4 final trade predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals on deadline day

The St. Louis Cardinals got in on the MLB trade deadline action on Wednesday night, sending two-time All-Star closer Ryan Helsley to the New York Mets in one of the biggest deals we've seen at this year's deadline. They later finalized a late-night deal to send Steven Matz to the Boston Red Sox!

The Cardinals still have multiple trade assets on their hands that rival teams want to get their hands on, but with time ticking between now and the 5 pm CT deadline, they'll need to act swiftly and decisively to get each of the deals done that they would like to accomplish.

Here are my final 5 predictions for the Cardinals on trade deadline day

#1- Phil Maton brings the Cardinals a return that matches some of the "overpays" we saw this week

If you kept up with some of the trades made over the last 24 hours, you may notice that some relievers, like Seranthony Dominguez and especially Tyler Rogers, netted their teams quite a return compared to what people expected they would bring in on the open market.

Rogers, who was traded by the San Francisco Giants to the New York Mets, brought the Giants back RHP José Buttó, RHP Blade Tidwell, and OF Drew Gilbert. No, they aren't top prospects in baseball, but it's quite a bit of value for a rental reliever that doesn't have the pedigree of guys like Helsley, but Rogers' on-field production this year made him a very attractive trade candidate.

Rogers, in 53 appearances for the Giants this year, has posted a 1.80 ERA, 2.13 FIP, and 0.9 fWAR. He's been a highly impactful reliever, doing so in one of the most unorthodox ways in all of baseball. He's not your typical high velocity reliever, but he sure knows how to get outs.

Just like Phil Maton.

Maton, in 40 appearances for St. Louis, has a 2.35 ERA and 2.49 FIP, posting a 1.0 fWAR while striking out 30.4% of the batters he faces. While both Rogers and Maton rank among the best relievers in baseball in xERA, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, GB%, and average exit velocity, Maton has far more swing and miss in his game. Rogers induces whiffs at just a 19.9% rate and strikes out batters just 20.2% of the time, while Maton's 30.4 K% ranks in the 91st percentile, and his 34.7 whiff% is in the 95th percentile.

Maton has pitched in the postseason every year since 2020, including being a major part of the Houston Astros' World Series championship in 2022. Maton has been traded midseason three different times in his career already, and actually got significantly better with his new team two of those times.

Contenders should be dying to add Maton to the back of their bullpen, as he's a reliever who has great success against both right-handed and left-handed pitching, a crucial skill to have once the postseason comes around. Maton also only makes $2 million this year, so acquiring him won't cost an ownership group much financially, which we know matters to those guys.

If the Giants got that kind of return for Rogers, the Cardinals should be hoping for something similar for Maton's services, and that would be a very, very nice jolt to the Cardinals' deadline haul on top of what they already got for Ryan Helsley.

#2 - JoJo Romero is traded for a haul that matches or exceeds what the Cardinals got for Ryan Helsley

Yup, you read that correctly.

I think the Cardinals could get a similar, if not better return, for JoJo Romero than what they got for Helsley.

In 40 appearances for the Cardinals this year, Romero has a 2.12 ERA and 2.89 FIP, striking out 24.1% of the batters he faces. In 27 appearances since May 1st, Romero has given up just one earned run, posting a 0.38 ERA, the second-best ERA among all relievers over that stretch and best among left-handed relievers.

Look at the National League playoff contenders. The Dodgers (Ohtani, Freeman, Rushing, Outman), Phillies (Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, Kepler, Stott), Cubs (Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Busch), Mets (Soto, Nimmo, McNeil, Baty), Padres (Merrill, Arraez, Cronenworth, Sheets), and Brewers (Yelich, Frelick, Turang) all rely heavily on left-handed production form their lineups, with the Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, and Padres specifically boasting star level talent. If a team wants to get through the National League playoffs and make it to the World Series, they need arms to shut those guys down.

Romero is the perfect fit to do that.

On the season, lefties are slashing just .192/.271/.250 off of Romero, and he's allowed just 10 total hits, three doubles, no home runs, and one earned run to the 62 lefties he's faced this year. Sounds like a weapon to me!

Romero also has one more year of club control beyond this year, which we know teams typically value quite a bit. Contenders wouldn't be just acquiring Romero for the stretch run; they'd have him in 2026 as well on a bargain deal.

Sure, the Cardinals could say that they'd love to keep him around, but with the prices being paid for rental relievers and the ridiculous haul the Phillies gave up for Jhoan Duran, who has two years of control beyond this year, Romero's name should very much be in play for contenders who want him.

We have no idea what kind of offers the Cardinals may get for Romero, but assuming a team comes in and makes a strong push, how could the Cardinals refuse? I expect someone to blow them away with an offer before the deadline passes and Romero joins a contender for the remainder of 2025 and the 2026 season.

#3 - Nolan Arenado stays put

Despite reported interest in Nolan Arenado resurfacing from the Houston Astros recently, the club pivoted to trading for Baltimore Orioles infielder Ramon Urias last night, likely ending any chance of that truly bubbling up again.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has indicated that teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez, whom the Seattle Mariners acquired last night from the Arizona Diamondbacks, may pivot to Arenado in the aftermath. Those teams would include the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, and possibly the Philadelphia Phillies

While I guess one of those clubs could make a surprise run at Arenado today, I doubt it at this point. I think the Cardinals are going to be stuck with Arenado for the remainder of 2025 and will have to cross their fingers that Chaim Bloom can move him in the offseason.

It's been a really poor year for Arenado offensively, posting a .235/.295/.367 slash line with just 10 home runs in 85 games. His 84 wRC+ on the year is another major step down in production year over year, and he has only been worth 0.8 fWAR on the season. At 34 years old with two years remaining on his contract, this is aging really poorly.

If the Cardinals find a suitor today or in the offseason, they are going to have to eat significant money on Arenado's deal. Yes, he's been great defensively this year, but that's not nearly enough value to make up for the big contract he's on right now.

Moving Arenado would really help the Cardinals find playing time for young bats on their roster, something they really need to do. While moving Arenado would be in their best interest, I don't see a deal coming where he would waive his no-trade clause today.

St. Louis needs to consider lessening Arenado's playing time down the stretch to get young players in the lineup, as well as a way to help Arenado bounce back a bit and maybe overcome the ailments he's been dealing with as the year has gone on.

#4 - The Cardinals miss an opportunity to declutter their 40-man roster

The Cardinals have a fair bit of players on their 40-man roster right now that I do not think will have a role beyond 2025, and so it would be in their best interest to see if any other club would send a lottery ticket prospect or minor league depth.

Luken Baker, who the Cardinals had on their Opening Day roster as a DH option against left-handed pitching, just does not have a role in St. Louis long-term and could be someone that a rebuilding team would be interested in giving at-bats to in order to see what he is.

Michael Siani, who again, I don't see much of a role for in the future, especially with Nathan Church's presence, could be a fourth or fifth outfielder for a contending team, or maybe a rebuilding team would want to see if his bat can develop with consistent reps.

Jose Fermin has been really good in his very, very small sample size for St. Louis this year, but he was excellent in Triple-A this year as well, slashing .308/.431/.483, good for a 145 wRC+ in 55 games.

Matt Koperniak, who caught the eye of Cardinals fans during spring training, is 27 years old and also does not have a future with the club. After posting a 127 wRC+ in Memphis last year, Koperniak has been bad this year, slashing just .234/.292/.362 in 78 games.

I'm not trying to tell you these guys would fetch some incredible value, and even if they made one of these moves, it would likely go unnoticed by many fans, but there are deals made like this at deadlines all the time where players without a path toward an MLB debut are moved in a deal to a team that can create a spot for them.

It's worth trying to make a move with one of these players if the Cardinals can find a path to do so. They have a lot of prospects that need added to their 40-man roster this offseason, and you can now add Blaze Jordan to that list, who the Cardinals got in the Matz trade with Boston.