Cardinals Opening Day roster prediction with just 2 weeks remaining of camp

The St. Louis Cardinals have begun making substantial cuts to their big league camp and now stand just 17 decisions away from finalizing their 26-man roster for Opening Day.

Going into camp, there were many different directions the club could go with a number of key positions on the roster. In recent days, the Cardinals brought clarity to how they will handle the catcher position to start the year, and they began to narrow down the list of names in consideration for their bullpen and final position player spots.

With just two weeks remaining of spring training, I wanted to give my third Opening Day roster prediction, as a lot has changed about the outlook of the Cardinals roster since the last time we took a look at it.

Catchers (3): Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, and Yohel Pozo

When the Cardinals optioned catchers Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal to minor league camp, it confirmed their intentions to roll with the trio of Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, and Yohel Pozo to at least begin the year.

Crooks should get his opportunity at some point, but with Herrera and Pages likely to take the majority of the reps to begin the year, having him on the roster would not have been helpful for his development. Pozo is the ideal third catcher in this scenario, as the Cardinals won't feel pressure to play him more than they have to, although he has been swinging a hot bat in camp.

The million-dollar question is how long of a runway the Cardinals are going to give Herrera to catch. He's already dealt with knee inflammation in camp, and while he's expected back in the lineup today, the Cardinals need his bat in the lineup every day this year. While catching would be an added bonus to his profile, his bat is what really matters to them. With so much catching talent in the organization, when does the risk of injury begin to shift the conversation? We still don't know yet how his development behind the plate is faring either, which the Cardinals had real questions about before.

While I know some fans are upset by Pages being on the roster over Crooks, considering how young of a pitching staff the Cardinals will have this year, having a stable presence behind the plate like Pages, at least to begin the year, makes a lot of sense. This is especially true with the Cardinals experimenting with Herrera behind the plate already.

Just missed: Jimmy Crooks

Infield (6): Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Ramon Urias, and Jose Fermin

The Cardinals' starting infield is set in stone, with JJ Wetherholt and Masyn Winn set to hold down the middle of the diamond while Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman man the corners. The real question revolves around who else will get opportunities.

The Cardinals signed Ramon Urias to be one of those options earlier in camp, as the 31-year-old former Gold Glover will bring the Cardinals a stable veteran presence off the bench with plus defense and a history of above-average offense, although 2025 was the worst season of his career at the plate. I expect the Cardinals' infield to play most days, with Urias being the guy who fills in as needed.

That's partially why we've seen Jose Fermin and Thomas Saggese get so many opportunities in the outfield this year, with both making starts in left field and center field in camp. While I could totally see both making the roster, that will heavily depend on how they want to handle which outfielders make the roster (more on that later).

In this scenario, Thomas Saggese doesn't make the cut, not because he isn't talented enough, but because the playing time will be limited, and I believe the Cardinals would rather have him play every day in Memphis to begin the year. This is a very similar situation to Crooks, and both players could be in St. Louis relatively early into the season.

Fermin is out of minor league options, and I don't think the Cardinals want to let him go, so he makes the roster here as a utility man who can play most infield positions and be a right-handed bat for the outfield as needed. I know Fermin has some strong supporters within the organization, and he did post some great numbers at both Triple-A (147 wRC+) and at the Major League level (129 wRC+) in limited playing time

I'll be very curious to see how long the Cardinals are willing to let Gorman go for if they see him struggling at the plate. They've been clear that they want to see what he can do this year, but I don't imagine that patience will last more than half the year.

Just missed: Thomas Saggese

Outfield (4): Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Nathan Church, and Nelson Velsaquez

With Lars Nootbaar unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, the Cardinals have been searching for who will fill the void in left field to begin the year. One name that has gained a lot of fanfare is Joshua Baez.

The Cardinals optioned him to minor league camp this week, but not before he slugged three home runs in three consecutive games, catching the attention of both the Cardinals organization and fans alike. Chaim Bloom has been consistent in his messaging all offseason that Triple-A is a necessary proving ground for Baez, who has not yet appeared at the level, but his breakout 2025 campaign and strong camp seem to have him knocking on the door of a big league debut.

I did recently predict that Baez would be starting in the Cardinals' outfield by August on the Dealin' the Cards podcast, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's up in St. Louis sooner than that. The Cardinals will be patient with him, but the talent is real.

Nelson Velasquez has had a strong camp of his own thus far, but is facing an uphill battle as a non-roster invitee to camp. The Cardinals already need to open up a 40-man roster spot for JJ Wetherholt, so they would have to find another one as well to get Velasquez on the roster. While I haven't had him making the roster before, I did decide to have him make the cut today, as the power he brings to the outfield from the right side of the plate just isn't present elsewhere on the roster. If Velsaquez did make the roster, the Cardinals would face a tough decision between Saggese and Nathan Church.

Church wins out for me in this case, because I do believe the Cardinals really like him, and we've already heard rumblings that they see a bit of "Brendan Donovan-lite" in him. Not necessarily that they are the same kind of player or talent, but that he's the kind of guy who just keeps outproducing what prospect lists and general vibes around him say he can be. I think Nathan Church will have a strong claim to the starting outfield while Nootbaar is out, and he could even challenge Victor Scott II for the center field role at some point.

Jordan Walker, like Gomran, will be in the starting lineup on Opening Day, but how long the Cardinals give him to figure things out will be a story to watch. So far in camp, Walker continues to struggle with strikeouts and smacking the baseball right into the ground. He does have one option remaining, so the Cardinals could send him down to Memphis again this year for more work if needed.

Just missed: Lars Nootbaar (IL) and Joshua Baez

Rotation (5+1 swingman): Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, and Richard Fitts

The Cardinals have made it very clear that six pitchers are in contention for the starting rotation right now, with three of those spots already being nailed down by Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, and Michael McGreevy. Two of Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, and Richard Fitts will make the rotation as well, and the other will likely operate as a sixth starter or swingman type role.

For my first two roster predictions, I had Pallante sliding into that swingman role, as he has experience doing that at the big league level already, presents the lowest upside of the group of my opinion, and with him already being in arbitration, he's the least likely to be a part of their core moving forward. But, given the talk out of camp so far, while I would have Fitts in the rotation, I am leaning toward the Cardinals putting him in that swingman role to begin the season.

Fitts has impressed many in camp so far with his uptick in velocity and nice mix of swing-and-miss as well as the ability to induce groundballs. Fitts came over from the Boston Red Sox in the Sonny Gray trade, and he's someone who could carve out a role with the Cardinals for the next few years. His stuff has the ability to play nice in the bullpen, but I do think the Cardinals would be wise to let him start as often as possible this year.

Leahy is getting the 2025 Matthew Liberatore treatment this camp, transitioning from a bullpen role into a starter's workload. It remains to be seen if he performs well in that role, but the Cardinals do seem excited to see what he can do. Leahy, like Pallante and Fitts, could slot into a swingman role if needed or go back to being a high-leverage arm like he was in 2025, but I tend to think they'll give him runway to begin the year in the rotation after all of the offseason chatter about him.

One name who has yet to appear in a spring training game but you need to keep your eye on is right-hander Hunter Dobbins, who also came over from Boston this offseason, but in the Willson Contreras deal. Dobbins posted a 4.13 ERA and 3.87 FIP in 13 games (11 starts) for the Red Sox in 2025, but suffered an ACL tear that he has almost been cleared from. He has been throwing all camp, and I expect him to begin the year in Memphis while being likely the next man up if an injury or blowup in performance happens.

And let's not forget about Quinn Mathews, who has made quite the impression at camp with gains in his velocity and displaying a ton of strikeouts in his game action. Mathews was Baseball America's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2024 after an incredible first professional season with St. Louis, but he ran into a rough patch in Memphis last year that kept him from making his MLB debut. I expect the Cardinals to remain patient with him due to the other seven options I already named, but Mathews should get a long look in St. Louis at some point this year.

Just missed: Hunter Dobbins and Quinn Mathews

Bullpen (7): Riley O'Brien, Matt Svanson, JoJo Romero, Ryan Stanek, Justin Bruihl, George Soriano, and Matt Pushard

The Cardinals could go a number of directions with their bullpen to start the 2026 season, but we all know this group will change frequently as the year goes on.

While there are some fun names that I don't have making my bullpen (more on them later), I do think that has a lot to do with the Cardinals not wanting to cut bait with guys before they really have to. Of the seven players I have making the Cardinals' Opening Day bullpen, only one (Matt Svanson) has options remaining. That means the Cardinals would have to place the others through waivers in order to option them to Memphis, or, in the case of Matt Pushard, offer him back to the Miami Marlins as a Rule 5 selection.

Pushard seems the least likely of my mix to make the roster. He's only appeared in four games so far, and he hasn't done much to sway people in his direction. He does have intriguing stuff though, so I do think the Cardinals are hoping he finishes camp strong and runs with a spot.

Svanson, Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, and Ryan Stanek are the clear high-leverage arms right now, with Stanek really catching eyes so far in camp. I host a new podcast with former Cardinals' closer Trevor Rosenthal called "Call to the 'Pen", and Rosenthal mentioned on our last episode that he could tell Stanek is sharp right now from just one outing.

George Soriano, who the Cardinals acquired in a trade for Andre Granillo earlier in camp, has looked sharp as well and is clearly someone the front office is excited to see in camp. Justin Bruihl has not looked good in camp so far, but he'll have a case to be their second lefty out of the bullpen. Packy Naughton is a really strong candidate to replace him, though.

Luis Gastelum, who is currently pitching for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, has a nasty change-up that will propel him to the Cardinals' bullpen at some point this year, though I don't think that will be Opening Day. Gordon Graceffo and Chris Roycroft have looked sharp in camp as well, but considering both arms have options, I think the Cardinals will have them start the year in Memphis and then see what happens.

Just missed: Chris Roycroft, Luis Gastelum, and Packy Naughton

Lineups vs. RHP and LHP

vs. RHP

1. 2B JJ Wetherholt
2. C Ivan Herrera
3. 1B Alec Burleson
4. SS Masyn Winn
5. 3B Nolan Gorman
6. DH Nelson Velasquez
7. LF Nathan Church
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. CF Victor Scott II

How Cardinals' manager Oli Marmol puts together his lineup for Opening Day will be facinating to me. To me, the Cardinals' three best hitters are clearly JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, and Alec Burleson, so it would make a ton of sense to have them man the top three spots in the order, but that also does make the 4-9 spots feel really thin.

For awhile, I've had Wetherholt and Winn batting in the top two spots with Burleson and Herrera in the 3-4 spots, and that may end up being what Marmol goes with. Winn hasn't performed well at the top of the lineup in the past, but the Cardinals clearly believe he has another gear in him offensively, and that would really help the top of the Cardinals' lineup if he reaches that this year.

Against right-handed pitching, I think Church will get the early opportunities in left field, as it gives the Cardinals another awesome defender out there, and I know they believe he has more in the tank offensively. If Herrera is catching, Velasquez, Pozo, or Fermin all make sense as DH options.

vs. LHP

1. 2B JJ Wetherholt
2. DH Ivan Herrera
3. 1B Alec Burleson
4. SS Masyn Winn
5. LF Nelson Velasquez
6. 3B Nolan Gorman
7. C Pedro Pages
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. CF Victor Scott II

I do think the Cardinals will likely have Herrera be the designated hitter when lefties are on the mound, as it's an easy way to fit Pages into the lineup as another right-handed bat and get Herrera an off-day from behind the plate. When Herrera does catch though, Pozo or Fermin could easily see more playing time because of that, either at DH or Fermin could even play left field.

Ramon Urias may end up seeing some starts against lefties as well, as they could give Wetherholt the occasional off day against a lefty to rest him, or Urias could spell Gorman as well.

If the Cardinals trust Fermin or Saggese to play center field, I also would not be surprised to see one of them get a few starts out there against lefties over Scott, though the Cardinals really do value Scott's defense in center.