10 Cardinals who can provide more value to the team in 2025 with one adjustment

Looking back at the last two years of baseball for the St. Louis Cardinals, they've left a lot to be desired on the field. 2023 felt like a year where anything that could go wrong, did go wrong for the club. While the pitching staff rebounded in 2024, the lineup plummeted any chances of a postseason berth.

Maybe the Cardinals are due for more positive outcomes in 2025? Could be wishful thinking, but looking around the roster, there are plenty of players who have the capacity to add more value to this team with necessary adjustments in 2025.

Here are 10 Cardinals who could provide the team more value in 2025 with one key adjustment to their game.

Masyn Winn: Stealing more bases

It is really hard to be upset about Masyn Winn's rookie campaign, as any qualms would surely be nitpicking what was a very encouraging season from their star shortstop.

And yet, Winn knows that in order to make good on the expectations he wants set for himself, he needs to keep improving, and while sophomore slumps are a very real thing, Winn has his eyes set on the basepaths for his area of improvement in 2025.

After stealing just 11 bases on 16 attempts last year, Winn is determined to be in the 30-40 stolen base range in 2025. With his plus speed and the number of times he was on base last year (201), that feels like a worthy goal for Winn as he enters his second full season.

The Cardinals ranked 22nd in stolen bases as a team last year (91) and would jump into the middle of the pack if Winn just added those 20-30 extra bags. Better health from Lars Nootbaar could add a few bags as well, and if Victor Scott II can carve out an everyday role and get on base, we all know he can account for 50 or more himself.

The point is that if Winn can swipe second or third more often, that could account for some extra runs throughout the year and even be the difference in a couple of wins or losses. Will it dramatically improve the club's record? No, but it sure can have a positive impact, and the more of those that happen from that list, the higher the upside this team has.

Lars Nootbaar: Swinging the bat more often

Yes, we all know by now that Nootbaar needs to stay healthy. That's low-hanging fruit. But I wanted to talk about something in his profile that will dictate whether he'll be good or great as a hitter at the plate.

I have been one to praise Lars Nootbaar for displaying incredible patience at the plate while also being among the best in baseball at hitting the ball extremely hard. MLB Network shined more light onto that this offseason when they posted this graphic of Nootbaar being one of five players in MLB last year to be in the 90th percentile or higher in both hard-hit% and chase%.

And yet, what if I told you that Nootbaar's patience may actually hurt his ability to take the next step forward as a hitter?

Nate Schwartz of Pitcher List joined me on a recent episode of Dealin' the Cards to discuss this dilemma among a variety of other things that different Cardinals could improve on. (I highly recommend checking that episode out at this link or the embedded video below.)

Schwartz published a story on Pitcher List this past week following our episode, diving into Nootbaar's swing decisions at an even deeper level. He pointed out that while Nootbaar is a lot like Juan Soto in terms of his swing rate and chase rate, he watches 7.4% more pitches in the zone than Soto does, allowing pitchers to attack him more aggressively and, in turn, putting Nootbaar in more defensive counts.

Nootbaar has a well-below-average swing rate when the count is even or he is ahead in it, and yet, that's when he does the most damage. Those counts are the times to get the most aggressive. Nootbaar doesn't need to start swinging at everything; he just needs to be more aggressive when the count is in his favor.

This isn't just a theory that Schwartz had suggested (and he's not the only one to point this out either); this is something that has been proven to help Nootbaar at the plate. When Nootbaar is more aggressive, he actually does see better results. Nootbaar can become a true impact bat in this league by allowing his top-end exit velocities to do damage by swinging when the count is in his favor, and then being patient and using his eye to his advantage when he's behind.

David Adler of MLB.com found that Nootbaar was top 10 in all of baseball last year in "blast rate," meaning he had a high bat speed and squared up the baseball on the sweet spot of the bat more often than just about anyone. If that sounds like a bunch of word salad to you, the average slugging percentage on such swings last year was 1.184 SLG, so yeah, that's a good swing!

But Adler did find some numbers that give even more credence to the argument that Schwartz, I, and others are making. Although Nootbaar was tied with Shohei Ohtani in blast rate last year, Ohtani had 1,253 competitive swings last year to Nootbaar's 539. That is a difference of 67%! Some of that is due to Nootbaar missing games, but it also goes to show you that Nootbaar's passiveness does prevent him from tapping into the damage he can do.

Nootbaar's floor as a hitter will remain high because of his ability to manage the strike zone and do damage with the baseball, but if he wants to maximize his ceiling, he'll need to take the bat off his shoulders more in 2025.

Sonny Gray: Getting back to feeling comfortable on the road

Sonny Gray's first season with the Cardinals was a bit disappointing compared to the expectations that many had for him. After finishing second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023 on the back of his 2.70 ERA in 32 starts, Gray followed that up with a 3.84 ERA in 28 starts for St. Louis.

Beneath the hood though, there were actually a lot of encouraging signs for Gray. He actually saw improvements in his chase%, whiff%, BB%, and K%, which ended up being one of the best in baseball, at 30.3%. Gray's 2024 season resulted in a 3.12 FIP and 2.82 xFIP, and he was still worth 3.8 fWAR in this "down" season.

While I'll get to the spike in his home run rate in a moment, the real oddity in my eyes for Gray last season was the huge difference in his home/road splits. For his career, Gray is actually better on the road (3.39 ERA) and he has been at home (3.61 ERA). In 2024, Gray was excellent at Busch Stadium (2.79 ERA), but he unraveled in road starts, posting a 5.20 ERA in 72.2 innings of work.

What gives? Why such a stark difference last year? That part I cannot answer, but I do want to point out another oddity in Gray's road performance last year — Gray gave up almost half of his total home runs in just three of his 28 starts last year.

You'll probably remember these three disaster starts, all of which happened on the road. On May 9th, Gray gave up three bombs to the Brewers in Milwaukee. On July 20th, Gray surrendered four big flies to the Braves in Atlanta. And for good measure, on August 12th, Gray allowed three home runs to the Reds in Cincinnati.

Want to know something even more odd? In his career, Gray has only allowed three or more home runs in a game five other times. So in 12 big league seasons and 298 starts, Gray has had just eight games where he gave up three or more home runs, and three of those happened during the summer of 2024.

Could this be a sign of age-related decline? Perhaps. But considering Gray looked even better than his Cy Young-contending self in so many other ways last year, it feels more like a case of bad luck than a major red flag. Some pitchers are more prone to giving up home runs, but among the 307 qualified starting pitchers since 2013 when Gray debuted, he actually ranks 28th in lowest HR/9, the 91st percentile. Even for something like home run rates, which are unpredictable and have a lot of luck baked into them, Gray tends to be one of the best at limiting them, not allowing them.

I'm going to bet on Gray figuring out how to be effective on the road again, and sure, he'll have some bad starts again next year, but I don't think he's going to see his ERA balloon once again by a few games where opposing hitters turn the game into a home run derby.

Willson Contreras: Availability

When it came to Nootbaar, there was something specific in his profile at the plate that I thought was worth highlighting over the injury history. But when it comes to Willson Contreras, the Cardinals don't need him to do more at the plate; they need him to be at the plate more often.

Since becoming a Cardinal, Contreras ranks in the top 21 hitters in baseball in wRC+, wOBA, and OBP while finishing top 40 in SLG as well. Last season, Contreras posted a 140 wRC+, which would have ranked 14th in baseball had he qualified for leaderboards. The only issue was that Contreras appeared in just 84 games due to two significant injuries.

The first of which happened behind the plate back in May, when J.D. Martinez was positioned outside the back of the batter's box and hit Contreras' receiving hand with his bat, forcing Contreras to miss six and a half weeks of baseball with a forearm fracture. And then on August 21st, Contreras was drilled in the hand by a fastball, fracturing his finger and ending his season.

The potential of getting hit by a pitch won't go away with a move to first base, but other potential unnecessary injuries or wear and tear will. The catching position is easily the most taxing in all of baseball, and it is why it is so rare to find bats that produce as Contreras did behind the plate.

Now Contreras will be an everyday first baseman and DH, and assuming some other injury does not happen to him, he'll be able to suit up for the Cardinals 150+ times in 2025, almost double the amount of games that he played in 2024.

The Cardinals need Contreras' bat. He is their best hitter right now and a true middle-of-the-order presence. I could make the argument that playing first base or DHing instead of catching could make him an even better hitter in 2025, but that would just be icing on the cake. The main thing for Contreras is health in 2025 because we already know he is one of the best bats in baseball when he is right.

Matthew Liberatore: Full-time usage in bullpen

If it were up to Matthew Liberatore, he would be in the Cardinals rotation this year. He aspires to be a starter still, and frankly, the Cardinals had hoped he would be a significant part of their rotation by now. But here we are, another spring, and another attempt at the same song and dance.

On one hand, I understand why both sides still desire to find a way to make this work. The 6'5 lefty looks like a front-line starter, and he has many of the intangibles of a starter, but lacks, well, the fruit of a starter.

If the Cardinals had actually fully committed to a year of opportunity for young talent, then sure, maybe it would be worth running Liberatore out there one more time. To be fair, Chaim Bloom was the one who drafted Liberatore in the first round when he was with the Rays, so maybe this new regime feels like they have the tools to unlock Liberatore's potential. But can the Cardinals really justify having Liberatore make starts this year over Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby, or eventually names like Tink Hence or Cooper Hjerpe?

Last year, the Cardinals and Liberatore found a real formula for success out of the bullpen. Liberatore continues to run into trouble in long spurts due to an inability to maintain fastball velocity and shape, which then opposing pitchers tee off on him. Last year, Liberatore posted a 6.35 ERA in his small sample size in the rotation, and during his 101.1 innings as a starter in his MLB career, it's an ugly 5.86 ERA overall.

But as a reliever last year, Liberatore was much sharper and far more dynamic, posting a 3.69 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .292 wOBA. It's not a failure to become a bullpen arm in this league, especially when you're someone like Liberatore who could become very impactful in that role.

The one thing that gives me pause about my plea to stay in the bullpen is how the early camp results look for Liberatore. No, not the traditional stats. I'm talking about how his stuff has played, which at the moment, he's throwing his fastball at a slightly above-average proStuff+ grade, while his slider looks elite and curveball/cutter are well above average.

There's a world where Liberatore could drop his fastball usage significantly and rely heavily on his slider, curveball, and cutter in a starter role. But even so, I could see him finding far more success as a reliever with those pitches. And just as a reminder, the two-inning spurts he is having in camp so far are much more like his bullpen role than what a starter's workload is.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but if Liberatore wants to provide more value this year and for his career as a whole, I think homing in on being the best possible high-leverage reliever he can be would be the way to go.

Brendan Donovan: Doubling down on his refined approach

I had the honor of interviewing Brendan Donovan on the Dealin' the Cards podcast this past Sunday, and it was an awesome conversation. I don't just say that because that's the nice thing to say when someone comes on your podcast — Donovan was so insightful and provided incredible depth with the answers he gave about his game, this Cardinals team, and his personal life.

Prior to the 2024 season, I asked Donovan at Winter Warm-Up about some changes he made to his approach in May of 2023 that unlocked his performance at the plate. At that time, Donovan mentioned that he had to adjust to how pitchers attacked him in his second year. As they got more aggressive with him, he saw that he needed to be aggressive early in counts, and it led to a massive surge at the plate, where Donovan posted a 144 wRC+ over a 54-game stretch.

I asked Donovan on the podcast more about that, as even though he ranks 15th in all of baseball in on-base percentage since his debut, his OBP has dropped year over year as the SLG has increased. I wanted to know more about how he balances trying to do more damage at the plate while not losing his elite trait of being an on-base machine, and his answer was once again very insightful.

Donovan mentioned how he's studied just how many pitches are thrown out of the zone, and it influenced his approach of remaining patient at the plate and forcing pitchers to come to him. Well, as major league pitchers began to throw the ball in the zone more often to him, he had to counteract that in two ways. First, by being aggressive early in the count and in hitter-friendly counts in order to do damage on pitches he can hit. But the second is actually knowing how to do damage on those pitches by working on swing decisions in his preparation.

When Donovan is right at the plate, he forces pitchers to give him pitches to hit in the zone by spitting on pitches outside the zone and knowing how to maximize damage when it is in the zone. Then pitchers have to pick their poison — do they try and get Donovan on the edges of the zone, knowing they have to be perfect or they'll walk him, or do they attack him in the zone to try and get in a pitcher's count and hope he expands his zone? The problem with that, though, is Donovan knows how to get doubles and home runs. No, he's not Willson Contreras out there, but he does enough damage to make pitchers think twice.

So for Donovan to provide even more value for the Cardinals in 2025, it looks like him striking that balance of getting on base with the best in baseball while still doing damage when the pitch presents itself.

Let's not forget that during Donovan's rookie year in 2022, he posted a 127 wRC+, tied for 39th in all of baseball. That was in a year where Donovan's on-base percentage was .394 (seventh in all of baseball) but his slugging percentage was just .379. In 2023, that slugging percentage jumped to .422, and .417 in 2024. If Donovan can slug in that range in 2025 while boosting his on-base percentage back into the .390+ range, the Cardinals have a very dynamic hitter on their hands.

Donovan has shown he can do it before; now it's time to just put all of the pieces together and prove it over a full season.

Ivan Herrera: Improved arm strength

Not enough people realize that statically speaking, Ivan Herrera was the Cardinals' second most productive hitter in 2024. That's not just because other players struggled. Herrera excelled at the plate in his 259 plate appearances, posting a .301/.372/.428 slash line with a 127 wRC+.

Wait, so how come he only had 259 plate appearances then? Surely he was injured most of the season? Well, not quite.

Yes, Herrera missed time due to injury, but the Cardinals' concerns with his ability behind the plate kept him from being at the plate as often as he should have been. And that is a real problem.

Herrera ranked in the 14th percentile among MLB catchers in 2024 in caught stealing above average and in the 27th percentile in pop time. His arm strength also ranked in the 28th percentile among the 66 catchers who qualified in 2024.

There is some debate over how good of a receiver and game-caller Herrera is, but at least from a framing and blocking perspective, he ranks above average. It's clear that the Cardinals (and perhaps their pitching staff) thought Herrera had room to improve in his game prep, and with the way they gravitated toward Pedro Pages in that regard, it caused them to not play Herrera as often as they should have.

Now, as spring training continues on, Herrera will have to prove to the Cardinals that he should be their primary catcher. There will always be a bit of a split in today's game, but if Herrera finds himself playing fewer games than Pages, that is a real problem for this club.

Again, some of that is on Herrera to improve behind the dish, but the Cardinals also need to see this as an opportunity to develop their young catcher in Herrera, who has an excellent bat. Sure, DH days can do that too, but Herrera should catch as much as he can handle so they can maximize their offense each day.

Nolan Gorman: Handle the high fastball

Going into the 2024 season, there was zero doubt that Nolan Gorman was a big part of the Cardinals' future. Fresh off posting a 118 wRC+ with 27 home runs in just 119 games, the questions we were asking about Gorman related to how high his ceiling could be, not his place on the roster.

Well, here we are, a year later, and after going 0-12 with seven strikeouts in his first taste of spring training action, there is a portion of the fanbase that has fully given up on Gorman and his potential as a player.

Personally, I am not ready to do that, but I do agree that Gorman should be on a shorter leash than someone like Jordan Walker this year. Gorman has had 1179 plate appearances at the big league level. That is a real opportunity. I just think people need to remember that as a rookie in 2022, he was above average at the plate, and in 2023, he was well above average with many months of elite play to offset the bad.

2024 was all bad though, and a major reason why was his inability to hit the fastball. He teed off on the pitch in 2023, but last season, pitchers attacked him with heaters fearlessly and Gorman floundered at the plate. His numbers against the fastball high in the zone were horrific, and he just has to find a way to manage that pitch better so he can do damage more often in 2025.

Should Gorman be able to find comfort in his reworked swing, the 30+ home run potential is something that would do wonders for this lineup. But a little bit of patience is required. I know many of you are sick of that phrase, but it is true when it comes to Gorman. If he is floundering in June, we can circle back on this.

Jordan Walker: Trust in Brant Brown

It's hard not to notice a major difference in how Jordan Walker has approached talking about hitting this year compared to years past. In 2023 and especially 2024, Walker seemed frustrated and over the narrative. Hey, I don't blame him. Just a few years removed from high school and he's having to navigate big league pitching with every fan and media member watching closely and critiquing his game.

But this year, Walker seems excited, at times almost giddy, to talk about what he has been working on and how he may have found himself again as a hitter. There is a reason Walker was one of the top prospects in baseball for a stretch — because the dude could hit. A mixture of going back to the basics this winter along with changes based on suggestions from new hitting coach Brant Brown is leading Walker toward what will hopefully be a massive bounce-back year.

Brown has been getting glowing reviews from Cardinals players, coaches, and front-office members thus far. He seems to know how to meet players where they are at, speak their language, and uniquely equip them based on their own needs as players. It's not a one-size-fits-all program, but even within that customization, Brown is serious about guys putting in work. He wants them to enjoy and fall in love with hitting, but he's not up for meaningless work either.

For all of the tinkering and changes the Cardinals have tried to make with Walker, and his own resistance at time to necessary adjustments, it's good to get a new, fresh voice from outside the organization to get new eyes on Walker. Brown came with a glowing endorsement from Albert Pujols as well, which certainly doesn't hurt.

For Walker this year, yes he needs to learn to drive the ball in the air more. Yes he needs to get better defensively. That low and away slider/sweeper that he cannot hit needs to be worked on. But overall, he just needs to keep listening to Brant Brown, trust the process, regain his feel for his bat, and let the results come as they do.

Nolan Arenado: Regain bat speed

When the Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado, he was a superhuman, otherworldly third baseman who was a future Hall of Famer because of his historic defensive play and elite offensive output. Well, Arenado has looked a lot more human as a Cardinal at the plate, and a large part of that has to do with the decline in his strength and bat speed.

During Arenado's best season as a Cardinal (2022), he gained 2.4 MPH on his average bat speed but saw those numbers decline again in both 2023 and 2024. Jeff Passan captured this alarming number last season, and it was clearly something Arenado worked hard to improve all offseason.

The early returns on that investment are actually really promising. From 2021-2023, Arenado's max exit velocity would fall within the range of 110.3 MPH to 111.4 MPH. In 2024, the hardest ball Arenado hit was 107.5 MPH, but Arenado has already surpassed that exit velocity during the first week of spring training games.

Arenado was basically a league average hitter in 2023 and 2024. Not a bad player by any means, but far from the guy the Cardinals thought he would be. Arenado has had no trouble putting the bat on the ball since 2022, but the power has been in decline, and his sub.-400 SLG in 2024 won't cut it in 2025 if he wants to bounce back.

Should Arenado regain that power stroke in 2025 and get back to 25-30 home runs and 25+ doubles, he'll be a major asset for this lineup. Whether that means he's playing for the Cardinals all year long would be a real question, but it is surely in the best interest of both sides that he regains that production.