Who should hit leadoff for the St. Louis Cardinals? The answer should be obvious

What a team looks for in its leadoff hitter has changed through the decades. What was once a spot held by a speedy player with a penchant for stealing bases has morphed into a player who can run up counts, get on base, and be a table setter. For some teams, using players who are power batters like Kyle Schwarber for the Philadelphia Phillies is the preferred route for the leadoff hitter.

In 2024, the teams with the best wRC+ from the leadoff spot included the Los Angeles Dodgers (172), Baltimore Orioles (156), New York Mets (146), Arizona Diamondbacks (130), and Philadelphia Phillies (126). Four of those teams made it into the postseason. Seven of the top 10 teams according to wRC+ from the leadoff spot made it to the playoffs. There's value in having a strong leadoff hitter.

The St. Louis Cardinals have three players who could all feasibly hit leadoff for the Cardinals in 2025: Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, and Lars Nootbaar. Each of these players has his strengths, and each has value to provide at the top of the lineup, be it speed, contact, or on-base skills. In 2024, Masyn Winn led the pack with 470 plate appearances from the leadoff spot.

Let's take a look at the raw stats for each player from the leadoff spot since 2022.

It's clear who the best hitter has been as leadoff since 2022. Lars Nootbaar leads all three players in each stat at the top spot in the batting order for the last three seasons. (Actually, Tommy Edman does in some categories, but we all know where he is now.)

Lars Nootbaar should bat leadoff for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025.

Nootbaar's rate stats are the best among the triumvirate, and he should clearly be the team's leadoff hitter in 2025. He walks at the best rate, his on-base percentage is the highest, and his wRC+ is head and shoulders above the others. While Nootbaar's speed doesn't reach the heights of Winn's — Noot was in the 40th percentile in sprint speed last year while Winn was in the 87th percentile — getting on base from the leadoff spot is more advantageous to a team than speed is.

Seeing pitches and wearing a pitcher down is also a vital part to being a leadoff hitter. In 2024, Lars Nootbaar also saw the most pitches per plate appearance among the three. He averaged 4.10 pitchers per plate appearance, while Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn averaged 3.81 and 4.01, respectively, last year.

Against right-handed pitchers, outfielder Lars Nootbaar should be the primary leadoff hitter for the Cardinals in 2025. He has the best rate stats of the team from this spot, and his tendency to get on base would be a huge advantage for a team looking to get more offense this year. Against left-handed pitchers, he may have to be shifted down, but he should still see plenty of at-bats in the top half of the lineup due to his offensive prowess.

Thus far in spring, manager Oli Marmol has placed Masyn Winn at leadoff 12 times and Lars Nootbaar at leadoff just once, and Brendan Donovan has yet to hit first. In fact, Marmol has opted to place Victor Scott II and Michael Siani at leadoff more often than Donovan and Nootbaar. This is not the right decision based on past results. Marmol is clearly favoring speed over on-base skills.

The Cardinals struggled tremendously offensively in 2024, and getting as many runners on base as possible, especially before big hitters like Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado come up to bat, will be beneficial for the club this year. Lars Nootbaar gives the Cardinals the best start to the lineup this year.