5 biggest questions for the St. Louis Cardinals in the second half

The end of the 2025 All-Star Break marks an important time for the St. Louis Cardinals. It's a demarcation line of sorts.

The Cardinals enter the second half 6.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central and 1.5 games out of the final spot in the National League Wild Card race.

As a team, the Cardinals rank eleventh in batting average, thirteenth in wRC+, fourteenth in OPS, and tenth in total home runs. Their offense has been about average in most statistical categories. From a pitching perspective, the club ranks twentieth in ERA, ninth in FIP, twenty-ninth in K/9, and nineteenth in ERA-. The pitching staff has relied heavily on a strong defense.

The Cardinals not only enter a pivotal point in the season, but they also enter an important time as an organization.

With John Mozeliak out at the end of this year, Chaim Bloom is set to take over as the team's president of baseball operations. John Mozeliak is seeking to have a strong end to his final year at the helm while also setting up his successor well. That's a tough balance to strike for Mozeliak. It will certainly impact his decision making over the next two-and-a-half months.

The Cardinals have several major questions to answer as they enter the second half of the 2025 season.

Will the Cardinals be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Unfortunately, this question doesn't have an answer right now.

The Cardinals are on the outside looking in at the postseason as things currently stand, but one strong week from them paired with the Cubs, Brewers, Padres, or Mets could vault the Cardinals into the playoffs. That's how volatile things currently are with the postseason.

The amount of bubble teams across Major League Baseball has the trade deadline very much murky at the moment. While there are certain teams who will certainly be sellers this year, there are more teams who are looking to be buyers this year.

Therefore, the Cardinals aren't quite sure if they'll be buyers or sellers this year. In her recent piece discussing the Cardinals' path during the deadline, Katie Woo of The Athletic discusses this uncertainty. "Over three weeks remain until (John) Mozeliak must make a final call. How the Cardinals play through July will dictate just how close he cuts it."

Mozeliak detailed this lack of solidity in plans as well. “As we get closer to the 31st, that’s really where we’ll be trying to decide,” Mozeliak said. “I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions.”

If the Cardinals can win and place themselves more firmly in the playoff discussion, expect them to add on the margins to round out the team. If they fall further out of the postseason picture, expect them to trade away players like Erick Fedde, Phil Maton, and others.

Look for the Cardinals to make more concrete plans regarding the trade deadline as the month comes to a close.

Will contention or player development take precedence?

Manager Oliver Marmol has been walking a fine line all season. He's had to field the most competitive roster while also keeping an eye on the development for players like Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Victor Scott II. He's also had to manage for his job with a new boss coming in next year.

So far, Marmol has done well at balancing competition and player development. He's ridden the hot hand more often than not with the position players, and that's boded well for the Cardinals. Alec Burleson has turned it on after a cold start to the year, and Nolan Gorman has found his power stroke as regular playing time has come his way.

The question remains: will a desire for contention outweigh the focus on the future?

If the Cardinals want to remain competitive, players like Jordan Walker, who has a .210 batting average and a 60 wRC+, and Lars Nootbaar, who has a career-low .381 slugging percentage, could find less playing time in the second half. Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and even Thomas Saggese could take at-bats away from these guys down the stretch if they can continue to hit well.

If the Cardinals want to prioritize player development, there's a chance that Jordan Walker remains an everyday player despite his struggles. Lars Nootbaar will continue to get at-bats if that's the case as well, too. Unless these key "runway" players turn it on in the second half, the player development roster won't be as good as the competitive roster.

Lucky for the organization, Ivan Herrera has had a terrific season from an offensive perspective. The club's designated hitter and backup catcher has a .320/.394/.529 slash line with eight home runs and 36 RBIs through only 43 games. The 25-year-old is certainly a young player who is developing well and keeping the team competitive.

Remaining competitive while also giving at-bats to young players has been a theme all year for the St. Louis Cardinals. That dichotomy is about to become even more emphasized as the second half kicks off.

What will happen with Oliver Marmol?

Oliver Marmol received a contract extension in March of 2024 that would keep him under contract through the 2026 season. Since that extension, the Cardinals have gone 133-125 for a .515 winning percentage. Good, not great.

Marmol has handled a very difficult roster and request from the front office well this year. He's kept the team within sniffing distance of the playoffs, and the club is performing much better than most people expected. Marmol is also a potential National League Manager of the Year candidate if the club can make the postseason.

Despite this relative success as the in-house leader, Marmol could find himself a free agent at the end of the year if not earlier.

If the Cardinals continue to win, Marmol isn't going anywhere. Firing a manager in the middle of a playoff push doesn't happen often. Fully expect Marmol to manage the Cardinals in the postseason if they make it.

If the club finishes with a record above .500 but misses the playoffs, his fate for the 2026 season may be up in the air. That would be three straight seasons without a postseason berth for the Cardinals. While those playoff-less seasons aren't entirely Marmol's fault, blame is typically placed on the manager for losing teams. Chaim Bloom could like what he sees in Marmol to give him one final chance in 2026, or he could appoint a manager of his own choice.

If the Cardinals fall below .500 at any point in the second half, expect Oli Marmol to be relieved of his duties before the end of the season. Fanbase ire paired with a front office that's in flux won't help Oli's chances either. Bench coach Daniel Descalso would probably be designated the interim manager before Bloom searches in the offseason for a manager of his own choice.

It's a win-and-stay situation for Oliver Marmol as the second half of the 2025 season kicks off. His fate as the manager of the Cardinals is a bit wobbly right now with a new regime coming in next year. Chaim Bloom probably has ample data and information on Marmol already; if he likes the 39-year-old skipper enough, Oli will stay. Making the postseason with this roster wouldn't hurt his case by any means.

Which runway player or players won't make it to the end of the year?

Before the season started, two players were mentioned frequently by name as ones who will receive ample playing time this year. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, for better or worse, were named as key players for this year who would receive 600 at-bats to show their value.

Jordan Walker was receiving playing time at the start of the year, but as he cooled off and subsequently got hurt, his pace slowed significantly. Walker is now on pace to see around 300 at-bats. Nolan Gorman's runway was cut short right out of the gate when Alec Burleson was inserted as the team's Opening Day designated hitter. Gorman is on pace to see just a smidge over 300 at-bats this year. Neither Gorman nor Walker will reach the illustrious 600-AB mark this year.

These two runway players have seen their expected playing time drop already.

Behind Walker and Gorman came players like Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, and Lars Nootbaar as key "runway" players. When healthy, these three have been in the lineup on most nights. Nootbaar has already logged 331 at-bats in 88 games. Burleson is sitting at 290 at-bats in 85 games. Herrera, due to two separate IL stints, has recorded only 153 at-bats in 43 games.

Burleson and Herrera will continue to see consistent time due to their 124 and 158 OPS+ numbers, respectively. It remains to be seen what will happen to Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Lars Nootbaar.

Jordan Walker, once a top-three prospect in all of baseball, is slashing .210/.267/.295 with a strikeout rate of 33%. This comes on the heels of a season where he posted a wRC+ of just 71. Walker's strikeout rate has risen each year of his career while his ISO has fallen. He continues to struggle ot his line drives and fly balls with authority, and he's at risk of being another failed top prospect for the club.

Nolan Gorman started the year off on the bench as a reserve. However, he posted an OPS of .867 in the month of June with six home runs. He's cooled off slightly in July with a .741 OPS through eight games, but he's certainly hitting the ball better than he was at the beginning of the year.

After a strong start as the club's leadoff hitter during the months of March and April, Nootbaar has failed to post an OPS north of .681 in a month. He's been shifted down in the lineup, and his strikeouts have been exorbitant given his track record.

In order to squeeze in playing time for everyone, at least one runway player will have to be relegated to the bench on a more regular basis. Will it be Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar? We'll find out.

Which top prospect will make his debut in the second half?

This is where things get fun. We all love talking about a promising future and talented prospects.

Michael McGreevy will be the first name called should a spot in the major league rotation open up in the second half. That much is certain. However, other youngsters could make their debuts this year if there's a need on the team or if these young players force the front office's hand.

According to MLB Pipeline, the Cardinals' top-five prospects are infielder JJ Wetherholt, LHP Quinn Mathews, catcher Leonardo Bernal, catcher Rainiel Rodriguez, and RHP Tink Hence. Behind them are catcher Jimmy Crooks, infielder Yairo Padilla, outfielder Chase Davis, and RHP Tekoah Roby.

Let's remove Rodriguez, Padilla, Davis, and Bernal from these odds. They're all at least two levels away and still relatively young and inexperienced. Hence, and Roby recently went on the IL, and there is still a lot of concern with their health profiles to promote them to the majors. While either could find a late-season bullpen appearance, it isn't likely given their health histories.

That leaves JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, and Jimmy Crooks as potential second-half promotions. Wetherholt recently got promoted to Triple-A Memphis, and he's on a quick path to the majors. If he can prove that he can handle higher-level pitching with Memphis, we could see Wetherholt make his debut this year. The Cardinals already have a glut of middle infielders, so a trade or injury would necessitate his promotion.

Quinn Mathews is still having some trouble adjusting to the major-league ball at Triple-A. He has a 4.43 ERA through 40.2 innings in Memphis. He's struck out 43 batters but walked 39 already, his total last year in 13 starts at Memphis. His final start before the break featured him going four innings while striking out five and walking only two batters. Finding consistency will be key in Mathews's promotion.

Jimmy Crooks is an interesting candidate here. The Cardinals have ample catching depth at the majors right now with Pedro Pages as the regular and Yohel Pozo as his backup. Ivan Herrera is the third-string catcher, but the team is looking to keep him away from behind the plate to limit injury risks. This makes Crooks a curious candidate.

Crooks isn't hitting as well this year at Memphis as he did last year with Springfield. He has a .260/.321/.440 slash line with 11 home runs in 68 games. He's managed to maintain most of his power from previous years, but he's also striking out at a career-high rate of 27.8%. If the Cardinals want to test Crooks, giving him some late-season at-bats should be a good place to start.

With this being a year focused on player development, the Cardinals will certainly want to see what their top prospects are able to do before the year is out. Trades and injuries will dictate second-half promotions, but expect to see at least one of JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, and Jimmy Crooks as the calendar flips to September and October.