Way-too-early Cardinals Opening Day roster projection

Can you believe that the St. Louis Cardinals are just 12 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Jupiter, Florida for spring training? Even crazier - we are just 55 days away from Opening Day!

When the Cardinals report to camp here in under two weeks, we'll begin to see storylines bubble up and the Cardinals' true intentions with their roster become evident.

Remember 2023, when Tyler O'Neill showed up to camp ready to win the center field job, paving the way for Jordan Walker to make the roster as well? Or when the Cardinals showed up to camp last year and decided they needed veteran depth behind Masyn Winn, prompting them to sign Brandon Crawford? Camp reveals things we did not necessarily see coming, and the same could be true this year, even with their stagnant roster.

I wanted to have some fun today and take a stab at what I believe the Cardinals' Opening Day roster will look like as things currently stand.

Here is my way-to-early Opening Day roster projection for the St. Louis Cardinals

Catcher (2) - Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages

Just missed the cut: Jimmy Crooks III and Gavin Collins

No surprises here. Well, unless you haven't kept up with the Cardinals this offseason and did not know that Willson Contreras is now a first baseman.

Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages will hold down the fort behind the plate in 2025, and how the Cardinals divvy up their playing time will be one of the biggest storylines to watch. Herrera was far and away the better hitter of the two last year (in fact, he was the Cardinals' second-best hitter to only Contreras!), but Pages was clearly preferred by manager Oliver Marmol and the pitching staff when it came to calling games behind the plate.

Cardinals pitchers did average almost a run lower of an ERA with Pages calling pitches, but the concerns around Ivan Herrera's arm strength, which are fair, are not much different with Pages. While the Cardinals pitchers' ability to hold runners may have been a greater issue than we've given them credit for, Pages also struggled to control the running game. If Herrera has made strides in that area this offseason, then there is no reason why he shouldn't be the everyday catcher.

Pages is at worst a quality backup in this league, and I do think he's probably a bottom-tier starting catcher going into 2025. But Herrera has already shown traits at the plate that can make him a top catcher in all of baseball, and while there are a few flaws with his defense, there are also things to like about his ability behind the plate - namely his framing and blocking ability.

If one of those two catchers goes down during the season, we may end up seeing 2024 Texas League MVP and borderline top-100 prospect Jimmy Crooks III make his MLB debut for St. Louis. Crooks has an exciting bat like Herrera but also intrigues scouts with his ability behind the plate.

My guess is that St. Louis will want him to get a lot of seasoning at Memphis before they even use him as an injury replacement, so if something happens to Herrera or Pages in camp or early in the season, we may see Gavin Collins first. Collins, 29, has not made an MLB debut yet either but represents some veteran catching depth in Memphis for St. Louis.

Infield (6) - Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and Luken Baker

Just missed the cut: Jose Barrero and Jose Fermin

As things stand today, it looks like Nolan Arenado is going to be the Cardinals starting third baseman come Opening Day. Kind of wild!

Just a few months ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Arenado was going to be on a different team come 2025, but barring a last-minute deal coming together, the future Hall of Famer is going to try and get things back on track with the Birds on the Bat.

This will shake up the Cardinals' plans with their position player group significantly. With third base now occupied by Arenado, Gorman likely remains at second base full-time as he attempts to rebound from his own rough year in 2024, and Thomas Saggese's opportunites become a lot more limited. I actually think there is a scenario where Saggese does not make the Opening Day roster if Arenado is there, but based on how I am predicting the outfield will shake out, he is still needed and will find some playing time.

Willson Contreras finds a new home at first base this year, and while Alec Burleson will get the occasional start there, it seems likely that Luke Baker will be squeezed out of any regular role other than a pinch hitter off the bench. Considering how lefty-heavy the Cardinals are, he could get quite a bit of run in that role.

Masyn Winn will look to follow up his awesome rookie campaign with another strong showing in 2025, and Saggese seems to be in line to spell him whenever that is needed. If Saggese does not make the roster, I would expect Jose Fermin to take his place, or perhaps Jose Barrero can show enough in camp to steal the final position player spot.

There is a lot of potential in this group, but ideally, the Cardinals will find a new home for Arenado soon that helps free up plenty of playing time for Gorman, Saggese, and the rest of the young position players on their roster.

Outfield (5) - Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Michael Siani, and Alec Burleson

Just missed the cut: Victor Scott II and Michael Koperniak

The Arenado situation impacts more than just the Cardinals' outfield alignment as we look ahead toward spring training and what their Opening Day roster could look like.

While most people are laser-focused on Michael Siani and Victor Scott II duking it out for the starting center field role, I am of the belief that Lars Nootbaar will pass them both on the depth chart and end up being the Cardinals' Opening Day center fielder, creating opportunities for Brendan Donovan in left field and freeing up the DH spot for someone like Alec Burleson.

Especially with Arenado still in town, I don't think it's in the Cardinals' best interest to block any of their promising young bats, if they can help it. While Scott fits the category of a promising young player, my guess is they'd like to see him get more seasoning in Memphis this year, and if Nootbaar can stay healthy and show he can handle playing center field, he's clearly their best option out there.

Michael Siani is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, but he was nearly 40% below league average at the plate last year. He really fits the mold of a fourth outfielder, and considering how much rotation we could see in this Cardinals group, he'll still draw plenty of starts in center field in this scenario.

The right field job is Jordan Walker's, and I expect him to play there all season, whether or not he sinks or swims. Donovan will likely still kick around the field even as the projected left fielder in my scenario, which gives some opportunity for Burleson to get starts in left field or Nootbaar to slide to left and Siani to start some games.

This is a big year for the Cardinals outfield group. Walker and Nootbaar especially need to prove themselves to the front office to be major parts of the club's future.

Rotation (5) - Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Michael McGreevy

Just missed the cut: Quinn Matthews and Zack Thompson

Despite interest in arms like Steven Matz and Erick Fedde from rival teams, the Cardinals are entering camp with the four veteran starters and Andre Pallante projected to lead their rotation.

Pallante, Sonny Gray, and Erick Fedde are locks to be in the rotation, barring injury. Miles Mikolas is likely going to have a spot as well unless he hits the injured list or has a horrible camp. The only starter that actually seems to have a chance of dropping from the rotation if that five-man group remains healthy is Matz.

Michael McGreevy was excellent in his short sample size last year and is in pole position to win a rotation spot if he performs well in camp. Considering the Cardinals have placed Matz in the bullpen multiple times before, I really don't think they'll hesitate to do it again. Matz has the flexibility to bounce between a reliever and starter role if needed, so if there is a young arm the Cardinals think is ready to roll with a spot in the rotation, I think that's the best route to take.

Outside of McGreevy, names like Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Quinn Mathews, Drew Rom, Gordon Graceffo, and Sem Robberse are names to watch in camp to grab a spot in the rotation. At some point in 2025, prospects like Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, and Tekoah Roby could as well. My hope is that whenever any of those arms are ready to start, outside of Gray and Pallante, the Cardinals look to clear rotation spots to give them opportunities.

But to start the season? I don't see much space clearing up unless injuries happen. The Cardinals' reluctance to move any arms via trade this offseason is a mistake for that very reason. There are too many arms that we could name who have a legitimate argument to start next year. While some will inevitably get chances, I have a feeling we will be frustrated at the overall lack of chances that the young arms will have.

Bullpen (8) - Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Ryan Fernandez, Matthew Liberatore, Steven Matz, John King, Chris Roycroft, and Kyle Leahy

Just missed the cut: Gordon Graceffo, Riley O'Brien, and Ryan Loutos

Many of us expected Ryan Helsley to be traded this offseason. Instead, he's set to lock down games for the Cardinals once again in a contract year. His presence in the bullpen will be huge for helping the relief core repeat its high level of performance in 2025.

Last year, the big four of Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero, and Ryan Fernandez helped lead a top-10 bullpen in baseball that helped the Cardinals win so many close games. While the Cardinals are hoping their lineup is better in 2025 so they don't have to play in so many of those again, they'll still need their bullpen to perform if they want to compete.

The Cardinals did lose Kittredge from their bullpen this offseason, and both Romero and Fernandez struggled in the second half. There is still talent among that relief core, but it is hard to have the same confidence in that group that I had last summer.

I do believe some of their young prospects like Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence, and perhaps even a Cooper Hjerpe or Tekoah Roby could be factors at some point, and maybe they help elevate the upside that group has. While Liberatore will have a chance to earn a rotation spot, he was great in relief last year and could be a weapon again in 2025.

In this scenario, I have Matz sliding into the bullpen, where his stuff could play up in short or multi-inning stints, but he can still jump back into the rotation as needed. I don't love that this means there are four lefties in the bullpen, so maybe they would option Liberatore or John King in this scenario, or use that as a reason to start Matz over McGreevy.

The only sure fire options seem to be Helsley, Romero, and Fernandez at this point. Chris Roycroft and Kyle Leahy seem like strong options, but they'll have to earn those spots once again in camp. Don't be shocked if Riley O'Brien or Ryan Loutos make a strong push, and there are a number of others I did not even mention who could factor in as well.

Projected lineups

vs. RHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. LF Brendan Donovan
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. CF Lars Nootbaar
6. C Ivan Herrera
7. DH Alec Burleson
8. 2B Nolan Gorman
9. RF Jordan Walker

Against right-handed pitching, expect the Cardinals to deploy the full force of their left-handed bats. Donovan, Nootbaar, Gorman, and Burleson help balance the Cardinals' right-handed bats well, and with how much variance is in this lineup, it is hard to predict who will slot in where.

My guess is the Cardinals let Winn lead off again at least to start this year, and the duo of Contreras and Arenado seem like a lock to bat third and fourth to begin the season. Even off of a down year, I expect Arenado to have the first crack at batting cleanup, and he'll likely get a long runway there unless he struggles badly again.

See how much deeper this lineup is without Pages and Siani in it? I would love for the Cardinals to learn in this direction, as I actually believe it helps take pressure off the young bats as a whole if the entire lineup is littered with guys who could hit this year if things go right.

vs. LHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. CF Lars Nootbaar
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Ivan Herrera
6. RF Jordan Walker
7. DH Nolan Gorman
8. 2B Thomas Saggese
9. LF Brendan Donovan

Things get interesting when you look at the lineup against left-handed pitching. The Cardinals struggled big time against southpaws in 2024, so I expect Oliver Marmol to look to counteract that with platoons in 2025.

Saggese gets the starting nod against lefties here, with Alec Burleson falling to the bench after a terrible showing against lefties in 2024. There is some lineup shuffling as well, with Nootbaar moving up to the two-hole while Donovan slides all the way down to bat ninth. Donovan can serve as the "second lead-off" hitter in that role, especially since he's been below league average against lefties in his career. Then when a right-hander comes into the game, he can be an on-base machine for the top of the lineup that follows. Nootbaar has actually been really solid against left-handed pitchers in his career.

Gorman likely begins the year starting against left-handed pitching, but if he struggles, they could bench him in those spots in favor of a different option. I could see this being a spot where the Cardinals DH Herrera and start Pages.