Cardinals Opening Day roster prediction one week into spring training games

One week into spring training action, the St. Louis Cardinals have displayed a variety of players and prospects in their game action, many of whom are fighting for spots on the Cardinals' 26-man roster.

Most years, there's a pretty clear outlook on who will be on the team and in what roles, but this year, there are quite a few roster spots and starting gigs up for grabs, with players who could either be starting on Opening Day in St. Louis or find themselves in Memphis. That makes for a wide range of outcomes, lending to a fun exercise in trying to predict who makes the Opening Day roster.

Even since my first prediction of the Opening Day roster when camp opened, there have been a number of things that have happened that have shaken up my original prediction. We broke down all different kinds of scenarios over on the Dealin' the Cards podcast this week, but here is my Opening Day roster prediction one week into spring training games.

Catchers (3) - Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, and Yohel Pozo

The catcher position is going to be one of the most debated battles of camp. Ivan Herrera will get his first game action behind the plate this spring on Sunday, and the Cardinals want to see if he can be a solution behind the plate in 2026 and hopefully beyond.

Where the Cardinals land with Herrera is going to have a major impact on the rest of the catching group and the 26-man roster as a whole, I'm predicting Herrera is at least a part of the rotation early in the year, but since he will likely still see a lot of time at designated hitter, the Cardinals will carry three catchers.

Pedro Pages was the club's primary catcher in 2025, and he'll likely keep a strong hold on the rotation for at least the beginning of the season. With a young pitching staff, there is value in having a guy like Pages command the group as often as possible. While I'd love to see Jimmy Crooks get opportunities, if he's not one of the primary two catchers, I think it may be best to start him in Memphis with Leonardo Bernal, and hopefully get him more consistent opportunities in St. Louis soon.

Now, don't be shocked if the Cardinals end up carrying all four catchers on their roster for Opening Day. I strongly considered that, as Pozo could end up being the right-handed bat off the bench who backs up Alec Burleson at first base and catches seldom. But for now, I'll have Pozo fill a similar role but catch a bit more without Crooks being on the roster.

Just missed: Jimmy Crooks

Infield (5) - Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, and Ramon Urias

The starting infield appears to be set in stone, but the recent signing of Ramon Urias has shaken up what the other spots may end up looking like.

Urias, a former Gold Glover who has had a productive big league career, could very easily push Nolan Gorman for playing time at third base, and he'll see playing time at other infield spots as needed. Chaim Bloom recently indicated that his signing allows the Cardinals to position guys like Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin toward more outfield opportunities, which is why you don't see them listed with the infield group (more on them later).

The Cardinals have all but officially confirmed at this point that JJ Wetherholt will be on their Opening Day roster and starting at second base. My guess is he'll see almost all of his reps there, but he may get to spell Masyn Winn at shortstop from time to time or see some action at third base.

Speaking of Winn, the 2025 Gold Glove award winner returns to be the Cardinals' starting shortstop for the third straight season, this time looking to rebound a bit offensively and truly establish himself as one of the best shortstops in the game. The pairing of Winn and Wetherholt up the middle could be one of the most dynamic in the sport for years to come.

Alec Burleson will get to replace Willson Contreras at first base, and is coming off his own award-winning season at the NL Utility Silver Slugger. Burleson has improved offensively every year of his career so far, and the Cardinals really need him to produce as one of their middle-of-the-order bats this year.

Gorman is set to get his own runway at third base, and while I think his role is fairly safe for the first month or so of 2026, I'm not sure how much patience the club will have with him this time around. Back in 2023, Gorman slugged 27 home runs in just 119 games, but he's been well below league average at the plate ever since. His defense also leaves a lot to be desired at third base currently.

Just missed: Cesar Prieto

Outfield (3) - Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, and Nathan Church

I promise I'll get to Saggese and Fermin, but for now, I want to look at who I would define as the three primary outfielders on the Opening Day roster. Also, I am projecting Lars Nootbaar to begin the season on the IL as he recovers from double heel surgery, which is why his name is absent.

Jordan Walker, like Nolan Gorman, had a great 2023 campaign but is now facing a make-or-break season out in right field. He also should see plenty of runway to begin the year, but he is also unlikely to have infinite runway this year. Walker has reportedly really taken to coaching this offseason and has made tangible changes to his swing and approach, and if that translates to games, we could see a revitalization of Walker's career.

Victor Scott II was the talk of the offseason for the Cardinals, as they are extremely excited about his work ethic and the room for growth in his game. While he didn't capture a Gold Glove like Winn last year, he was a finalist for the award, and he's clearly one of the top defenders in the game. His speed is undeniable, and if he can figure out how to get on base at a higher clip, he has the potential to steal a ton of bases in 2026.

While Scott has been at the tip of the Cardinals' tongue when it comes to praise, behind the scenes, it is clear they really like Nathan Church as well. Church broke out in a big way at Memphis last year and got a decent amount of time with the big league club in 2026. It seems likely that he'll make the roster, especially with his elite defense, and a strong camp could help him claim more starts early in the season while Nootbaar is on the mend.

Due to the utility options I have the Cardinals carrying on their roster, I do not think non-roster invitee Nelson Velasquez will make the Opening Day roster, although he certainly could factor into their plans at some point. He has big league experience and much-needed power from the right side.

Just missed: Lars Nootbaar (projected IL stint to begin year) and Nelson Velasquez

Utility (2) - Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin

I have gone back and forth since the Urias signing on whether or not I believe both Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin will make the Opening Day roster, but for now, I have them both in the mix for roles early in the season.

Fermin saw some outfield reps with the Cardinals last year and is someone that various people in the organization have wanted to see more opportunities for. Fermin only got 70 plate appearances with St. Louis in 2025, but managed to post a .283/.377/.417 slash line, good for a 129 wRC+.

Saggese, on the other hand, has only played in the infield during his career, but has now drawn a start in left field and center field prior to leaving for the World Baseball Classic this weekend. Saggese is also trying to display versatility so he can get into the Cardinals lineup, and frankly, it'll be needed just to even make the roster.

Saggese seeing time in center field is very interesting to me. The Cardinals don't have a right-handed center field option currently, and Saggese could draw some starts there based on matchups if he has a strong camp. Jon Jay is working hard with Fermin and Saggese and will give Marmol his thoughts on their readiness as camp rolls on.

Saggese leaving for the WBC will make it harder for them to monitor his defensive progress, but I do lean right now that they'll at least feel comfortable with it enough to roster him and see how he begins the year. If Saggese doesn't seem ready to play the outfield, I would bet he starts the year in Memphis to improve before he gets a shot with the club.

I don't think either player is done playing infield, though, which is why I have them in the utility category. Both will likely still see some opportunities in the dirt, finding any way possible to get into the lineup. I'm very intrigued to see how both players perform this year.

Once Nootbaar returns, though, one of them is likely going to be sent down to Memphis, unless there's an injury or someone else is struggling.

Just missed: Bryan Torres

Rotation (5) - Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Richard Fitts, and Kyle Leahy

When it comes to the Cardinals' rotation this year, there are many names who could make starts for them throughout the season. Many of those I do think will get their chance, but the five-man group above is who I think will get first cracks at it.

Matthew Liberatore is the favorite to take the ball on Opening Day for the Cardinals. The 26-year-old had a breakout season for St. Louis in 2025, posting a 4.21 ERA in 29 starts over 151.2 innings of work. At times, Liberatore looked like a front-line starter, but he ran into issues during the summer going deep into games. He seemed to rebound as the year went on, and is now looking to put it all together for a highly productive campaign.

Dustin May, who was the Cardinals' big free agent signing this offseason, has flashed a return to throwing with high velocity in camp, and that could bode well for a bounce-back campaign. He is going to be a top trade asset for the Cardinals at the deadline if he has a strong year, so the early returns during camp are very promising.

Michael McGreevy is set to have a full run in the rotation this year after impressing in his 17 games last year. McGreevy projects to be a back-of-the-rotation starter long-term, but that can be very valuable for the club that has paid tens of millions of dollars to veterans in recent years to fill that void. He already seems to be taking a leadership role on the staff as well.

Those three seem to most "guaranteed" of the bunch to have spots in the rotation, but I actually feel fairly confident in who the other two options will be. Richard Fitts, who the Cardinals acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, has been pumping big-time velocity in camp as well and has the upside of a middle-of-the-rotation starter. I really think the Cardinals are going to want to see Fitts get as many starts as he can this year, but I wouldn't be shocked if he sees time in the bullpen as well.

Same goes for Kyle Leahy, who the Cardinals have been positioning for a chance to start this year and should take the bull by the horns. Leahy impressed the Cardinals last year with his bulldog mentality in the bullpen, and he has the stuff and makeup to be an impactful starter in this league.

Others, like Quinn Mathews, Hunter Dobbins, and Andre Pallante, will get starts throughout the year as well, but I feel confident in saying this will be their five-man crew come Opening Day.

Just missed: Quinn Mathews and Hunter Dobbins

Bullpen (8) - Riley O'Brien, Matt Svanson, JoJo Romero, Ryan Stanek, Justin Bruhil, Matt Pushard, George Soriano, and Andre Pallante

Ah, the bullpen. There are honestly so many names that could crack this group come Opening Day, and many more that we can see throughout the year.

From a high-leverage lens, Riley O'Brien, Matt Svanson, and JoJo Romero are the clear front-runners for late-inning spots and save opportunities. If I had to pick who would be the closer, I would go with them selecting O'Brien, but I actually think they'll go with more of a "closer by committee" mentality early in the year. If there's a left-handed heavy lane in the ninth inning, why not throw Romero there? But if not, O'Brien or Svanson would be great.

Ryan Stanek and Justin Bruhil factor into the middle relief core, with both of them filling in late in games when guys are unavailable. Stanek has been a key part of playoff bullpens before and is nice insurance for this very young group of relievers. When it comes to Bruihl, I am less certain of him making the roster, as names like Packy Naughton or Nick Raquet could win that spot.

George Soriano, who the Cardinals acquired for Andre Granillio in a trade at the start of camp, is a sleeper option to get a bigger role as the year goes on with his swing and miss. Matt Pushard, who the Cardinals selected in the Rule 5 draft, needs a strong spring to make the roster.

The last spot in my bullpen goes to Pallante, who I see the Cardinals using as a swing-man and spot starter early in the year, much like Steven Matz last season. I don't see them running a true six-man rotation, but I do expect Pallante to get a few starts early in the year as they look to keep arms healthy.

Just missed: Packy Naughton and Luis Gastelum

Lineups vs. RHP/LHP pitching

vs. RHP

1. 2B JJ Wetherholt
2. SS Masyn Winn
3. 1B Alec Burleson
4. C Ivan Herrera
5. 3B Nolan Gorman
6. DH Thomas Saggese
7. LF Nathan Church
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. CF Victor Scott II

With Lars Nootbaar likely on the mend to begin 2026, the Cardinals options for the top of their lineup are rather thin, and so I expect JJ Wetherholt to go ahead and earn that prestigous title on Opening Day.

It's a lot of pressure for a guy who has literally never played in a big league game, but he is the kind of player who does not get phased by expectations and pressure. The Cardinals expect a big year from him, and having Winn, Burleson, and Herrera behind him to "protect him" would be nice.

The big surprise of this list is Church starting, who I think could very well carve himself out a significant role early in the year. This would help the Cardinals have an even stronger defense, but they can also rotate Saggese and Fermin in that corner outfield spot as needed.

I do think Herrera will start a good amount of games at catcher to at least begin the year, so doing so against righties allows them to fit another "bat" in their lineup over Pages. But whenever Pages starts against righties, Herrera would DH, and then Saggese, Fermin, or Church can play left field.

vs. LHP

1. 2B JJ Wetherholt
2. SS Masyn Winn
3. 1B Alec Burleson
4. DH Ivan Herrera
5. LF Thomas Saggese
6. 3B Ramon Urias
7. RF Jordan Walker
8. C Pedro Pages
9. CF Victor Scott II

The Cardinals have a lot of ways they can handle their lineup vs. left-handed pitching. I do believe Gorman will get plenty of looks against lefties, but I also see this as a spot where they will try to fit guys like Saggese, Fermin, Pages, and Urias into the lineup.

In general, I very much expect the lineup to be fluid as the year goes on. Outside of Wetherholt, Burleson, Winn, and Herrera, I think everyone's spot is kind of in flux, and while some will have more runway than others, there is plenty of opportunity to win bigger roles.

The order of this lineup can also be shaken up quite a bit. If guys like Walker or Gorman have bounce back seasons, they could end up in the middle of the order. If Church, Saggese, Urias, or Fermin show out, they could grab bigger roles as well. And the return of Nootbaar will certainly change things as well.