Now, it is all up to who performs during Spring Training.