Cardinals Opening Day roster projection with 3 weeks remaining in spring training

The St. Louis Cardinals open up the regular season by hosting the Minnesota Twins at Busch Stadium in just 23 days, and as camp continues to press on, the Cardinals are going to need to make some key decisions regarding their Opening Day roster in the near future.

The club has begun demoting some prospects like Quinn Mathews and Chase Davis recently to trim down the big league camp size, meaning more and more opportunities are going to guys who may have a chance to crack the roster to start the season. There is still plenty of time for players to shine in front of the coaching staff or play themselves out of a roster spot, and injuries have now started to become a storyline as well.

I made my "way-too-early" Opening Day roster prediction prior to spring training beginning, and today I wanted to give an updated projection as things currently stand.

The roster categories I will be predicting are the catcher, infield, outfield, utility, rotation, bullpen, and lineups vs. RHP and LHP

Catcher (2) - Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages

Just missed: Jimmy Crooks and Gavin Collins

No surprises here, and barring an injury to Ivan Herrera or Pedro Pages, there is no reason to expect any other duo handling catching duties for the Cardinals come Opening Day.

The only real question at this point is who will be the "primary" catcher, or the club will end up leaning toward a 50/50 split? Herrera offers far more upside as a player due to his ability to do damage at the plate, but the Cardinals clearly favor Pages' ability behind the plate over Herrera's.

Gone are the days where a catcher is going to be behind the plate 140+ times like Yadier Molina, but the Cardinals would be wise to favor the split toward Herrera as much as possible, especially early in the season with a likely veteran-led pitching staff. If the Cardinals had a bunch of young arms on the mound, it may be worth considering who is calling those games, but for now, there is no reason for Herrera not to be the guy most days.

Pages is a quality back up though, and I do not anticipate him or Herrera losing their jobs this season barring an injury, even with Jimmy Crooks getting closer to an MLB debut.

Infield (6) - Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, and Luken Baker

Just missed: Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin

The Cardinals position player group is in a really funky spot at the moment. Now that we know Nolan Arenado will be with the team to begin the year, barring some surprise trade, it has created a bit of a roster crunch.

Thomas Saggese is a clear example of this to me. I highly doubt the Cardinals carry him on their Opening Day roster if the rest of their infield remains healthy, as Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan will likely play almost every day. There just would not be much opportunity to go around, and so I believe they'd start him to Triple-A until a path clears.

If the Cardinals were to change their tune a bit around Gorman, perhaps that could change, but I believe them when they say they want Gorman to have plenty of opportunities this year.

The Cardinals have been playing Burleson at first base and designated hitter only during camp, and all indications seem to be that they do not plan to use him in the outfield this year (if they can avoid that). That also puts Burleson in a difficult spot. If the Cardinals do not play Nootbaar in center field, then Burleson is left without an everyday role.

Luken Baker snuck onto the roster in this version for me as a right-handed option off of the bench and someone who could get occasional starts when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. With the DH spot and first base being mostly covered, Baker will have to make the most of sporadic opportunities, whether they are off the bench or the rare start.

If you're freaking out about where Brendan Donovan is, please remember the utility spot is coming up! I am positive the Cardinals will be using him in a number of spots again this year.

Outfield (3) - Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker*, and Michael Siani

Just missed: Victor Scott II and Matt Koperniak

I really wanted to find a way to get Matt Koperniak on this roster, but unless Jordan Walker's injury is significant, I struggle to see the path for him as things are currently constructed.

Right now, I have the Cardinals carrying five left-handed bats in Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, Donovan, Burleson, and Gorman. The only way to fit Koperniak on this roster would be by demoting Michael Siani (which I do not see the Cardinals doing), forgoing Baker's spot on the roster, or by not carrying a backup shortstop that they feel comfortable with defensively (you'll see who in a moment).

Perhaps the way they could solve this is by having Saggese on the roster in the Baker role and getting occasional starts, but again, I just don't think they want to limit Saggese to that role at this point. I also struggle to see where they would be getting Koperniak at-bats early in the season considering they already might not have an everyday spot for Burleson.

I do envision Koperniak getting his opportunity in the near future, I just don't think that will be Opening Day, at least not as of today. If he continues to swing a hot bat in camp and the Cardinals feel like they have to have him on the roster, they'll just have to make some difficult choices.

Another potentially difficult choice is the fate of Victor Scott II, who has also been performing in camp but I believe they will look to start the year in Triple-A as well for a number of reasons. Like Saggese, they should be aiming to get Scott everyday opportunities, and I'm not convinced they believe he is ready for that in St. Louis quite yet.

This does get shaken up though if Walker misses significant time due to his knee injury from Monday. In that scenario, I do see Koperniak making the roster. For now though, I expect their outfield group to look pretty "chalk".

Utility (2) - Brendan Donovan and Michael Helman

Just missed: Jose Barrero

Maybe John Mozeliak misspoke the other day when he wondered if Donovan could become an All-Star outfielder this year, but assuming he didn't, he seems to think we'll see Donovan in the outfield often again this year, and I tend to agree.

If the Cardinals want to play their young bats often, Donovan needs to play left field frequently. I am sure he will bounce around and see time at second base and third base as well, but left field seems to be the best fit for this roster as things currently stand.

Donovan does not seem fazed by that uncertainty though. When I talked to him on the Dealin' the Cards podcast recently, he said he enjoyed getting to help his team all over the field, and it is part of what has made him such a great player so far in his young career.

If you don't recognize the name Michael Helman, he was acquired by the Cardinals from the Twins prior to spring training for cash considerations, and he provides the club flexibility as an option for both center field and shortstop. I actually think he fits seamlessly into what the Cardinals may want from their 26th roster spot, and here is why.

Masyn Winn is going to play almost every day, so they only see someone to cover shortstop in a handful of games. Michael Siani and Lars Nootbaar can handle center field most days. So Helman's spot on the roster won't be used often, but he provides depth at important positions. This also allows the Cardinals to play their best 12 position players as much as possible without having to worry about working in that 13th man.

Rotation (5) - Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz

Just missed: Michael McGreevy

If I had it my way, Michael McGreevy would be in the Cardinals rotation on Opening Day, and he is certainly pitching like someone who deserves that spot so far in camp. If he continues this run of form, it will be very difficult for St. Louis to leave him out of their five-man group.

But alas, my guess is they send him to Memphis knowing full well he is their first call when an injury happens to the rotation. So far, all five of the Cardinals' projected starts are healthy, so they seem to be the odds-on favorites to start the year in the rotation for the club.

Sonny Gray will make his first appearance in a game today for the Cardinals, and he is primed to bounce back and provide more "front-line starter" type numbers in 2025. Andre Pallante and Erick Fedde represent quality middle-of-the-rotation options, and Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz will hold down the fort in the back of the rotation.

Outside of McGreevy, both Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby have caught eyes in camp, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both of them push for the rotation in the near future as well. Mathews seems slated to do so as soon as possible, but if the Cardinals have Roby start games in the minors to begin the year, his talent, when healthy, is up there with Mathews and Tink Hence.

There have been rumors that the Cardinals could consider trading Fedde before Opening Day, but they'll need to be blown away with an offer to do so. As more pitching injuries happen around the majors, that may become more of a reality and open up a spot for someone like McGreevy.

Bullpen (8) - Ryan Helsley, Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, John King, Kyle Leahy, Gordon Graceffo, and Chris Roycroft

Just missed: Riley O'Brien and Roddery Munoz

There are so many names that could make up the Cardinals' bullpen this year, and I fully envision this group remaining very fluid as the year goes on.

Ryan Helsley returns to lockdown games this year after many thought he would be dealt in the offseason. Helsley has added a cutter to his arsenal in camp, and that could be a huge weapon for him against left-handed hitters. While it's hard to expect Helsley to replicate how good he was last year, he does give the Cardinals supreme confidence at the end of games.

Ryan Fernandez and JoJo Romero both had much better starts to their 2024 campaigns than finishes, but the duo has looked sharp so far in their small sample sizes. I expect both Fernandez and Romero to help fill the void that was left by Andrew Kittredge leaving this offseason, but another young arm has shown flashy stuff so far in camp and could add himself to that back-end group.

Matthew Liberatore has been lights out in his outings thus far, and as he showed in short stints out of the bullpen last year, he is highly effective in short outings for St. Louis. He had been throwing two and three-inning outings thus far in camp as he competes for a starting gig, but my guess is the Cardinals have him shine in the bullpen again for them this year.

With how many starting arms the Cardinals have in their pocket right now, I just don't see Liberatore getting a chance in the rotation. He does provide the Cardinals with a very useful and dynamic arm in their bullpen though, as he's able to come in and shut down an inning, neutralize lefties, or even cover two or three innings out of the bullpen to bridge the gap from the starter to Ryan Helsley.

As I said earlier, I expect this group to change up a lot throughout the year, but my guess right now is that John King is the third lefty in the bullpen and Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy, and Chris Roycroft snag the final three spots. Leahy is another guy who has received looks as a starter in camp, so having Liberatore, Leahy, and Graceffo in the bullpen means the Cardinals can deploy multiple different guys who can cover two or more innings in an outing.

Projected lineups

vs. RHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. LF Brendan Donovan
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. CF Lars Nootbaar
6. C Ivan Herrera
7. DH Alec Burleson
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. 2B Nolan Gorman

Yup, I'm sticking with the idea that Lars Nootbaar ends up in center field for the Cardinals to start the year. With this roster construction, Nootbaar will need to still play a lot of left or right field to cover for when Donovan is needed at another position or Walker needs an off day, but when the lineup is at full force, I think they'll have Nootbaar in center.

Thera has already been tidbits from both Mozeliak and Oliver Marmol this spring that indicate they have to decide whether or not to prioritize the future and development with their lineups or do what is best for "today". While I'd argue the best thing for the team right now and going forward is to have Nootbaar in center (until Victor Scott II is ready), I think Marmol would see Siani as the better option today.

This lineup is very similar to the one they rolled out in their first spring training game of the season. The major difference is that with Siani on the bench, Burleson is able to slot in at DH and bump down both Gorman and Walker in the lineup.

I really like the length that this lineup has when Nootbaar is in center field. Obviously Gorman and Walker really need to prove themselves this year, but some pressure is removed from them when they are truly the eighth and ninth hitters in this lineup.

vs. LHP

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. CF Lars Nootbaar
3. 1B Willson Contreras
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Ivan Herrera
6. LF Brendan Donovan
7. DH Luken Baker
8. 2B Nolan Gorman
9. RF Jordan Walker

One of the perks of having Baker on the roster is the ability to play him against left-handed pitching, especially with how bad the Cardinals were against lefties last year. This also may be a day where the club sneaks Pedro Pages into lineups and has Herrera DH, but that rotation will have more to do with keeping the duo fresh rather than platooning.

Burleson was awful against left-handed pitching last year, so I do not think he'll be in the lineup against southpaws until he can prove otherwise. Nootbaar slides up in the order in this scenario since he's been great against lefties in his career and Donovan has struggled a fair bit.

Winn is still the lead off man in both lineups, but he'll need to prove he belongs up there as the season goes on. Donovan and Nootbaar are both excellent lead off options, so if Winn struggles at the plate, I would guess he bumps down the bottom of the order and Donovan or Nootbaar lead off.