Cardinals Opening Day roster prediction after new signing and latest roster moves

We are under two weeks away from Opening Day and the St. Louis Cardinals appear to have given us quite a bit of roster clarity over the last few days.

Thursday's signing of Phil Maton will add an arm to their bullpen mix and shake up that group in a real way. While that was the only addition the Cardinals made this week, comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and manager Oliver Marmol seem to be shedding some light on how other areas of the roster may shape up.

Believe it or not, there are some substantial changes from my Opening Day roster prediction last week, and today I want to share what seems to be the direction the Cardinals are now heading in with that 26-man group.

The roster categories I will be predicting are the catcher, infield, outfield, utility, rotation, bullpen, and lineups vs. RHP and LHP

Catcher (2) - Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages

Just missed: Jimmy Crooks and Gavin Collins

One area that has not changed is the catcher position, where Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages are both locked in for the club to start the year and should be the duo all year long barring injuries.

I've been pretty vocal about wanting the Cardinals to start Herrera over Pages, and based on reports out of camp, it seems like they are going to at least begin the year by favoring Herrera and his bat. Now, will it remain that way? We'll see. But it is important to remember that in this new era of baseball, even the primary catcher doesn't catch as many games as they used to.

I'm very much hoping for Herrera to start 110+ games behind the plate, but even that number is fairly high in today's game. Only eight catchers in baseball caught 110+ games in 2024, but as long as Herrera is durable enough to do so, he should join them on that list.

If Jimmy Crooks tears up Triple-A this year, he could push for a spot on the roster. But considering how much the Cardinals like Herrera and Pages, they won't have to rush Crooks unless he forces the issue.

Infield (6) - Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker

The only other group that remains unchanged on this updated Opening Day roster prediction is the group of infielders I expect the Cardinals to bring to camp. Remember, I did add a "utility player" category, so Brendan Donovan and another infield option will appear later on this list.

Ever since Nolan Arenado's fate was sealed as a member of the Cardinals to open up the season, Thomas Saggese has been a clear candidate to end up back in Triple-A when the season begins. This has been reinforced to me by their unwillingness thus far to play him at shortstop, a position Saggese would be in line to cover if he were to make the roster. Instead, Saggese will get everyday at-bats in Memphis until a role opens up in St. Louis.

Nolan Gorman has really struggled so far in spring training, and as Opening Day draws near, that becomes more concerning. He is using a reworked swing, so it is not surprising to see him struggling with timing thus far, but fans are not going to have a ton of patience for him striking out a ton again in 2025. The Cardinals are going to start him a lot to begin 2025, but if things don't turn around for him, they may change their tune on the idea of giving him 600+ at-bats.

Alec Burleson is the player getting squeezed from the lineup right now due to Nolan Arenado's presence, but he has done little in camp so far to push the conversation on Gorman. Slashing .200/.286/.333 so far, Burleson will have to snatch a lineup job from Gorman if he is going to have consistent playing time soon, barring injuries.

Luken Baker has mashed the ball all camp, slugging three home runs with a 1.064 OPS in his 25 at-bats. Baker will fill a key role on the Cardinals' bench as a right-handed bat late in games when they have a matchup vs. left-handed pitching. There may even be a chance that he gets more starts than Burleson does if he keeps things up.

Having Willson Contreras as a first baseman should be a boost to this lineup. He has been one of the best bats in baseball since coming over the the Cardinals, so getting his bat in the lineup every day is important. The Cardinals will be hoping for a rebound season from Nolan Arenado and Masyn Winn avoiding the sophmore slump.

Just missed: Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin

Outfield (3) - Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker

Just missed: Matt Koperniak and Michael Siani

For quite some time now, I've been advocating for the Cardinals to start Lars Nootbaar in center field over Michael Siani and Victor Scott II, but knowing that Siani would likely be the starter. As things stand today, I'm still advocating for Nootbaar, but I believe Scott will get the nod over Siani two weeks from now.

It's due to a combination of factors. Scott is the guy long-term they are hoping can run with that position, and he's having a strong camp this year. Siani may have impressed the Cardinals with his glove in 2024, but he's recorded just one hit in 30 at-bats for St. Louis so far in camp. I don't take much stock in spring training stats, but when the numbers are that bad and you already know the player isn't a good hitter, it tells a story. You can't convince me Siani, who's batting .033 in camp, should start for the Cardinals, or even be on the roster.

Lars Nootbaar will play some center field in this scenario but will play most of his games in left field. Jordan Walker, as long as he is healthy, should be the primary right fielder as well. I feel bad for Matt Koperniak, who looks deserving of a roster spot, but I just do not see how the Cardinals can fit him in their order each day. Koperniak is another left-handed bat who profiles as a corner outfielder and can kind of play center field, and I just don't see how he makes the roster unless Walker starts on the IL or the Cardinals send down both Siani and Scott.

Watching the status of Walker will be important over the coming days. The Cardinals seemed to believe he'd be back quickly when they initially got his results, but the injury is now lingering on a bit longer than I would have hoped for. As the days drag on, the Cardinals will also have to weigh whether or not Walker needs some game time to ramp back up, so this mix could change soon if he doesn't get on the field soon.

Utility (2) - Brendan Donovan, Jose Barrero

Just missed: Michael Helman

Another change to the list!

Jose Barrero was signed to a minor league contract prior to spring training and once was a top prospect with the Cincinnati Reds. A very toolsy player, the Cardinals have liked what they've seen from Barrero so far in camp, and I believe he's done enough to pass both Michael Helman and Jose Fermin on the depth chart.

If the Cardinals keep both Burleson and Baker on their Opening Day roster, they'll need a utility player who can fill in at shortstop, center field, and other positions along the way. Both Barrero and Helman provide that, but Barrero has shown far more to this point when compared to Helman.

I don't envision this second utility player spot having a huge role on the roster, but being able to spell Masyn Winn and sometimes center field will be helpful. Also, Barrero's versatility, alongside Brendan Donovan's would allow the Cardinals to be creative with how they deploy Luken Baker or Alec Burleson off of the bench in big spots. They may pinch hit for a player, but Barrero can come in and fill in defensively in the later innings.

Donovan looks primed to bounce all over the field again this year. He'll likely see significant time at second base and left field, but could be called upon at third base, right field, and perhaps shortstop or first base in a pinch. It's a very useful tool for this Cardinals club, especially as they look to get creative in providing opportunities for their young bats.

There's a chance Helman makes the roster over Barrero though, as having Barrero on the roster means the Cardinals would have to make a move with their 40-man roster. My guess is they'd DFA Jose Fermin, as having Helman stick around with that shortstop/center field versatility makes a lot of sense.

Rotation (5) - Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz

Just missed: Michael McGreevy and Gordon Graceffo

Barring an injury or trade late in camp, the Cardinals' five-man rotation appears to be set in stone and will look like the group that we've anticipated they'd go with all offseason long.

Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas have been locks for the rotation for months, and while there was some doubt about Andre Pallante recently, he looks secure in his spot as well. The real question seemed to revolve around whether or not the Cardinals would be willing to send Steven Matz to the bullpen, but it does not appear like they will do so.

Instead, despite a strong camp from Matthew Liberatore, he will end up being the Cardinals' third left-handed option out of the bullpen, but Mozeliak insists that it does not mean Liberatore won't start this year. We've seen this song and dance before, and it is not fair to Liberatore. He has not been good in spots where he is yanked between two roles, and now the Cardinals are set to do so again this year. The idea of Liberatore starting in the rotation with Matz in the bullpen was really growing on me prior to this decision.

Michael McGreevy, who has also had himself a great camp thus far, will be starting the year in Triple-A and will likely be the first man up should an injury occur. McGreevy was really good in his small sample size for St. Louis last year and looks like a rotation option for the future. I'm hoping they'll find a way to get him in the MLB rotation asap.

Quinn Mathews will also begin the year in Triple-A, and as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, it won't be long before he's in St. Louis, as long as he is pitching well. Mathews represents real upside for this Cardinal rotation, and if he's throwing well in Memphis to start the year, the club is going to have to make a decision on one of their veterans barring an injury.

Graceffo will be stretched out in Memphis alongside Sem Robberse and likely Tekoah Roby, so the Cardinals will have plenty of options they can turn to whenever they so need. The Cardinals should have a stable rotation again as they did in 2024, but I am hoping it's turned over to more young arms soon so they can develop.

Bullpen (8) - Ryan Helsley, Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, Phil Maton, John King, Matthew Liberatore, Nick Anderson, Kyle Leahy

Just missed: Riley O'Brien and Chris Roycroft

Now that Maton is a Cardinal and guys like Graceffo and Liberatore have had their roles defined, the bullpen outlook has gotten a lot clearer for St. Louis.

Ryan Helsley, Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, and John King are locks for the bullpen on Opening Day alongside Liberatore and Maton. It's a pretty strong group all things considered, and while it is missing someone who could truly step into that Andrew Kittredge role, it is a group that I believe can approximate a lot of the bullpen's success from 2024.

The other two bullpen spots are where things get interesting. Personally, I think the Cardinals want to at least hold onto Nick Anderson while longer, so I could see them adding him to their 40-man roster when they likely add Zack Thompson to the 60-day IL before the regular season. Anderson has a clause in his contract that he could jump to another club if they offer him an MLB deal and the Cardinals do not, so I believe they'll add him to their roster to at least start the year.

That leaves the eighth and final spot for one of the Cardinals' young relief prospects to grab ahold of. The prime candidates for that role appear to be Chris Roycroft, Riley O'Brien, Roddery Munoz, and Kyle Leahy.

O'Brien has not pitched in a spring training game since February 26th, and while there has been no injury reported at this moment, it's been an odd absence, to say the least. The Cardinals love O'Brien's stuff and believe he can be a leverage arm at some point, but I would guess he starts at Triple-A to begin the year.

Roycroft has been really good in his outings so far in camp, not allowing a single run in six innings of work while striking out five batters. Munoz is someone the club is intrigued by, but I do not think he'll get the nod until later in the regular season.

Leahy seems like the prime option to take the final spot of the bullpen and run with it. When looking at your eighth bullpen spot, you want someone who can be flexible in their role. Leahy has performed well in big spots when they've been given to him, but he can also cover multiple innings if the Cardinals need length from him one game.

Leahy could work his way into a larger role with the club later in the season, but for now, he fits the mold of that final bullpen spot and I believe he'll round out that group.

Projected lineups

vs. RHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. LF Lars Nootbaar
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. 2B Brendan Donovan
6. C Ivan Herrera
7. DH Nolan Gorman
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. CF Victor Scott II

There has been a lot of debate lately about whether or not Masyn Winn should be the Cardinals' lead-off hitter. If you asked me what their best lineup is, I'd say it is one with Donovan leading off and either Nootbaar or Contreras batting second and the other batting third, but I think the Cardinals will let Winn lead off to begin the year.

Long-term, the Cardinals want Winn to rise as a true lead-off hitter and someone who they can confidently hit at the top of their order. Right now, he's not that player, or at least I should say he's not as good as Donovan or Nootbaar are in that role. But still, I do think this is the direction the Cardinals will go in.

When St. Louis has put out their strongest lineups in camp, Donovan tends to be hitting around the fifth spot, and Herrera makes a lot of sense to follow him and help break up the righty/lefty/righty dynamic in the lineup. Walker and Gorman are toward the bottom of the order for now, but I am sure the club wants to see them bounce back and rise up that batting order this year.

With Scott in center field here, Burleson gets squeezed from the lineup.

vs. LHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. CF Lars Nootbaar
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Ivan Herrera
6. DH Luken Baker
7. LF Brendan Donovan
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. 2B Nolan Gorman

The Cardinals really struggled against left-handed pitching last year, so I really do see them starting Luken Baker in these spots to maximize their lineup.

There are question marks regarding how good Baker can be against righties at the big league level, but no one really questions his ability to mash left-handed pitching. When Baker is on the bench, he is a prime candidate to come in late in games against a southpaw, but I also think he is on track to start against lefties as well.

To make that happen, I have Nootbaar playing center field these days, which helps lengthen the Cardinals lineup. They could move Donovan to second base and have Gorman sit against southpaws, but my guess is that early in the year, they'll want to see both his offense against lefties and defense at second base when they can.