Five Reasons the St. Louis Cardinals Can Win the World Series

Holliday back to the same ole Holliday

I know my colleague Michael Miles talked about what happens if Holliday doesn’t make it through the season healthy, and that is a very real possibility. However, I want to tell you that I believe Holliday makes it through the season this year. Holliday is a physical specimen and takes rigorous care of his body. Holliday does have an injury history with the Cardinals, but they are fluke injuries that don’t concern me about his overall ability to be healthy.

When Matt Holliday went down with a quad injury last season, it did not spell doom for the Cardinals’ consistent producer in left field. His leg didn’t fall off and he doesn’t need a cane (as he told Fox Sports Midwest’s Jim Hayes). Yes there is a smidge of concern regarding the back tightening from earlier, but Holliday was actually at first yesterday and nothing was said regarding him having anymore back issues (I think that was code for I don’t want to play today).

However, one thing is for sure. Matt Holliday will be back to being a competitor and a consistent performer for the Cardinals. The only projection that does not have Holliday with a wRC+ above 120 is ZiPS and that projection is 119. These projections actually have Holliday pegged for 15-17 homers for the Cards this year, which will be welcome for the Cards.

The biggest thing Holliday will bring is his OBP, which was at .417 before he went down with his first quad injury. Yes, the power was down (10 Doubles, 3 Homers), but Holliday should be in good condition to get at least 30 doubles and 15-20 homers, which is fine.

Getting Holliday’s consistency back into the lineup will be a good reason why this team can have a better offense this season. I think that when we get to the end of the season, we will find that with Holliday’s numbers helped the offense get over the hump.

Next: Shutdown Pen

The league’s best bullpen

Barring any injuries, this bullpen will be the best bullpen in the league. Last season, the Cardinals had a bullpen that had a couple good options in Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal, but aside from those two the bullpen was rather average and at times bad. Seth Maness struggled with a .345 BABIP that saw his ERA rise up to 4.26.

Randy Choate was Randy Choate and often misused, as he had a 3.95 ERA through 71 appearances. Carlos Villanueva was a bright spot, as he had a career low ERA at 2.95, but the Cardinals smartly decided not to bring him back, as he had a below average FIP at 3.74 and a xFIP of 4.06.

The Cardinals brought in Jonathan Broxton and Steve Cishek around the deadline, hoping that they would be effective back end options and neither were very impressive. Surprisingly, Broxton was brought back, as he was signed for this year and next and will be a mainstay in the middle of the bullpen this season.

However, this season the ‘pen will be one of the best. Not only will Rosenthal and Siegrist be back this season, but they will have help. The Cardinals brought in Seung-hwan Oh from Korea, who has been a dominant closer in Asia for years, so much so he earned the nickname “The Final Boss”.

Not only that, but Jordan Walden is healthy and ready to be the dominant setup man the Cardinals thought he would be when they traded Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins for him and Jason Heyward.

The kicker in all of this is Tyler Lyons, who pitched 18.1 innings out of the ‘pen last year, totaling an ERA of 2.95. While he is not a good option as a starter, he will be effective out of the bullpen. With the Cardinals’ rotation as effective as it is, there won’t be too many instances where they need him as a long reliever, but the Cardinals will have that option.

They will also be able to use him against righties and lefties successfully out of the bullpen allowing for him to pitch multiple innings if needed. He will be a fixture of strength, much in the way that Villanueva was for the Cards last season.

Next: Young Guns

Young players coming into their own on offense

Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz are all 25 or younger.

Wong has the potential to breakout this season, as he has improved every year so far. We know that he wasn’t ready for the long grind of a full season last season, and he was gassed at the end of the season. However, he has said that he has made precautions to go against this. Even with the Jhonny Peralta injury, there are still options to back Wong up on a more regular basis.

We got a glimpse of what Randal Grichuk is capable of last season, he played in only 103 games and hit .276/.329/.548 with 17 homers, 23 doubles, and 7 triples, for a total of 47 extra-base hits. However, in order to continue his high average and OBP, he is going to need to cut down on the strikeouts, as he had a 31.4% strikeout rate last season.

The projections are fair to Grichuk as they have his strikeout rate dipping, and the homers rising a tad, but I think Grichuk has the potential for a higher average and more homers than they give him credit for.

Stephen Piscotty was a hitting machine once he got the call up to the big leagues, with a slash of .305/.359/.494 and 26 extra base-hits in just 63 games. A full season of Piscotty figures to be very good, I would expect at least double the amount of extra-base hits, maybe even more. This means that 20 homers is not totally out of the question for the young right fielder.

I have talked and talked about Aledmys Diaz, and even spoke yesterday that it was his time to prove to the team that he can consistently perform at the major league level. He will be competing for the starting job at short with the loss to Peralta, and a strong spring could see him win the job. If that’s the case the Cardinals will have another 10-15 homers from their shortstop and close to 30 doubles or more.

That said, this is the Cardinals’ young offensive core. Then considering that Tommy Pham is under 30, as is Greg Garcia, Matt Adams, and Jedd Gyorko makes the Cardinals look even stronger.

This combined with veterans like Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, and Yadier Molina should make the Cardinals a strong team to deal with this season.

Next: Rotation of Aces

The Rotation of Dominance is Back

Last season, the Cardinals’ rotation was historic. While it would be hard to expect as historic this season, it is absolutely possible. The Cardinals lost John Lackey and Lance Lynn from the rotation but have gained Adam Wainwright and Mike Leake. Not to mention Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney, and Alexander Reyes waiting their turn in the minors.

While John Lackey was great for the Cardinals, it is hard to expect him to do the same as he did last season, with his 82.6% LOB%. However, having Adam Wainwright back in the rotation gives the team the formidable ace that it lacked last season. Before his Achilles injury last season Wainwright was off to his own historic season, and was as nasty as ever with his 1.44 ERA through four starts. The season before, Wainwright went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA, his career best.

In baseball years you might as well consider Wainwright 30 and 1/2, as he missed almost half of a season in 2008, all of 2011, and most 2015. This puts Wainwright on track to have plenty of gas in the tank for a great run this season.

Oh, then you throw in Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez who were both very good last season. Michael Wacha has the potential to be very good this season, if he can command that fastball, and stay healthy.

All told, the Cardinals’ rotation looks to rival the Mets’ as the league’s best rotation yet again. This will surely get them far this season, and once they are in the playoffs it will move them right along to the World Series. Even if they face those “young Cubs’ hitters”, good pitching can beat these Cubs (in case you missed the 2015 NLCS). This will be the greatest strength for the Cardinals this season.

Next: A Formidable Bench

The Bench we’ve been waiting for

How many times have the Cardinals entered the offseason claiming they are going to upgrade the bench and then get to Opening Day with a Pete Kozma, Tony Cruz, or Daniel Descalso still on the bench? I will answer this for you. Too many times.

We have been waiting for them to truly help this bench for a long time, and they kept trotting guys like Kozma out there. The Cardinals figure to enter Opening Day with a bench consisting of Tommy Pham, Matt Adams/Brandon Moss, Jedd Gyroko/Aledmys Diaz, Greg Garcia, and Brayan Pena. There’s not a player on this bench that I would replace, all are upgrades from what the Cardinals dealt with last season.

For far too long the Cardinals kept guys who were unimpressive and offered little to no relief to the starters, making the team vulnerable to injury and fatigue. This season will be different. This may not be the best bench in the league but it is certainly one of the best and it will be a position of strength for this team in many ways.

We won’t have to worry about the offense falling off when Yadier Molina needs a day off, we won’t worry about losing offense when Tommy Pham steps in for one of the outfielders. In fact the offense may even see a boost when he gets a start.

This is where the Cardinals will see the most improvement this season, and it will pay dividends come playoff time, it will help propel them to what I believe will be their 12th World Championship.

You can think negatively about this team all you want, but the more and more this team shapes up, I think we have something special on hand. The Cubs’ offense is good no doubt, but they simply don’t have all of the other pieces that the Cardinals have. The Pirates will be aiming to catch up all season, and I believe they will finish behind both teams.

Next: The Peralta injury will benefit the Cardinals

Regardless, your St. Louis Cardinals are poised for a great season, Cardinals’ fans. I hope you are as excited as I am about this season!