5 decisions the Cardinals would make right now if they were serious about a reset

The hot topic right now in St. Louis Cardinals content spaces is critiquing the organization's attempt at a "reset" this offseason. No one seems to like what they have done with the big league roster, and many are rightfully pointing out that the lack of activity there has actually gone against their overall messaging as a club.

The Cardinals do not need to "tank" this year. First, it wouldn't even benefit them (they cannot have a pick in the top ten this year per new CBA rules after having a selection in the top ten in consecutive years), but even if it would, they have enough young talent to try and be competitive. But here's where the Cardinals' desire to "shock some people" runs counter to that - holding on to certain veteran players to win games this year has a stronger negative impact on their future than a positive impact on their present.

Yes, they'll be the first to tell you that the Nolan Arenado trade fiasco has hurt their ability to do more, but their self-imposed embargos are their own doing. Don't let them fool you by saying they are "stuck". Sure, they are stuck with Arenado right now, but if they really don't "have" to move his money, then that means they are free to subtract from their roster in other ways or add smaller pieces (or extensions) as they please.

If the Cardinals were truly serious about this reset, they would make these five moves right now

#1 - Trade Erick Fedde

I'll get into the roster construction piece of his in a moment, but even in a vacuum, trading Fedde now while his value is high makes way more sense than holding onto him. Well, actually, trading him months ago would have made the most sense, but trading him today is the second-best option.

I've already detailed this in another piece, but considering what contenders (and even non-contenders) were willing to pay for starting pitchers in both free agency and the trade market this offseason, Fedde has a lot of value if he were to be moved. Fedde pitched like a true number three starter last year, and since he is set to make just $7.5 million in 2025, he's 60% cheaper than what middle or even back-end starters are signing for this winter.

If a club acquired Fedde in a trade before the offseason ends, they would also have the option to give him a qualifying offer next offseason, which would help them recuperate some of his value if they did not resign him (which also helps his trade value further).

Sure, Chaim Bloom could be interested in the draft pick the Cardinals could receive by letting Fedde walk next offseason, but in his case specifically, the risk of him regressing in 2025 is far too great in my opinion to bank on getting that draft selection out of him. Fedde made real changes to his game while he was in the KBO, so yes, he is a different pitcher, but he doesn't have those elite traits that teams are rightfully after, and so I can easily see a world where things don't go well for him in 2025 and the Cardinals get little to nothing in return for him.

Trade Fedde. It makes way too much sense.

#2 - Extend Brendan Donovan

Back to ownership and John Mozeliak's comments about payroll. If they do not need to cut salary elsewhere if they cannot move Arenado's contract, then that implies they've trimmed enough salary to appease ownership and their expected revenue losses this year.

But if they are able to move Arenado, or if they actually were motivated to move a Fedde, Steven Matz, or others from their roster, that would surely free up cash flow to extend a player like Brendan Donovan.

I understand why the Cardinals do not want to hand out long-term deals this offseason with Mozeliak in his final year in charge. With Matz, Fedde, Ryan Helsley, and Miles Mikolas coming off the books after 2025 along with potentially some of Arenado's money, Mozeliak is setting up Bloom to have as much financial flexibility as possible. But with the major reduction in payroll this year, the club would be foolish not to use some of that space and offset future costs by extending someone like Brendan Donovan.

Mozeliak has said they are open to exploring extensions during spring training, and Bloom would obviously influence if that were to happen. The last time the Cardinals handed out an extension to a pre-arbitration or arbitration player during camp was in 2016 with Kolten Wong, so they would definitely be breaking out of recent norms if they did so with Donovan while they are in Jupiter.

Donovan needs to be a part of this core long-term. And the Cardinals seem to agree, as they have "shut down" conversations with teams who call to express interest in Donovan. If they like him that much, then why hold off on an extension? It's just another example that fans can point to as the Cardinals having one foot in both directions.

Donovan, since coming up in 2022, has been top 15 in all of baseball in on-base percentage, won a Gold Glove, is reliable at five different positions, has grown into a clubhouse leader, and is almost 20% above league average offensively. Donovan is the exact kind of player the Cardinals should want to have around long-term, both on and off the field.

So, instead of waiting to sign him and seeing that dollar number only rise, why not lock him in now long-term and save some money on the back end? Even if they were to pay up for him a bit right now, spreading more of that money to this year and next year will save them dollars on the back end of the deal, when they supposedly want to get payroll back to where it was. From a competitive side of things, having Donovan at a lower AAV when the Cardinals are back to competing will only help them to have more financial flexibility when that time comes.

I really don't understand why a deal is not already done. The Cardinals need to get Donovan's agent on the phone right now. (Bonus: They should try and lock up Masyn Winn, too).

#3 - Give the young arms as many starts as they can handle

So here's the continuation of the Fedde point. Fedde should be moved, full stop, because he will get the Cardinals a real return, and it would free up opportunities for other young arms in their system.

Trading Steven Matz or cutting bait with Miles Mikolas is not as pressing to me. I think you could get something for Matz, but not enough to force the issue. Mikolas is not going to net the Cardinals anything of value, so they don't have to cut bait now.

If the Cardinals were to trade Fedde now, then they'd project to have a rotation of Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Michael McGreevy, and Steven Matz. If any of those guys went down with an injury, one of Quinn Mathews, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Sem Robberse, Gordon Graceffo, Roddery Munoz, or Drew Rom can fill in for them. At some point in 2025, Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, Tekoah Roby, or other young arms could become serious contenders as well. I don't see a shortage of options, do you?

Even if all of those guys aren't ready or multiple injuries happen and their depth is zapped, they can always claim someone off of waivers or sign a veteran-free agent. I know they'd like to win next year, but if they have that many rotation injuries, it probably was not going to be a good year anyway.

But you know what could result in a "good year" on the field but a "bad year" for their stated goals? If Mikolas, Matz, and Fedde are able to make plenty of starts in 2025, blocking young arms from breaking into the rotation and showing what they have to offer.

The Cardinals have *mostly* freed up opportunities for young talent on the position player side of things (more on that in a bit), but I still do not see how they can say they've done that with the rotation. Sure, the bullpen will present opportunities, but the Cardinals need to let young guys start.

They lost my trust last year that they'd make hard choices in order to give young starters a shot. Yes, they went with Pallante over Matz in the rotation, but that was after an injury and Pallante shoving for an entire summer. When Michael McGreevy blew people's socks off in a spot start on July 31st, it took until September 18th for the Cardinals to get him another opportunity in St. Louis. 49 days between opportunities. I'm not even saying he should have started again right away, but seriously, the Cardinals seemed dead in the water in late August and especially in early September. There is no reason why McGreevy could not have taken Mikolas, Gibson, or Lynn's spot in the rotation.

Maybe the Cardinals prove me wrong, but I have a strange feeling they'll continue to ride with Mikolas throughout the year if he's healthy and not horrible on the mound. Matz I know they aren't afraid to pull the plug on, but like I stated earlier, there are 7-10 young arms that may be worthy of some starts this year. If they go into the season with Fedde, Matz, and Mikolas in the rotation, it's hard to believe there'll be enough opportunity to go around.

Or maybe a better way to say that is banking on injury to create that is not a true runway. Don't block these young arms!

#4 - Shop Ryan Helsley

Here's where I may zag from some of you. I say the Cardinals should shop Ryan Helsley right now, but they do not have to trade him at this time. I'll explain why.

If a contender makes an aggressive offer for Ryan Helsley right now, you take it. No questions asked. He's not a part of the long-term plans here in St. Louis, and frankly, I think Helsley will want to see what else is out there for him. If you can get great value for him on the trade market, you do it.

But here's the tension, show me an offseason trade for a closer of Ryan Helsley's stature that matches that description in recent history. Unfortunately, it does not really exist. Those of you that I have gone back and forth with on Twitter/X about this or who've been screaming at the Cardinals to trade Helsley don't seem to acknowledge that. Just because he is a great player and valuable does not mean teams are offering what it should take to get him...at least right now.

You know when historically we have seen closers like Helsley get moved, and actually bring in a strong return? The trade deadline. And honestly, it's not hard to see why.

If I am a contender like the Orioles or whoever you want to say should trade for Helsley right now, why would I do that? Having a great closer is important, but it is far from the top need that most teams have going into the year. Every team needs competent high-leverage relievers during the regular season, but few, if any, "need" elite closers from April to July. You know when you want those guys to come through for you? October. And yeah, August and September would be great too.

If I am Baltimore or any other contender, I'd rather build a deep bullpen this offseason with a ton of options, and see who rises to the top. Maybe they hit on a reliever or two that they can trust at the back end of games. If not, and the Orioles (or said contender) feel like they can push for the World Series, then go out and find that elite closer at the deadline to put you over the top.

Sure, the Cardinals run the risk of Helsley getting injured. That is just a part of the game. But if Helsley is healthy at the deadline and performing even just close to the level we know he can, well, he's going to command a lot from a contender.

And even then, I still say shop, not necessarily essential they make the deal then. Yes, I'll have a much harder time believing the offers aren't good enough at the deadline, but if Helsley does get hurt or the offers aren't there, the club can always give him the qualifying offer and get a draft pick in return.

Yes, the value of that is likely worse than what a strong Helsley package is at the deadline (which is why they shouldn't turn those kinds of deals down). But it may be comparable to whatever offers they are getting this offseason that some insist they must do now. Getting a draft pick in return for Helsley is not the best-case scenario, but it is not a bad consolation either.

Remember, Bloom (and even Flores) have a strong history of hitting on draft picks after the first round. Bloom snagged the top prospect in all of baseball, Roman Anthony, with the 79th pick in the 2022 draft, and Kristian Campbell, another top ten prospect in baseball, with the 132nd pick in 2023. Flores drafted Masyn Winn (54th), Tink Hence (63rd), and Alec Burleson (70th) in the 2020 draft class, Jimmy Crooks with the 127th pick in the 2022 draft, and Quinn Mathews 122nd overall in 2023.

Giving the new regime ammunition in the draft is not a bad thing. Again, shop Helsley and try to get a haul for him, but if it is not there, hold him until the deadline. And if for some reason that great deal never materializes, a draft pick is not a bad result.

#5 - Play the young bats over defensive first players

No, I am not a "forsake defense for the better offensive option" every time kind of guy, but when there is such a stark difference between the production of two options at a position, that's when I think the Cardinals' preference toward defense needs to be tested.

Let's start with the obvious one - Ivan Herrera should be the primary catcher over Pedro Pages. Gone are the days of catchers starting 140+ games behind the plate, so no I am not advocating for that, but Herrera should get the lion's share of the workload. If the Cardinals flip that in Pages' favor, that would be a foolish choice.

Maybe that is strong language because I really do like Pages. I think he's a starter in this league. Yes, I believe he is probably one of the best 30 catchers in MLB. But Herrera has what it takes to be one of the best, so the Cardinals need to get him the chance to become that.

I know Herrera's defense, well, mainly his arm strength, leaves a lot to be desired. Hopefully, he's been able to improve that this offseason. But even if those strides were not enough, he should still be behind the plate often to try and grow as a defensive catcher.

Oh, and so that bat of his can play!

Herrera only played in 72 games last year for St. Louis. Some of that is due to injury, but some of that is the Cardinals not playing him as well. And yet, he had the best batting average (.301) and xwOBA (.366) and the second-best OBP (.372), SLG (.428) wOBA (.351), and wRC+ (127).

Wait, so you're telling me that an offense that struggled to score runs all year muted the opportunities for their second-best hitter, instead opting to run out a guy who was 17% below average as a hitter?

Yikes.

Oh, and it gets worse. If you compare Herrera to other catches in baseball last year, he led all catchers in average and xwOBA while ranking top three in wRC+ and OBP, top four in wOBA, and top 15 in SLG. Compared to all hitters in baseball with at least 250 plate appearances? Herrera was 13th in average, 21st in xwOBA, 22nd in OBP, and 50th in wRC+.

Translation: Play him as much as you can. And no, not just as a DH. Get him behind the plate early and often.

The other area the Cardinals need to consider a different face at is center field. If Victor Scott II impresses at the plate, it's his job. But if not, there's a different name who should be roaming center field, and that is Lars Nootbaar. If you're reading this and it's past 8:04 am on January 29th, then you can read my 2000+ word write-up on Nootbaar as a center fielder here. If not, just come back here in a bit to check it out. I promise it's worth the read, even if you're someone who thinks Lars Nootbaar is overrated.

Conclusion: Put both feet in the "reset" lane at the Major League level

I focused on all of the things the Cardinals have not done in this story. In terms of their reset, what they've been doing with forming their new front office regime as well as different hires and planned improvements they are making with player development are all worth celebrating. But that is only part of the reset.

If the Cardinals fail to "reset" at the Major League level in these ways, then they really are just taking half-measures with this reset, which is a real shame. If they want to make the most of 2025, the five things I have laid out would be an excellent way to do so.