3 Cardinals hot hitting performances to buy, 2 to sell a week into the 2025 season

The St. Louis Cardinals are on fire offensively to begin the 2025 season, with seemingly every player in their lineup producing at a high level during their first week of action.

This should be implied every time I write about performances this early in the year, but we are obviously discussing a very small sample size, so it would be unwise to draw a bunch of conclusions from this stretch of six games. But I do have some hitters that I think fans are safe to believe in based on both their early season performance and what past history has told us about those players, while there are a couple of names who have started off hot offensively that may not be able to keep it up.

Here are 3 Cardinals hitters whose hot starts to 2025 I am buying into and 2 that I am not ready to believe in yet.

Buy: Lars Nootbaar

I mean, come on, I've been one of the captains of the Lars Nootbaar hype train for quite some time, so you know I am buying into what I am seeing from the Cardinals' leadoff man so far.

When the Cardinals tasked Nootbaar with leading off games for them this year, they entrusted him to not only set the tone at the top of the lineup in the batter's box but also help light a fire underneath the rest of their lineup with the way he plays the game. So far, he's doing more than they could have even asked for or imagined from him.

Nootbaar is slashing .417/.533/.667 with two home runs, five runs batted in, and seven runs scored in his six starts so far, good for a 235 wRC+ and already accumulating 0.6 fWAR, tied for third in all of baseball. As per usual, Nootbaar's underlying metrics and Baseball Savant page are glowing with incredible results, but there are a few changes specifically that I believe are worth noting and can be a sign that the breakout I predicted he would have is truly happening.

First, Nootbaar is actually swinging the bat more often to begin 2025 than he has any other season. Nootbaar has been lauded for his ability to stay within the strike zone and not chase pitches, but that has also been paired with passivity at times, meaning he doesn't swing at enough pitches to do the kind of damage he is capable of.

In 2025, Nootbaar is swinging at 5.7% more pitchers outside of the strike zone and 2.6% more of the pitches thrown in the zone. He's been more selective earlier in counts, allowing him to get into hitters counts and go after pitches he likes, but he is swinging more often overall and making more contact with those pitches when he does swing. And while Nootbaar's chase rate has increased by 6.1% thus far, that's actually a good thing.

Nootbaar has always been one of the best hitters in baseball at hitting the ball hard and squaring it up when he does make contact; the problem was just not swinging often enough, and also missing a bit more often than you'd like to see. Now he's launching those balls left and right, and it's why you see such incredible batting average and slugging percentage numbers from him, all while still maintaining his ability to draw walks.

No, I do not believe Nootbaar is going to be a top 10 hitter in baseball this year like he's playing as right now, but I have believed for some time now that Nootbaar was bound to have a huge year, and I see an All-Star campaign in the cards for him this year. Nootbaar has shown the ability to be a 123 wRC+ hitter when he's on the field consistently, and I believe he could end up landing in the 130-140 wRC+ range in 2025 while playing well above-average defense in left field. That is a super valuable player and one that should even quiet down his loudest critics over the course of the season.

Sell: Nolan Gorman

Brant Brown worked tirelessly with Nolan Gorman all offseason to get him out of the funk he was in during the 2024 season and make good on that power potential he has. While I believe Gorman still has what it takes to get back to the player we saw in 2023 and be even better than that, the early-season results so are not something I will take too much stock in.

For as small of a sample size as most players have right now, Gorman's is even smaller, having just nine plate appearances so far in just two games for St. Louis. While he's been at the plate, Gorman has slashed .500/.556/1.000 with one home run, four runs scored, one walk, and just one strikeout to his name so far.

Gorman's 11.1% K% is a great start to his 2025 campaign, but I'll be shocked if he sees a dramatic improvement over his career average K% this year. Last year it was historically bad, sitting at 37.6% of his plate appearances ending in a strikeout, so even just getting that number back down into the 31% range would be an improvement for Gorman.

When it became clear that Nolan Arenado would be returning to the Cardinals this year, Gorman's role became less clear, and that became especially true when Alec Burleson was given the starting DH job over him. Gorman could very well win that role back over the course of the next few weeks and months, but he'll have to keep producing in order to do so.

One thing I find interesting about Gorman's profile so far has been his reduced bat speed, which may be a sign of him trying to slow things down and play within himself more, rather than trying to mash the ball every time he swings at it. There is a lot to like about what we have seen from Gorman so far, but I just think it's far too early to say we know he has turned a corner.

The reason why I am more hesitant to buy into Gorman than Nootbaar or other names on this list is because we know how deep the struggles were in 2024. Nootbaar, for example, is something we saw produce at a high level consistently, and there were just a few small changes (as well as health) needed to maximize his production. For Gorman, significant changes needed to be made, so I am going to want to see a lot more of a sample to know if they are truly working or if he regresses back into old habits.

I have not given up on Gorman, so don't read this as me saying he's going to be bad this year. I just think it's worth pumping the brakes on him for now, when in the case of Nootbaar, I am all-in on the kind of player we are seeing right now.

Buy: Ivan Herrera

Speaking of being all-in on a player because of what we've seen in the past and how he's built upon that in 2025, Ivan Herrera is an absolute stud at the plate, and the Cardinals better make sure he's in the lineup as much as possible to make room for his emerging bat.

In Herrera's brief stint with the Cardinals in 2023 (44 PA), he was 21% above league average at the plate and showed his bat belonged at the big league level. In 2024, Herrera only saw 259 plate appearances due to an injury as well as the Cardinals having him work on some things defensively at Triple-A, but wouldn't you know it, Herrera posted a 127 wRC+ in that larger sample size. Now as the 2025 season has gotten rolling, Herrera has been on fire at the plate, slashing .467/.529/1.200 while mashing three home runs during Wednesday's contest against the Angels.

Herrera is a great hitter; I don't really think that's a hot take at this point. In 342 plate appearances in his MLB career so far, he has a 129 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.374/.438. He mashed in the minor leagues as well, and he just needs to be in the lineup consistently to keep producing for this Cardinal offense.

Here's the problem, though — Herrera's arm behind the plate is such a liability that the Cardinals struggle to know how to deploy him and when to put him into or remove him from a game. I have some thoughts on that, but before I share some of my frustration about how manager Oliver Marmol has handled that, we have to acknowledge how bad it has been.

Some fans want to gloss over it and make Marmol out to be the bad guy for using Pedro Pages late in games, but Herrera's caught stealing above average ranks in the fifth percentile in all of baseball, his arm strength ranks 35th among the 44 catchers who've played so far this year, and his pop time is below-average as well. It's bad.

But Herrera has made significant strides in other areas defensively. So far, Herrera ranks in the top 20% of catchers in both framing and blocking, two of the most important aspects of catching. These are frankly more important than arm strength, but when his arm is as bad as it is, it becomes a liability.

Look, I actually like Marmol using Pages late in the game in place of Herrera while he's figuring out his arm, but there's a balance to it. During Monday's game against the Angels, I felt like Herrera was pulled too early from that game, so when the Cardinals lost the lead, Herrera's bat was not in there to help them regain it. And then during Tuesday's comeback attempt, Marmol did not bring in Herrera to pinch hit for Pages in the seventh inning when they were trailing or in the ninth inning when the game was tied, and that's just foolish to me.

Herrera's bat is legit, and it needs to be in the lineup as often as possible and DH opportunities should come Herrera's way when he's not starting at catcher. Now that he's beginning to tap into more of that pull-side power, he's become even more dangerous at the plate, and that power may be key for him improving his splits against left-handed pitching that have lagged behind his splits against righties so far in his career.

Sell: Pedro Pages

In my opinion, Pedro Pages is a perfectly capable backup catcher at the Major League level. He may even be able to produce like a low-end starter if we are being more optimistic. But because of that, I do not believe Pages should cut into Herrera's playing time any more than he has to, even as his bat has been hot to begin the year.

In his 10 plate appearances, Pages has slashed .400/.400/.800 with a home run and three runs batted in so far. His blocking and framing have actually lagged behind Herrera's significantly so far, but his arm has been so much better and allowed the Cardinals to manage the run game better when he is in there.

I like Pages as that late-inning option to relieve Herrera until he can figure out how to manage the run game better, but outside of being available to give Herrera some rest and starting in his place when needed, I don't think Pages' role should expand further than that.

The Cardinals, specifically Marmol, seem to to believe Pages' bat is better than I and many others do. In 218 plate appearances last year, Pages posted an 83 wRC+, but he came through in some clutch situations that seemed to inflate people's belief in him at the plate.

When the Cardinals have as talented of a catcher as they do in Herrera, Pages should not cut into his playing time beyond what is necessary. I get that his bat has played in a small sample size, but that's not enough to justify a 50/50 split or even something close to that. The Cardinals should push Herrera to catch as often as he can while still mashing, even with his arm deficiencies.

I do wonder if some of this "late-game subbing" could end up helping Herrera start more games over the course of a season. I know it's not a ton, but if he's semi-consistently being lifted in the eighth, ninth, and sometimes even seventh innings for Pages, that is less mileage on his legs and could keep him fresher throughout the season. But I'd also like to see Marmol be more aggressive with getting Herrera into games when the club is down and Pages is starting.

During the days of Yadier Molina, the Cardinals' backup catcher was almost always a major liability. Pages is not that, but he's also not good enough to take away playing time from Herrera beyond what is needed.

Buy: Victor Scott II

Coming into spring training, I was someone who felt like the Cardinals should be very patient with Victor Scott II, and I believed it would likely be best for him to start the year with Memphis to make sure he's ready whenever he's finally called upon to start again in St. Louis.

After a really strong spring training, I still thought it made sense to start him in Triple-A, but I totally understood if the Cardinals believed he was ready to go this year. My one caveat with Scott was that if the Cardinals kept him in St. Louis, he would have to start every day. Making him the backup center fielder to Michael Siani or splitting their playing time up would be a terrible decision in my eyes.

So far, the Cardinals have stuck with Scott as their everyday center fielder, starting him in all six games and only moving him to a corner outfield spot when Siani comes in as a defensive replacement for Jordan Walker. And while things were really bad last year offensively for Scott during his first stint with St. Louis, Scott has been off to a strong start in 2025.

In 26 plate appearances, Scott is slashing .348/.385/.522 with one home run, one double, two walks, and five runs batted in while stealing four bases and scoring four runs as well. He's putting the ball in play far more often as well (posting a 19.2% strikeout rate as compared to a 27.1% strikeout rate in 2025).

Something so many of us have noticed with the 2025 Cardinals so far compared to last year's team is the comfort in their approach. As a team, the Cardinals are seeing the sixth most pitches per plate appearance in all of baseball, and Scott is actually 76th among all hitters in baseball so far in pitches per at-bat. He's forcing opposing pitches to give him pitches to hit, he's hitting the ball with authority when he gets the pitch he likes, and he's finding ways to slap the ball for a single, lay down a bunt for a hit, or take a walk when pitchers are doing a good job of not making mistakes.

Scott is a real weapon for the Cardinals at the bottom of their order, and whenever he has been on base, he makes things really difficult for the opposing pitchers. Last year, Scott only managed to steal five bags for St. Louis since he really never got on base enough to make pitchers work. This year, he's got those four stolen bases in just six games, and if he can keep getting on base, he will be among the league leaders in steals come season's end.

Scott doesn't need to be a prolific hitter to be valuable in 2025, but he really does look like he's made significant strides in that area. I don't think it's a hot take to say we should not "buy" into Scott being a 50% above league-average hitter this year, but I think we can buy into Scott being a much better hitter than he was last year when he was 60% below league-average.