6 keys to the St. Louis Cardinals pulling off a dream trade deadline

With less than a week to go until the MLB trade deadline, the St. Louis Cardinals have plenty of moves they can make to improve their club for 2026 and beyond. How the Cardinals handle their assets could have major implications for a number of years.

While there is a ton of buzz around whom they could sell and even assets that they could repurpose to better fit Chaim Bloom's vision for the club moving forward, to me, the most interesting thing to think about is how a collection of decisions could come together to make for an excellent trade deadline.

With how the Cardinals are positioned right now, each move they make can have ripple effects and impact other decisions they make at the deadline. If the Cardinals are going to walk away from this trade deadline with high praise from the fanbase and industry, it will require a series of moves that are carefully plotted together rather than just accomplishing the low-hanging fruit moves.

Here are 6 keys to the Cardinals pulling off a dream trade deadline

1. Cash in on Ryan Helsley to the highest bidder

Even Ryan Helsley believes he is going to be traded, stating there's a "90% chance" in his mind that he's moved between now and the trade deadline. And that would be the right thing for the St. Louis Cardinals to do.

Helsley, an impending free agent, is the kind of player that many teams are going to want at this year's trade deadline, and with the Cardinals not being legit contenders this year, the value that Helsley can bring them in a trade should outweigh the potential of him helping them in August and September.

I know the Cardinals have weighed the idea of Helsley being a qualifying offer candidate, but at this rate, I don't see why they would offer him that. I don't think a team is going to want to sign him this offseason if he has a qualifying offer attached to him, so my guess is he'd accept that if offered to him, and the Cardinals should not be looking to pay Helsley $20 million next year.

Between now and July 31st, my guess is that multiple contenders will make strong pushes to acquire Helsley, and as sad as it will be to see one of the best closers the Cardinals have had in their franchise go, Helsley holds more value to them as a trade chip than closing down games for them.

Now, Helsley has repeatedly said that he would love to remain in St. Louis, and if he truly feels that way, and the club wants a reunion, they can do that in the offseason (much like Aroldis Chapman returned to the Yankees the offseason after being dealt to the Cubs at the 2016 trade deadline).

2. Move other impending free agents

While this would wipe the Cardinals of three of their five best relievers on the season, the Cardinals shouldn't stop at trading just Helsley from their bullpen; they need to move on from Phil Maton and Steven Matz, too.

Multiple trades have already happened this weekend as sellers begin to part ways with their assets and contenders start to upgrade. Maton and Matz are players that plenty of contenders are going to want to acquire, and while they'll likely not bring in as much as Helsley, they can still help strengthen the Cardinals' system.

The Cardinals' farm system is improving, but for as much as they need potential star talent in their system moving forward, they could also use more depth in their farm system to ensure they don't run into situations in the future where they don't rely on declining big leaguers out of fear that they don't have players to replace them.

Maton has been one of the best high-leverage relievers in all of baseball this year, posting a 2.35 ERA in 40 games. His 2.49 FIP and 30.4 K% are highly encouraging marks, and he ranks in the 86th percentile or better in ground ball percentage, extension, and K% while ranking in the 95th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%, and the 100th percentile in average exit velocity.

Maton is also immune to splits, allowing just a .608 OPS to lefties and .582 OPS to righties this year. This makes him an incredible target for contenders, knowing Maton can go up against any middle of the order and won't be in trouble, no matter the handedness of the hitter.

Matz has not been as dominant overall as Maton, but he has been a shutdown arm against lefties and has the ability to start games or go multiple innings if needed as well. If a club is acquiring Matz to be an option against lefties late in games, he's holding them to a .188/.226/.238 slash line on the year. That's his most valuable role this year, but I'm sure a contender would really enjoy being able to use him in other roles as well if needed.

In a market where relievers are in high demand, the Cardinals have Helsley, Maton, and Matz, who can all fill critical roles for any contender who believes they have a real shot in October. The Cardinals would be foolish not to capitalize on the value both carry right now.

3. Find a suitor for Nolan Arenado

The Cardinals have a really sticky situation on their hands with Nolan Arenado, and it's only gotten more complicated as the season has gone on. No, not because other clubs are interested, but quite the contrary. Arenado's on-field performance this year seems to have shot any chance contenders will want to make a move for him.

The New York Yankees just filled their need at third base with Ryan McMahon, and while the Los Angeles Dodgers could use another option at third base, there has been zero smoke of them being a suitor for Arenado anytime soon. The Houston Astros need a third baseman again, but do they want to retread Arenado? Would he accept a trade there now?

Arenado has taken another big step back offensively this year, posting a .239/.298/.375 slash line with 10 home runs in 92 games. His 87 wRC+ is down 15 points from last season, and there aren't many reasons to believe it is going to get any better. While Arenado is one of the best in baseball at making contact and not striking out, he's in the 40th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, bat speed, and chase%, as well as the bottom 18th percentile in average xwOBA, average exit velocity, barrel%, hard-hit%, launch angle sweet spot%, and chase%.

The FanGraphs "dollars" stat helps attribute market value to a player's performance, with every 1 fWAR being worth about $7.8 million on the open market. Arenado has been worth exactly 1 fWAR this season, but he's being paid $32 million between the Cardinals and the Rockies. Next year, he is owed $27 million, and in 2027, he is due $15 million.

If this regression continues, Arenado won't just be overpaid; he'll be an albatross contract. His elite defense is continuing to prop up his value, and if that even begins to fade a bit, things will get really tough for Arenado in terms of being a valuable player.

So, part of a dream trade deadline would be finding a suitor to take on as much of Arenado's contract as possible and get him off their books. The odds are his contract will only look worse from here, and that's not a conversation we are going to want the Cardinals to continue to have for the next two seasons.

On top of that, creating more space for other young bats is important for the future of this club. JJ Wetherholt is coming, and they have other young players who should be playing right now, so having Arenado on the roster only complicates the situation further.

4. Trade JoJo Romero at peak value

For those of you who thought I missed someone when talking about moving bullpen arms, you're right, I was saving JoJo Romero for a separate conversation. The Cardinals 100% should shop Romero at this deadline, and if a team is willing to pay the price, it's time to move him to the highest bidder.

The Cardinals had the opportunity to make a similar move involving Helsley at the 2024 trade deadline, but opted to hold onto him in an effort to push for the playoffs. They fell flat on their face after the deadline, and it makes you wonder that if they had an opportunity to do that over, if they would have capitalized on Helsley's year and a half of control and the high prices contenders were paying for Helsley.

If you haven't been paying attention to Romero's dominance as of late, get a load of these numbers!

• On the season, Romero has a sparkling 2.12 ERA, fourth-best among all left-handed relievers in all of baseball. His FIP (2.89), HR/9 rate, and GB% all rank in the top 12 as well.
• But wait, it gets even better. Since May 1st, Romero has allowed just one earned run, resulting in a mind-boggling 0.38 ERA in 27 games pitched, the second-best mark among all relievers in baseball and best among lefties since then. In fact, his 0.38 ERA is almost a full run better than the second-best left-handed reliever ERA over the last almost three months of baseball.

Uh, so yeah, any contender would go crazy over adding Romero if they have the opportunity to do so.

With another year of control remaining after this year, the Cardinals have the opportunity to cash in big time. Romero is a dominant high-leverage reliever who can shut down left-handed hitters, and when you get to October, that is a huge asset to have. Managers would love to be able to go to their bullpen when bats like Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, and other left-handed monsters come up to the plate, and feel confident that their guy can get them out of that spot. With the way Romero is pitching right now, he provides that kind of production.

Sure, it would be a tough loss for the Cardinals' bullpen, but relievers are volatile, and we've even seen that with Romero before. For as incredible as he's been this year, he could very easily begin to struggle again, whether that is this year or next year. Sell high, St. Louis, and bring back helpful pieces for the future.

5. Send Sonny Gray to a team that is desperate for starting pitching

The Cardinals are reportedly gauging trade interest in Sonny Gray right now, which likely means that Mozeliak's conversation with Gray resulted in the veteran right-hander giving Mozeliak his blessing to explore deals.

Mozeliak stated to media back in Colorado that he planned on asking players with no-trade clauses if they had interest in moving at the deadline, so I doubt they'd be listening to offers right now and reaching out to potential suitors if Gray did not want to, or at least wasn't open to, bring dealt away from St. Louis.

Gray is a very curious case this year. His 4.33 ERA screams mediocre, but his 3.02 FIP and 26.7 K% scream really good. For the most part this year, Gray has turned in really good performances, but there have been a few clunkers here and there, with two in a row in his last two starts that raised his ERA by a full run.

Honestly, I think contenders in search of a legit addition to their rotation would see Gray as that, rather than looking at his ERA and being scared off by him. But there is enough concern with his recent blow ups that could give them at least a bit of pause, coupled with the massive money still owed to him.

Gray is still owed the remainder of his $25 million 2025 salary, plus $35 million in 2026, with a $30 mutual option in 2027 that has a $5 million buyout. Gray doesn't come cheap financially, and while I'm sure the Cardinals would love to move the money, they should be open to eating some of his deal to fetch a better prospect in return.

If the Cardinals want to get rid of all of Gray's money, they won't get anything in return. But if they eat a chunk of that deal, I could see him netting them something of real value, especially with so many teams wanting to add a top-end starter, but there are not really any available.

At 35 years old, Gray just does not fit the Cardinals' timeline right now, and while he's a great player and one that St. Louis could have used for many years, now is not the time to pay him to pitch on their mound if another club wants to bring him in. It's a sad reality of where the Cardinals are at, but moving a lot of his money and grabbing good value in return makes too much sense.

6. Use positional logjams to acquire cost-controlled pitching and/or high-level prospects

Lastly, the Cardinals do not need to do this at this trade deadline, but if the opportunity presents itself to turn current big leaguers into cost-controlled pitching or high-level prospects, the Cardinals should be ready to make that move.

Ivan Herrera, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Nolan Gorman all impact the number of at-bats the other can get on this current roster, and with the Cardinals reportedly open to offers on any of those guys, that means the club isn't committed to them fully as core members, and why not turn one or more of them into something you need then?

On top of that, the Cardinals are facing really tough decisions this offseason with a variety of prospects needing to be added to their 40-man roster. The likes of Jimmy Crooks, Leonardo Bernal, Cooper Hjerpe, Nathan Church, Joshua Baez, Max Rajcic, and Brycen Mautz are all eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason if they are not placed on the 40-man roster. Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Sem Robberse already take up three of those spots as well, and none of JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, or Liam Doyle are on that yet and likely need spots cleared up for them within the next 12 months.

That's potentially 13 spots on the 40-man roster (33%) for players who have not made a big league debut, and some of those names won't even be ready to play in St. Louis by early 2026. Mozeliak has talked about creating flexibility for Bloom as he takes over, and having that much of his 40-man roster accounted for, along with young major leaguers, would make it difficult for Bloom to add to the roster freely this offseason.

Sure, some of those names can just be left unprotected going into the Rule 5 draft this offseason, but if the club knows they are going to do that and thinks there's a chance they are selected, moving that prospect in a trade now would make a lot of sense. And yes, players presently on the 40-man roster could be dealt this offseason instead, but the point is, if they know that issue is coming up fast, they might as well explore deals right now and see if one makes sense.

While the trade deadline may or may not see some of this decluttering happen, the offseason surely will. Whether it is in the form of just moving a few names for the sake of getting rid of logjams, or potentially Chaim Bloom and his regime deciding that no one is safe and wiping much of the slate clean, trades of young position players are coming. If the right deal is available now, Bloom shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.