St. Louis Cardinals best/worst case 2016: Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter has shown flashes of MVP potential in his time with the St. Louis Cardinals. Is 2016 the year he puts it all together?

We saw Matt Carpenter in the leadoff spot earlier this afternoon, where he had an infield single in a 1-2 performance. We’re likely to see him in other spots in the lineup this spring, namely 2nd, 3rd and 5th, in my opinion.

While I would love to see Carpenter’s run producing pontential utilized in a run-producing spot in the Cardinals lineup, I don’t see him anywhere other than leadoff when the real games roll around.

Part of that is how fantastic Carpenter truly is in the lead off spot. The tone that he sets for that Cardinal lineup when leading off is unmatched in baseball. With a healthy Matt Holliday, Matt Adams and hopefully Brandon Moss (knock on wood for all three), the Cardinals SHOULD see a nice uptick in offense this year.

The other part of the Carpenter-leadoff situation is that there really isn’t an ideal fit for the spot elsewhere on the Cardinals roster. Yes, Tommy Pham and Kolten Wong seem like decent candidates for the job. But, Wong would have to have a major improvement on his .321 OBP from a season ago, and Pham is susceptible to the strikeout, as he whiffed 41 times in 153 at-bats last year.

Sure, if one of those guys (or anybody else) proves capable of handling leadoff duties, see what Carpenter could do in extended opportunities in the middle of the order. He’s got the potential to be a .300, 25 HR, 90 RBI guy wherever he hits. But, if the Cardinals could get him comfortable in the middle of the order, we could see a really special season out of #13 in 2016.

Next: Carpenter puts together a complete 2016

Best Case: “Your 2016 National League Most Valuable Player, Matt Carpenter”

Matt Carpenter had a strange season in 2015. He came out of the gates scorching hot en route to a .372/.438/.651 slash line in the first month of the year. Carpenter turned in a solid May as well, hitting five home runs with a .364 OBP.

Then June hit, and Carpenter slashed just .190/.337/.241 without a single long ball in the entire month. After that, Carpenter turned it back on and hit 20 home runs in the final three months of the season to finish with a team-leading 28.

What would Carpenter’s final stat line have looked like had he kept his slash line at least around his career average and hit three or four home runs? The answer, it would have been MVP worthy.

As it stands, Carpenter still finished 12th in NL MVP voting last year, and I think that he is a dark horse candidate for the award in 2016.

In Carpenter’s best-case 2016, he does what he did in 2015, without the June struggles thrown in there. A .300/.390/.475 slash line is entirely realistic for Carpenter this year.

If somebody is able to handle leadoff duties and Carpenter gets comfortable in the middle of the order, he could very well drive in 100 runs.

Matt Carpenter best-case stat line: .300/.390/.475 with 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 100 runs scored and 45 doubles.

Next: Carp can't get comfy, takes a step backwards

Worst Case: Carpenter can’t get comfortable anywhere in the order, see’s dip in power and OBP

The worst thing that could happen in 2016 would involve Mike Matheny forcing Carpenter into a middle of the order position for too long, much to the detriment of Carpenter and the Cardinals offense.

Say that out of stubbornness, Matheny moves Carpenter to the third spot in the order and is unwilling to give up on the idea, even though it is clear that it is hurting the club.

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Hypothetically, that move ends with Carpenter losing all feel for the leadoff spot once he moves back. He starts flying open against left-handed pitching, loses his stellar plate discipline, and takes a major hit to his power production and on-base abilities.

Without their star producing at the top of the lineup, the Cards’ offense goes into free fall mode, and everybody in the lineup follows suit with Carpenter’s struggles.

I’m having an extremely hard time picturing anything like that happening, but you have to come up with some kind of doom-ish scenario, right?

Next: My Prediction: A Complete Season from #13

My Prediction: The most complete season from Carpenter yet, an All-Star appearance, well-deserved national recognition

Matt Carpenter really flies under the radar when it comes to national recognition. Because he isn’t a “look at me” kind of guy, because he doesn’t do anything particularly flashy, he isn’t an intriguing topic for national media outlets to cover.

That is exactly what makes me love Matt Carpenter as a baseball player. He epitomizes what it means to be a gamer, and he just does things the absolute right way, each and every day. While some of the league’s big name superstars seem more interested in promoting themselves and their individual performance, Matt Carpenter is all-in on the success of the St. Louis Cardinals.

There is no way of stating how much he means to the Cardinals ball club. He drove the bus for that Cardinals offense a season ago, and he threw the entire unit on his back in August and September.

With some of that load taken off of his shoulders with the return of Matt Holliday as well as potential bounce back campaigns from Matt Adams and Brandon Moss, I like Carpenter to have a big, big year with the Cardinals in 2016.

I’m not sure he hits 28 home runs again, but I think that 20 is a realistic expectation, especially out of the lead off spot. If Holliday, Adams, Moss and others produce behind him, he won’t have to concern himself with trying to hit home runs or finding a way to produce offense for a lackluster unit.

I look for Carpenter to reign things back in a bit this year. In turn I see a spike in his batting average and on base percentage. I’m looking for a batting average around .290 and an OBP anywhere from .370-.390.

I think that we will see Matheny and the Cardinals experiment with Carpenter in the middle of the order at times early this year. But, ultimately, Carpenter is a leadoff hitter. He swings the bat the best in that spot, he’s the most comfortable there, and he gives you a pretty imposing figure to start off ballgames, when you consider how he can work a 10-pitch walk just as easily as he can shoot a 400 foot home run to center field.

My 2016 stat line for Carpenter is as follows: .292/.384/.478 with 21 home runs, 77 RBI, 102 runs scored, and 40 doubles.

Next: St. Louis Cardinals best/worst case: Jaime Garcia

I like Carpenter to make his third All Star Game appearance, and I think that a top-five MVP finish is a real possibility, depending on what happens around the rest of the National League.