St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case: Jaime Garcia

Josh Brown

Oct 10, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jaime Garcia (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning in game two of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jaime Garcia needs a healthy season to stay with the Redbirds beyond 2016. What are the best/worst case scenarios for the lefty?

Throughout his career, Jaime Garcia has often been described as having the filthiest stuff on the St. Louis Cardinals’ pitching staff. Garcia’s arsenal of pitches, including a fastball and cutter with nasty movement, a strong curveball, and a drop off changeup, definitely back up those claims. But, the big question for the left-hander has always been whether or not he can stay healthy.

As we continue our best/worst case series, I want to examine Garcia’s outlook for 2016. It’s a defining season for the lefty.

While the Cardinals did pick up his $11.5M option for 2016, Garcia will have to prove that he can not only be filthy, but also stay healthy for a full season if he wants to continue his career with St. Louis. If Garcia can do that, he could be 12 million dollars richer come 2017 if the Cardinals choose to pick up that option. More than that, it could land him a long-term deal with the Cardinals.

Will Garcia stay healthy this season and start 30 games? Was last season an accurate indicator of how dominant Garcia can be in the National League? All of these questions and more will, of course, be answered as the season progresses.

But for now, what is the best case scenario for Garcia in 2016?

Next: Best Case: Garcia Stays Healthy

Sep 5, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jaime Garcia (54) celebrates getting Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison (not pictured) to ground into a force out to end the seventh inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case: Garcia stays healthy and dominates in 2016

The best case scenario for Garcia is simple — that he stays healthy. Of course, this is easier said than done for the 29-year old.

Still, Garcia gave a glimmer of hope last season when he started 20 games (something he hadn’t done since 2012). Garcia also proved that when he is healthy he can still baffle hitters on the mound. The lefty won 10 games for St. Louis while compiling a dazzling 2.43 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.05 WHIP and a 163 ERA+ over 129.2 IP in 2015.

As I said, the performance was good enough to get Garcia another year in St. Louis as the club picked up his option. But, the best case scenario for the left-hander is to keep a clean bill of health all of 2016. I’m talking 30 starts and 200 IP this year, which would be the first time Garcia has reached 200 IP in a season in his career.

It’s probably unrealistic to think that Garcia can keep up last year’s numbers over the course of an entire season in 2016. But if he somehow does, the lefty would almost be assured an extension with the Cardinals.

Garcia would need to stay healthy and dominate to the tune of 15 plus wins, a sub 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the season. If he does that, he should be in good shape moving forward with the Cardinals. Even if the Cardinals elected not to sign Garcia to another extension, those kind of numbers and a full season of staying healthy would likely land Garcia a pretty hefty deal in free agency. So, he will be doing all he can to have a dominant, healthy season.

But, what if Garcia doesn’t stay healthy? What if he’s plagued by injuries once again in 2016?

Next: Worst Case: Lost On the Disabled List

Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

Worst Case: Garcia spends most of 2016 on the DL, Cardinals decline his 2017 option

Imagine, Garcia comes into Spring Training and all signs point to him being healthy and ready to go. All of a sudden, poof — he’s injured again.

Initial diagnosis says Garcia will be out for only two to four weeks. But that turns into two months. Garcia comes back and makes about five starts before another injury creeps up and he’s shelved on the disabled list for the rest of the season.

Have you heard this story before? It’s a depressing scenario to think about, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility — not with Garcia.

Since 2012, Garcia has averaged just 14 starts and 89.1 IP per season. Not exactly the most durable numbers for a starting pitcher. I’ll give Garcia credit, though. The 29-year old has managed to work his way back from thoracic outlet syndrome and a surgery that involved the removal of a rib. Former Cardinal great Chris Carpenter had the same injury and surgery and couldn’t manage a comeback, as he retired at the end of the 2013 season.

Carpenter didn’t quite have age on his side like Garcia does, but we all know how tough the former ace was. So, to see Garcia push through the surgery and come back the way that he did last season is pretty remarkable.

Another injury plagued season would likely be the final nail in the coffin for Garcia’s career in St. Louis, though. It simply wouldn’t make any sense for the Cardinals to pick up his $12M option for 2017 or anything beyond that. Not to mention, the Cardinals have young starters like Alex Reyes, Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales and more waiting for a shot in the Majors. At that point, the Cardinals would certainly be looking to give those young guys their chance while sending Garcia off to brave the waters of free agency.

So, what is my prediction for Garcia this season?

Next: My Prediction for Garcia

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

My Prediction: Garcia pitches well, stays one more year in St. Louis

I believe Garcia will pitch well enough in 2016 to get his option picked up by the Cardinals for the 2017 season.

I don’t foresee a fully healthy season from the lefty, though. An injury (even a minor one) is bound to spring up during the season, given his track record. Instead, I see Garcia managing about 25 starts this season with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 177 IP — good enough for 13 wins.