7 players facing their last stand with the Cardinals heading out of All-Star break

The St. Louis Cardinals have 12 days to decide the fate of their 2025 roster, how they'll end the John Mozeliak era, and how they'll begin the Chaim Bloom regime.

With the Cardinals' surprise 51-46 record at this point in the season and sitting just 1.5 games out of the NL Wild Card, the club has an argument to capitalize on that momentum and forgo moving valuable trade pieces to build for the future. On the other hand, most fans and media seem to have a similar view of the club — an impressive showing thus far, but not good enough to pass on building for the future.

With the Cardinals themselves stuck in this crossroads and unsure of what to do next, it has created an uncertain future for many players on their roster over the next two weeks.

I've identified seven players that, for various reasons, may be facing their "last stand" with the club over the next 12 days prior to the deadline, or the final two months of the season prior to the offseason. This may be due to the state of the team and the potential of them being trade chips, and for others, it's about whether or not they fit into the picture long-term.

Here are 7 players who are potentially facing their last stand with the Cardinals as the second half gets underway.

Erick Fedde

No matter what happens between now and the trade deadline, Erick Fedde's days as a Cardinal seem to be numbered. The Cardinals want to create a rotation spot for Michael McGreevy, and John Mozeliak has alluded to that happening by August at the latest.

Fedde has severely regressed on the mound this year, which makes it hard to imagine the Cardinals can salvage any value in a trade at this deadline, but they'll certainly try.

It's why we saw Fedde take the ball once again this past Saturday against the Atlanta Braves after two horrific starts that should have seen him lose his spot in the rotation. The Cardinals want to find a way to get something for him, and they believe that if he can bounce back in whatever remaining starts he has, well, that can be enough to get a team calling.

I'd be shocked if he's worth more than a very insignificant prospect, which is a shame considering the Cardinals should have been able to move him for more value in the offseason, but elected not to. McGreevy being held down in Memphis for the majority of this year has been a huge tragedy, as the Cardinals claimed development was top priority this year and McGreevy should have been doing so at the big league level for months now.

If the Cardinals cannot find a trade partner for Fedde, expect him to be designated for an assignment in hopes that a team picks up the rest of his contract for the remainder of the year.

Jordan Walker

The poster child for this "runway" season, Jordan Walker, has been awful at the plate, flashed encouraging signs in the outfield defensively, but has also missed significant time due to injuries.

55 games and 191 plate appearances are far off the pace the Cardinals hoped he'd be on at this point in the year to see what potential he still has in his bat, but honestly, Walker hasn't done anything to justify real runway moving forward the rest of the year. There has to be nuance in conversations like this. Yes, the Cardinals said Walker would have every opportunity this year to prove his worth, but at some point, being as bad as he's been has to matter, especially when other options are producing.

Walker has put up a .210/.267/.295 slash line with three home runs and 23 RBI this year, and his 60 wRC+ means he's been 40% below league average at the plate and among the worst hitters in all of baseball. While the defense has been better, it's not good enough to make him a valuable player with how bad his bat is, as he would be tied with Brenton Doyle for the second-worst fWAR in all of baseball (-0.8) if he qualified for leaderboards.

Adding to that, Walker's 33% strikeout rate, .295 SLG, and .085 ISO are all career worsts, which is even more disheartening considering those are three of the areas the Cardinals needed to see improvement from Walker in 2025. While Walker has regressed, Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman have taken advantage of their opportunities, and Ivan Herrera's move away from the catcher position further complicated opportunities.

So what do you do with a player who is performing this poorly but has such high prospect pedigree and is still just 23 years old?

The Cardinals are reportedly weighing their options. For now, he's on the roster, and they will try to find time for him to play, but it will be difficult with the other players on their roster. If they move other position players in trades, it could free up space for him. They could look to trade Walker as well, something Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported was at least a consideration.

I wouldn't rule out Walker being optioned to Memphis at some point as well if they do not find playing time for him, but your guess is as good as mine as to how this situation unfolds. Walker is being activated off the injured list today, so time is ticking for him to get things going.

Steven Matz

For the first three years of his contract, Steven Matz has been a headache for Cardinals fans. When he was right, he was a dynamic starter for the team, often performing as one of their top rotation options and having a bit more swing-and-miss in his arsenal compared to other arms the Cardinals had. But more often than not, Matz was either out with an injury or blowing up on the mound, making that four-year, $44 million deal feel like a massive failure.

This offseason, the Cardinals decided to hold onto Matz, opting to see how spring training went for all parties involved. If the Cardinals had injuries to their other rotation arms, Matz was there to step in. If not, they could use him out of the bullpen as much as they needed to.

The latter has occurred, and Matz has stepped into a big role with the Cardinals' bullpen. He's served as a high-leverage left-handed option late in games, he's covered multiple innings when starters don't go deep into games, and he's even started two games when the Cardinals needed a six-man rotation earlier in the season.

Matz has performed well in all of those roles, posting a 3.35 ERA and 2.93 FIP in his 51 innings of work. Without Matz this year, the Cardinals would have run into a lot of issues, so they face a really tough choice with him over the next few weeks.

Matz is drawing interest from teams around the league as both a starter and a reliever. The Cardinals could use his first-half performance to try and salvage as much value as they possibly can, especially in a trade market that is not going to have many starters or relievers available. They could hold onto Matz as a bullpen option to help them compete down the stretch as rotation depth if needed, or they could even move him into the rotation if they get really bold and part with both Fedde and Mikolas.

How the club decided to handle Matz will be one of the prime examples of how they view toeing the line at this deadline. Trading him helps their future, while holding him helps their present. Which takes priority?

Lars Nootbaar

There have been rumblings lately that the Cardinals could consider a "baseball trade" at this deadline, an industry phrase simply meaning swapping big league talent for big league talent, and Lars Nootbaar may fit that mold for the club.

Nootbaar has had a down year at the plate, but still remains a valuable player and someone teams around the league would love to get their hands on. Nootbaar's 104 wRC+ is well below his career norm, but the same underlying metrics that make him a Statcast darling remain.

While some are convinced that Nootbaar is not good enough to be an everyday starter for the Cardinals, I think they'll be surprised when teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, or other contenders come calling wanting to have Nootbaar fill a void in their lineup.

For the Cardinals, they already have an abundance of left-handed bats, and with JJ Wetherholt seemingly months, if not weeks, away from his MLB debut, that is only going to grow. Fitting all of Nootbaar, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, JJ Wetherholt, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker into their lineup with just four positions available is not feasible, so the Cardinals are going to have to trade from that logjam soon, whether that is at this deadline or the offseason.

Nootbaar, out of that camp, feels like the right player to part with due to the kind of value he'd bring back while not being too big of a loss to bear. If the Cardinals flip Walker or Gorman, I'm not sure what they get in return, but it is probably not all that valuable. If they trade Herrera or Donovan, they could get a great return, but it's not worth losing those players. Nootbaar is the guy; they have other players with similar profiles who can replace his production, and he could net them the pitching that they need.

Do they call up a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Seattle Mariners and see if they can swap Nootbaar and a bit more for a Taj Bradley or Bryce Miller? Can they get one of the young arms the Dodgers have? If so, it's hard not to consider making that move here soon.

Even if Nootbaar is not moved at this deadline, the second half of this season is potentially his last stand with the club. He's really going to have to turn things up a few notches to change the narrative here, and even then, the Cardinals may just see that as him upping his trade value even further.

Ryan Helsley

If you check out any of the insiders around the game of baseball, Ryan Helsley's name continues to be one of the most popular thrown out there as a player that teams are going to want to acquire at this year's trade deadline — but will the Cardinals actually shop him?

Through 33 games this year, Helsley has posted a 3.27 ERA and 3.84 FIP while striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced. His fastball continues to regress as a pitch, and his slider hasn't been as effective as it was in years past. Still, with the track record and pedigree that Helsley carries as an elite closer, teams are going to be tempted by him and would love to add him to their mix.

Last year, Helsley led all of baseball in saves with 49 to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. The year prior, Helsley missed significant time with injuries but still posted a 2.25 ERA in his 33 games. In 2022, Helsley posted an incredible 1.25 ERA in 64.2 innings of work. There are very few closers who can match that production from Helsley since then.

Plenty of contenders are going to want to grab Helsley in a trade. Keith Law of The Athletic recently said on 101 ESPN that he believed the Cardinals could "hold the market hostage" with a Helsley trade and pry a lot of value from a team because of the upside he presents. While I am a bit skeptical of that myself, plenty of people keep saying it, so maybe the industry still does view Helsley in a favorable way.

For comparison, best-case scenario, I think the Cardinals are looking at a return that is a half or full step down from the Jordan Montgomery package back in 2023. Montgomery and Chris Stratton netted the Cardinals Tekoah Roby, Thomas Saggese, and John King, a really nice return looking back at the deal. Something in that range, likely a bit less, or maybe one better prospect if they go for quality over quantity, feels like where the high range of Helsley's value lands.

The question then becomes how critical is holding onto Helsley for the Cardinals? Can they go through the second half without their closer? Does getting value for the future trump what he brings to them now? Apparently, the club still views him as a potential qualifying offer guy, so they complicate things a bit further.

Phil Maton

The Cardinals' lone free agent signing this offseason came in the final stretch of spring training, when they signed veteran reliever Phil Maton to a $2 million deal to help bolster their bullpen for the 2025 season.

Maton has done nothing but smash expectations since signing that deal.

Many considered Maton an All-Star snub, as he sported a sub-2.00 ERA when the roster was announced, only recently seeing this ERA jump up to 2.55 after surrendering his first home run of the year on a three-run blast by Sean Murphy last weekend.

In total, Maton has pitched in 37 games for the Cardinals this year, posting that 2.55 ERA and a 2.52 FIP while striking out 30.4% of the batters he has faced. He is another name that teams would love to add to their bullpens down the stretch, and it's really just up to the Cardinals as to whether they shop him.

I am very curious about how they handle Maton specifically. If the Cardinals want to toe the line at this deadline and teams really value Ryan Helsley as highly as insiders say they do, could the Cardinals look to flip Helsley and move Maton to the closer role? That could be the best way to keep their momentum down the stretch while also adding real value for the future.

If they'd rather shop Maton, he should net them something interesting as well, but it is hard to know what that could be. Considering they signed him for just $2 million at the end of spring training, Maton would be an A++ signing if he gets them a nice return on top of the value he provided up until a potential trade.

With Maton being the third and final reliever on this list, I do want to address the possibility that the Cardinals hold onto all of their bullpen pieces at this deadline. I do think that would be a mistake, but it is one they may consider if they perform well out of the gates between now and July 31st. Part of the reason the club has been so successful this year has been this bullpen, so subtracting from it only hurts their chances.

I would argue that they can afford to lose one or two, and while it would make things harder for sure, that's where they tap on the shoulders of young arms like Matt Svanson, Andre Granillo, Gordon Graceffo, Ryan Fernandez, and others to see if they can pick up the slack. Runway, some would call it. Could it epically fail? Sure, it could. But so could this season have been when they went into camp only subtracting from their roster, so they've proven they can defy the odds before.

Nolan Arenado

We haven't heard much about a potential Nolan Arenado trade in a while, but as the trade deadline draws near, I fully expect the Cardinals to be open to a move if one becomes available.

Let's start out with the obvious, though: Arenado has a no-trade clause, and I really don't know if he would want to change teams midseason. He vetoed a trade to Houston in the offseason and shot down the Los Angeles Angels' interest as well, so who knows what he would be open to, if anything, at this deadline.

The Los Angeles Dodgers expect Max Muncy's bone bruise to linger into the 2026 season, so could they see Arenado as a helpful piece to add down the stretch for their club? The New York Yankees are still in the market for a third baseman and were reportedly on Arenado's "list" this offseason. Maybe Arenado sees the Detroit Tigers' success this year and is open to a move there.

Ultimately, the Cardinals can only move Arenado if he is open to it, but if he is, the Cardinals have to try and get a deal done.

It's been fun to watch Arenado's magic defensively at third base for one more season, but we have to be real about where the Cardinals are as a team, who is coming to replace him soon, the financial ramifications of holding onto him, and the regression we continue to see with his bat.

In 84 games this year, Arenado has posted a .246/.305/.388 slash line with 10 home runs and 42 RBI. His 93 wRC+ means he's been a below league-average hitter this year, and that wRC+ number has been in decline every year since 2022. With two years remaining on his contract, do the Cardinals really want to be stuck with his bat continuing to regress?

I'm not completely ruling out a resurgence and improvement from Arenado, but I'd be far more inclined to believe that happens with the Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers, or a team like that than here in St. Louis. I also believe those teams can afford to take a chance on Arenado returning to form a bit, and the Cardinals cannot.

JJ Wetherholt is coming. And when he is here, which could be just over a month away, the Cardinals have to have a spot available for him, and right now, that playing time is as clear as mud.

Arenado continuing to remain on the Cardinals roster is blocking young talent from spreading their wings and proving if they can fly or they'll fall flat on their face. That is what the Cardinals need to see from here on out, not Arenado's defensive wizardry or timely hitting that sometimes still finds him.

If the Cardinals are able to move Arenado at this deadline, they should. If they are not able to, I expect 2025 to be his last year in a Cardinals uniform as they aggressively pursue potential suitors in the offseason.