Final St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day roster prediction

We are less than a week from Opening Day and the St. Louis Cardinals roster is really taking shape. Over the last few weeks, a flurry of roster moves has made the Cardinals' intentions with their roster clearer and clearer, and now there are very few questions remaining regarding what their roster will look like when they open the season against the Minnesota Twins.

The questions that do remain though all have ripple effects on other parts of the roster. Who the Cardinals decide to go with in center field impacts what their bench will look like. The Cardinals' decision on the state of a six-man rotation will impact who makes their bullpen group. And of course, the Cardinals' lineup will look different depending on who they prioritize playing time for.

Here is my final Opening Day roster prediction based on what we have heard over the last few days.

Catcher (2) - Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages

Shocker! Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages are set to be the Cardinals catchers as they open up the season. I will say though, I'm still in the habit of typing "Willson Contreras" and then having to quickly delete his name. Old habits die hard, I guess.

While the Cardinals have not shown their hand yet regarding the playing time of their catching duo, it does seem like they'll favor Herrera to start the year. Both catchers will get a significant amount of playing time as the year goes on, but the goal for the Cardinals should be to get Herrera behind the plate as much as possible.

This is especially true when you consider how many other bats then are already struggling to get into their lineup. They really don't need to add Herrera into that DH mix any further than he already is.

Just missed: Jimmy Crooks

Infield (6) - Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker

This hasn't changed from the last prediction, but it is worth noting a few more dynamics at play.

First, Masyn Winn has been battling a wrist injury as of late, and while it does not sound like he will miss any time in the regular season, this is worth keeping an eye on in case it does develop into a bigger issue for Winn and the club.

Second, Nolan Gorman has not been able to catch fire in camp like fans would have liked to have seen from a player in desperate need of a bounce back season, but that doesn't seem to be detering the Cardinals from giving him that "runway" in 2025. But am beginning to wonder if Gorman's "leash" will be shorter than what we expected originally.

Third, the Alec Burleson and Luken Baker dynamics on this roster create some difficult logjams. Baker is a DH and first base-only player, and the Cardinals now seem to be putting Burleson into that position as well as he has not seen any time in the outfield in camp. The duo may end up platooning at DH at the beginning of the year.

Willson Contreras is the tent-pole back for St. Louis this year and the club is hoping to see Nolan Arenado rebound as their cleanup hitter this year. This infield group has the potential to be a very strong unit for the club this year, but there's also potential for them to struggle this year.

Just missed: Thomas Saggese

Outfield (3) - Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Michael Siani

I know, I know, Victor Scott II has had a strong spring training thus far. His 1.149 OPS in camp should catch eyes for sure, and while he looks far more comfortable at the plate than he did last year, I do think the Cardinals will send him to Memphis to make sure he is playing every day to start the year.

Scott has really impressed me in camp. If they decide to go with him on the Opening Day roster, I won't have any complaints. But I also think it's fair to wonder if a bit more seasoning in Triple-A would be wise for Scott, especially considering the other players on the Cardinals' roster who they need to find at-bats for (i.e. Alec Burleson).

This is why I think Michael Siani will make the roster over Scott. Not because Siani deserves it, but because Siani can be the fourth outfielder on this team while Nootbaar starts more games in center field. Yes, Siani will play some, but I think Nootbaar will be the primary center fielder to start the year, which will allow the Cardinals to put their best bats in the lineup.

Walker is back from his brief injury scare and is set to play every day in right field. The Cardinals primary left fielder in my eyes will fall on the utility part of this list.

Just missed: Victor Scott II, Matt Koperniak

Utility (2) - Brendan Donovan, Jose Fermin

Brendan Donovan is extremely important for this Cardinals team in a number of ways. Not only has he emerged as a leader on the club, but he's consistently one of their best bats and allows them to be flexible with the rest of their roster.

While the club was hoping to play him at second base this year after a Nolan Arenado trade, but after it became clear that was not happening, the roster crunch got real and Donovan may need to man left field to begin the year to help the Cardinals navigate that.

Donovan did a great job filling in there during the 2024 season, and I see him doing that again to at least begin the 2025 season. Injuries will likely change where he is needed throughout the year, as well as the eventual presence of Victor Scott in center field once that happens.

So while Donovan may play left field more often at the beginning of the season, I still think it is fair to call him a utility player as he will likely see time at second base and third base as well.

Jose Fermin is now set to make the roster as their 26th man. He's had a strong camp offensively, and the Cardinals have played him all over the field as well. He brings good vibes, and with Siani as the backup center fielder, they don't need another guy with center field flexibility.

I do not expect Fermin to play much, but he will be a helpful piece at the end of the Cardinals' bench to at least begin the year.

Just missed: Jose Barrero, Michael Helman

Rotation (6) - Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Michael McGreevy

The Cardinals have been contemplating the idea of a six-man rotation, and while it still seems kind of out of character for the Cardinals to do this, I think they'll pull the trigger and begin the year with a six-man group.

Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas have always been locks for this rotation. Andre Pallante seemed to be one as well, but he has not been sharp in camp and it put into question a bit his place in the rotation. Steven Matz has posted a 2.29 ERA in 19.2 innings in camp, so he likely solidified his spot in the rotation.

But it's hard to see how they leave Michael McGreevy out of this group as well. He posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four appearances (three starts) for St. Louis during the 2024 regular season and has followed that up with a 1.54 ERA in 11.2 innings thus far in camp. He's already proven what he can at Triple-A, and it's time to give McGreevy a run in St. Louis.

Because of that, I think the Cardinals will run with McGreevy in the rotation to begin the year. Eventually, an injury will happen or a starter will clearly look overmatched from the group, but as of now, the Cardinals are going to have a hard time removing any of the six from their big-league rotation.

This would put a bit more stress on their bullpen. I could see the Cardinals riding Mikolas in his starts for as many innings as possible, even if he is getting rocked. If the rest of the rotation can also consistently give them six or more innings, that will help a ton.

If innings become an issue early in the season, then they will likely need to shrink the rotation to five and add another arm to their relief core.

Just missed: Quinn Mathews, Gordon Graceffo

Bullpen (7) - Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Ryan Fernandez, Phil Maton, Matthew Liberatore, John King, Kyle Leahy

Having a seven man bullpen group is not ideal, but I think the Cardinals have the ingredients to make it work.

Ryan Helsley will lock down save situations once again in 2025 and I doubt the club will use him in other spots. It helped him stay healthy and productive in 2024 and I know they will want that again this year.

JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez should be their high-leverage, late-inning arms, getting the ball to Helsley late in games and holding the fort down before he comes out of the bullpen.

If the Cardinals do roll with a six-man group, they will need to have multiple arms in the bullpen who can go more than one inning at a time. Matthew Liberatore, Kyle Leahy, John King, and Phil Maton all fit in that mold. The club has already expressed how they think they can keep Liberatore stretched out in the bullpen, and this would be one way to do that. I could also see him being the sixth man in their rotation.

This scenario would likely mean that the Memphis shuttle will be in high demand in 2025. The Cardinals will likely need to send down arms and call up fresh replacements frequently in order to cover innings until they move back to a five-man group, and even then, I imagine we'll see a lot of relievers this year.

The Cardinals bullpen group could end up being their strength again this year. Taking a member out of that group puts more pressure on them, but I think they can handle it.

Just missed: Chris Roycroft, Riley O'Brien, Nick Anderson

Lineups

vs RHP

1. CF Lars Nootbaar
2. 1B Willson Contreras
3. LF Brendan Donovan
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. DH Alec Burleson
6. C Ivan Herrera
7. 2B Nolan Gorman
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. SS Masyn Winn

The Cardinals seem to favor Lars Nootbaar as their lead-off option if it is not Masyn Winn. While Winn could still lead off for the, I truly believe what is best for this team is having Winn bat lower in the order and allowing either Nootbaar or Donovan to lead off for them.

I personally would have Donovan lead off and Nootbaar bat third, but the Cardinals have actually run lineups in spring that has Nootbaar leading off and Donovan batting third. Having Contreras in the second spot in the order makes a ton of sense in my eyes, as it gives him more at-bats and allows them to do the right-handed and left-handed alternating throughout the lineup.

Putting Nootbaar in center field does allow them to get Burleson into the lineup, and it lengthens their lineup in a major way.

vs LHP

1. CF Lars Nootbaar
2. C Willson Contreras
3. 3B Nolan Areando
4. DH Luken Baker
5. C Ivan Herrera
6. LF Brendan Donovan
7. RF Jordan Walker
8. 2B Nolan Gorman
9. SS Masyn Winn

Nootbaar actually has strong numbers against left-handed pitching, so it makes sense to have him lead off in these situations. It also allows the club to have a high-OBP and OPS guy in Contreras bat second, Arenado and his high-AVG profile bat third, and a big bat like Baker bat clean up for them.

The Cardinals struggled big time against left-handed pitching in 2024, so they need to do whatever it takes to put their best foot forward against southpaws in 2025.

I could see the Cardinals looking to work Pages into these lineups, especially with Herrera having reverse splits at the plate.