United Cardinal Bloggers discuss Matt Holliday

Mark Sherrard: At age 34, I don’t see his numbers improving much this year, but I also have not seen anything to indicate a decline either. I would pencil him in for .295/.380/.500 with 25 homers and 100 rbi’s. The addition of Peralta will help his rbi numbers, as I see Jhonny hitting in the second spot, behind Matt Carpenter and with Allen Craig, Yadier Molina and Matt Adams behind him, I can see him score 100 runs as well.

Joe Schwarz: Most projection systems have 2014 as the start of age-related decline for Matt Holliday. However, these projection systems don’t take into account how fit Holliday still is at his age. He doesn’t eat fried foods and works out harder more than most football players. Thus, is there a chance that he has some decline? Maybe a little bit in his home run power, but I don’t see much of a drop in his batting average or on-base percentage.

If you follow me on Twitter, I am a firm believer in having Holliday hit in the two-hole because of his terrific OBP–one of the highest on the team. Will it happen? Probably not, but if it does, his RBI count may decrease in 2014, but at the same time, he will score more runs.

I have Holliday penciled in for a .304/.385/.478 slash line with a .378 wOBA and an fWAR around 4 or so. His home run total will hover just above or below 20 with 85 RBI and 92 runs scored.

Matt Whitener: Simply put, he’s the best left fielder in baseball and the most undervalued player that is the best at his position of any in the game. And oddly enough, that under-appreciation of him actually starts in St. Louis, where more often that not, players are truly appreciated more roundly than in most other cities.

But Holliday gets an odd treatment that is spawned by a combination of his contract amount, his lack of “it” moment at the highest level, the fact that he is steady over spectacular and his weaker points in comparison to his strengths. We’ve seen this phenomena before; most noticeably J.D. Drew comes to mind, but any idea that Holliday isn’t earning his keep is asinine.

I see an uptick for Holliday this year, considering the fact that his first half last season was a clear outlier to his usual standard he’s met with amazing regularity.

From a statistical perspective, I see a .305/25/105 standard stat slash, with an OBP in the .385 area. The drawbacks are likely another 20+ double play season and his defense continuing to hover around the -1 range factor level. But really, that’s not what he’s here to do, and in the end, a 3 Win Above Replacement level year is what I see and would expect him to be, as usual.

Dan Buffa: Matt Holliday is a model of consistency, as Whitener cleanly pointed out. Expectations for him coming into his 12th season and 5th with the Cards, I expect nothing less than the usual standard from the big fella. 145 games played, an on base percentage of at least .375, a batting average of .305, 115 RBI(with better speed on team at bottom of the order comes better chances for the top of the order later in the game) and around 25 home runs. You don’t get mind blowing stats from Holliday but that you do get a guaranteed level of production that should be appreciated with the other insane outfielder contracts from his era. Anybody looking up Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth’s overall production since their big deals sure can attest. And for all the purists who are barking at the news of Robinson Cano jogging down the line(same crowd who got on Pujols about it here), they can be satisfied in knowing no Cardinal on the team hustles down the line harder than Holliday. Sure he doesn’t win gold gloves in left field, but he makes the plays and doesn’t make stupid cutoff throw decisions. He is a prototypical slugger who can get on base, score runs, and knock runners in. He is clearly one of the best signings from Mo’s time here.

John Nagel: I am with Joe, I would love to see Holliday out of the 2 hole. Many of you have shared similar views that I have in that he is consistent. I do worry that his decline may start this year, but it should be a small decline and he still should be around .300 with around 20 bombs.

Matthew Phillip: +1 to both Ben’s comment regarding defense and to Joe’s comment regarding batting the #2 spot.

As for defense, two comparable players, Luis Gonzalez and Lance Berkman, give reason to pause about whether Holliday’s offense — even if it remains constant — will sufficiently offset his fielding. Gonzalez’s fielding swiftly declined after his age-34 season, so perhaps Holliday has one more year. Berkman, of course, aged out of left field by the time he was Holliday’s age. I’m not sure if first base is an option this year for Holliday, but I’m guessing he’ll need to buy a mitt for Spring Training 2015. And perhaps Mike Matheny can invite Keith Hernandez down as a special instructor.