Redbird Rants writers' predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2025 season

Happy Opening Day, St. Louis Cardinals fans! It is officially time for our annual Redbird Rants writers' predictions. Expectations for this club are all over the place, and our staff is excited to see what this year has in store for the club,

Josh Jacobs (@joshjaco98) 

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

After transitioning to first base this offseason, Willson Contreras is going to shock the baseball world by earning an All-Star appearance and finishing top 10 in NL MVP voting. While Contreras’ glove won’t be considered for a Gold Glove, he will be an above-average defender in his first season at first base, and now that his legs are fresher each day and he can play 140+ games, Contreras will lead the team in OPS, home runs, and RBI, and prove he’s one of the best bats in all of baseball.

Breakout Hitter: Lars Nootbaar

I know, I know, it feels like every year now Lars Nootbaar finds his name on “breakout” lists. With the Cardinals mostly running back the same group of position players, they need them to take a step forward, and Nootbaar will do so in a meaningful way this year by staying on the field and producing at a high level. Look for Nootbaar to post a 125+ wRC+ and play in 140 games this season.

Breakout Pitcher: Tekoah Roby

I’m not sure we’ll see Tekoah Roby in St. Louis this year, but he is going to establish himself in the same tier of pitching prospect as Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence (along with Cooper Hjerpe doing so as well). We got a glimpse of how dynamic Roby can be on the mound in spring training, and that will only continue throughout the minor league season as he regains his prospect pedigree and shows why he could be a middle-of-the-rotation starter or better at the big league level.

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals hire Albert Pujols as their manager 

Even though I have defended Oliver Marmol in the past, Albert Pujols just makes way too much sense to lead the Cardinals in this new era, and the timing is perfect to make that change. Pujols has the aura and ability to right the ship at the Major League level and draw fans back to Busch Stadium, and he could be the leader of the Cardinals clubhouse for many years to come.

2025 Team Summary:

Stuck in between two worlds, the Cardinals are unable to successfully serve two masters at once, sputtering in both their desire to give runway to young talent and surprise some people in 2025. The team will finish with an 80-82 record and potentially sell some pieces at the deadline, and while the future will look bright in some respects, the club will also have a lot of questions that Chaim Bloom is forced to answer come the offseason

Writer Predictions: Thomas Gauvain (@thomasgauvain)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras’s bat has never been a problem. He’s hit every year of his career well above his peers behind the plate. With the move to first base this year, he can focus even more on hitting. I also expect at least neutral defense, but I could see a world where he is a plus defender at first. He will be the fulcrum of an otherwise average offensive team, and he will help solidify a stout infield defense.

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

For his sake, Jordan Walker needs to be a breakout hitter this year. After a year where he saw more time in Triple-A Memphis than he did in the majors — a place where he had a 72 wRC+ — it’s essential that Jordan Walker make strides offensively in 2025. With the help of new hitting coach Brant Brown, Jordan Walker will get closer to his offensive ceiling we all expected when he was a prospect.

Breakout Pitcher: Gordon Graceffo

Gordon Graceffo spent plenty of time at Tread Athletics this offseason, a place that specializes in pitcher development. His fastball has already seen upticks in velocity in spring, and he has thrown his gyro slider much harder. With the help of a sharper curveball, Graceffo now has three legitimate offerings. He’s starting off the year as a starting pitcher in Memphis, but his name will be one of the first called should an injury occur on the major-league roster. Graceffo is also willing to fill any role, so he could find himself on the mound late in games in relief.

Bold Prediction: Masyn Winn posts a 20/20 season AND pitchers under 30 will log more innings as starters than pitchers over 30.

My first one didn’t seem too bold, but it feels essential for Masyn Winn in 2025. He’s one of the fastest players on the roster, and he slugged 15 home runs last year. Speed is one of Winn’s goals for 2025, so posting a 20/20 season is within reach, but it is still slightly bold.

My second prediction feels bolder. With Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas filling out three-fifths of the rotation, only two pitchers under 30 will crack the Opening Day rotation. With injuries, trades, and probable under-performance, I expect several prospects to make starts this year. Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, and Gordon Graceffo should all make plenty of starts. When it’s all said and done, I’m predicting pitchers under 30 will log more innings as starters than pitchers over 30 in 2025.

2025 Team Summary:

Just like their offseason blueprint, the St. Louis Cardinals will float in the middle in 2025 with an 80-82 record. They’ll start the season off playing veterans and scratching and clawing for wins. By the trade deadline, we’ll have a good idea of who this team is. I expect a season eerily similar to 2024 where they remain slightly in contention, almost enough for the front office to want to be buyers, but Chaim Bloom pushes the envelope to make his job easier in his first year. I believe several veterans will be traded in June, and I think we’ll see a different lineup by September, at least from a pitching perspective.

Writer Predictions: Scott Plaza (@MrPlaztastic17)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

Contreras has always shown the ability to hit, and this year should be no different. With Arenado, Contreras will be the offensive leader of this team in both performance and energy. Even after getting battered behind the plate both physically and publicly, Contreras has been the fiery player that the Cardinals have been missing. As one of the oldest members of the team, his leadership and personality can go a long way for the youngsters in the group.

Breakout Hitter: Nolan Gorman

I’ll admit that I may be hoping against hope here, but there’s something about a young lefty with a sweet swing that I always latch onto (Colby Rasmus, Kolten Wong) and can never let go. Gorman’s ability to play average defense at second and third makes me hold onto him a little more. A second baseman hitting 30 bombs from the left side? That is tough to find anywhere around the league and could be a huge difference-maker for the future. I was between Gorman and Jordan Walker here, but this year seems more important for Gorman’s career trajectory.

Breakout Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore

I really wanted to put Steven Matz here because I truly do believe in his abilities as a starter, but I don’t see him staying in St. Louis all year, whether because of injury/performance or because he’s pitched his way into trade value. For Liberatore, it seems as if the team is finally allowing him to have a defined role coming into the season, and it should be easier for him to stick in the bullpen with the starters-in-waiting ready in the minors. While he has a starter’s repertoire, he could become a 2-3 pitch pitcher in the bullpen and become a better JoJo Romero. Then, once the veteran arms either are traded or have their contracts expire after this season, I am on board with the Liberatore to the rotation project one more time.

Bold Prediction: Masyn Winn goes 20/20 with Gorman and Jordan Walker combining for 50+ homers.

Winn may not be the prototypical leadoff man because of his aggressiveness, but I think he can use that aggressiveness to his advantage and ambush some more pitches early in the count and pop a few more homers. He had 15 homers and 11 stolen bases last year while playing through fatigue and working through his first full season, so I could see him expand his game a little in both aspects. Adding to Gorman’s success would be Walker, who hopefully shows his ability to lift the ball just a bit more. With each of those two receiving their 500 at-bat runway, there should be no reason they do not hit the 50-homer threshold.

2025 Team Summary:

With the only regulars the Cardinals lost from last season being a league-average Paul Goldschmidt and now-injured reliever Andrew Kittredge, I have a hard time seeing the team performing worse than last year. Contreras can pick up Goldy’s offense, Ivan Herrera can provide pop behind the plate, and the outfield has the potential to be a strength. I have the team winning the same number of games as last year, going 83-79 in a weak NL Central but still missing the playoffs. While that keeps them stuck in mediocrity, Chaim Bloom’s takeover should lead to a streamlined effort back into contention.

Writer Predictions: J.T. Buchheit (@jbuc14)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

Yeah, I know, spring training stats don't matter. So I'll ignore Willson Contreras' excellent .412 average and 1.112 OPS to this point. But what I can't allow to slip by is that extra muscle he packed on during the offseason after learning that he would be moving out from behind the plate and man first base instead. He is clearly dedicated to being the best first baseman possible, and where the eye test matters more in spring than at the plate is in the field, where Contreras has flashed a potentially above-average mitt at the cold corner. He may never live up to the standards of four-time Gold Glove Award-winner Paul Goldschmidt there, but he appears more skilled there than many expected. Contreras is primed to break out at the plate after disposing of the tools of ignorance behind it, and the Cardinals should go as far as he can take them in 2025.

Breakout Hitter: Luken Baker

Entering 2024, my pick to click for the Cardinals offense was Alec Burleson, and he delivered in a big way. (The less said about my pitcher choice of Zack Thompson, the better.) This year, Luken Baker should benefit from more playing time. Baker deserves a full season in St. Louis after tormenting Triple-A to the tune of 65 home runs over the past two seasons. There is nothing left for Baker to prove in Memphis, and he should be eager to prove that he is not just a Quad-A player. 

One of the major obstacles to more frequent plate appearances for Baker is the continued presence of Nolan Arenado. If the Cardinals manage to deal Arenado at some point in 2025, Baker should be among several players to reap the rewards. Also of note is the fact that Baker has no positional flexibility. He can play first base at a limited capacity, but designated hitter is where he belongs most of the time. Baker's breakout is dependent on his playing status, but if the Cardinals are able to squeeze enough plate appearances in for Baker to keep him fresh and allow him to adapt to major league pitching, there could be big returns in store.

Breakout Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore

If the Cardinals can control their urge to place Matthew Liberatore in the rotation, the southpaw whom the Cardinals acquired in the infamous Randy Arozarena trade still has a chance to become a very solid pitcher. His spring training stats so far in 2025 — not that they matter — are exceptional, but what's worth looking into more are his stats from 2024, when he held a 3.69 ERA out of the bullpen, compared with a more unsightly 6.35 ERA as a starter. I understand the temptation to move him to the rotation at some point if some of the current starters, such as Erick Fedde and Steven Matz, are dealt at the trade deadline, but if he continues his dominance in the bullpen, the Cardinals shouldn't mess with something that is working in an attempt to coax different results out of something they've tried unsuccessfully so many times.

Bold Prediction: Ivan Herrera is traded at the deadline

Ivan Herrera hit .301 in 2024. That's good! But he failed to control the running game, catching only 4 out of 59 runners attempting to steal bases on him. That's bad. But the potassium benzoate-laden arm that Herrera possesses can become a non-factor if he is able to move to a designated hitter or first base role, with the former more likely, as Herrera's 5-foot-11 frame isn't ideal for first base. The problem is that the Cardinals have a glut of designated hitter options, and Herrera's relative lack of power when compared with Alec Burleson and Luken Baker makes it tough for him to crack that role as well. As a player without a clear position, Herrera should be a prime candidate for the Cardinals to trade at the deadline to a team that has more room for Herrera, whether that team wants to keep trying him behind the plate or allow him to play as the DH. His ability to swing the bat should net the Cardinals some decent prospects in return, especially if another team sees potential in Herrera at another position on the diamond. The Cardinals have plenty of catchers coming up through the pipeline, so Herrera's absence shouldn't be too much of a blow.

2025 Team Summary:

The Cardinals don't look to be a serious contender in the division. The team's "just make the playoffs and anything can happen" mindset is less realistic in today's expanded playoff format, and the Cardinals seem to have finally realized that. The Cardinals won't see the effects of Chaim Bloom's vision for the team for a couple of years yet, and they are in the middle of a hopefully brief transition. There is reason to be bearish on the Cardinals in 2025, and barring a surprise first half of the season, they're likely to sell at the trade deadline. Put me down for an 80-82 season and no playoff spot.

Writer Predictions: Mason Keith  (@masonkeith25)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras 

Contreras should only improve at the place with his move to first base. He will have less stress on his body and he can focus more on his plate approach, and his bulked-up frame this season should generate even more power. Defense might downgrade at first base, but expect offensive production this season.

Breakout Hitter: Masyn Winn

Winn has already established himself as a regular threat in the everyday lineup. But I believe he will elevate his game at the plate. With a year under his belt, he will only improve year after year and I think fans will see this. More power at the plate, more discipline in 2-strike counts, and more confidence to carry him throughout a full season.

Breakout Pitcher: Ryan Fernandez 

The Cardinals usually discover a bullpen arm to rely on every season. Fernandez is my pick this season. He is not used in high-pressure situations and has the opportunity to find himself in this spot this season. He has shown flashes of elite stuff, and 2025 will be when he puts it together.

Bold Prediction: Steven Matz will be the most consistent starter in the rotation

2025 Team Summary:

The Cardinals in 2025 will have their ups and downs. I expect a very similar season from what we saw in 2024. This can be expected given most of the roster is returning. But I believe they will be less fortunate this season and will not be on the right side of a .500 record. The Cardinals will finish 79-83 and will miss the postseason. Buckle up, Cardinals fans; it will be a rollercoaster season.

Writer Predictions: Mack Baltes (@MackBaltes)

Team MVP: Masyn Winn

Masyn Winn had a great rookie campaign in 2024, and I don’t see why he can’t improve even further in 2025. Winn proved to be a great contact hitter at the plate, impressed many with his ability to hit when down to his final strike, and even showed a power surge near the end of the season. While these reasons make me confident in his abilities at the plate, there’s even more reason to expect a strong season from Winn defensively. Winn’s arm strength ranked in the 95th percentile according to Baseball Savant, and he also ranked in the 84th percentile in outs above average. Furthermore, Winn also has plans to steal more bases in 2025, making him that much more valuable. My only concern with Winn is that he may try to abandon his contact approach in order to hit more home runs. While his power towards the end of last season was impressive, I’d rather Winn stick to what made him successful and gradually add power to his approach rather than being a power hitter with a low batting average and high strikeout rate.

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

Although I think Alec Burleson will continue to progress, considering he was already one of the main contributors on offense last year, I’ll refrain from selecting him. Of all the young guns within the organization (excluding Masyn Winn) at the big-league level, I think Jordan Walker has shown the most talent and potential at the plate. This was shown during his 12-game hit streak as a rookie in 2023 and in 2024, I didn’t feel the Cardinals gave him a fair shake. Although he has spent time with the team for two seasons, he only has 168 career games played in the big leagues, just over one full season's worth. In these games, Walker has accumulated 21 home runs, 148 hits, and a .255 batting average. Not bad at all for your first year of big league contests. This year, I’m excited to see an extended look at Walker, especially taking last season into account where I felt the team should not have sent him down to Triple-A for as long as they did.

Breakout Pitcher: Ryan Fernandez

Last season, the Cardinals saw great seasons from many different bullpen pitchers. Ryan Fernandez impressed many last year and earned opportunities in many high-leverage situations. With the departure of Andrew Kittredge (who ranked second in holds last season), Fernandez will find himself another chance to pitch late in games for the Cardinals. With a four-seam fastball, cutter, and sinker all averaging above 90 mph in 2024, Fernandez’s arsenal certainly plays. I expect him to take another jump in 2025 as he preserves many games for Ryan Helsley.

Bold Prediction: Masyn Winn combines for 45+ stolen bases/home runs and receives a Gold Glove nomination

I expect Masyn Winn to run a lot in 2025, but I also expect his power numbers to be up too. 50 may be a bold prediction, but Winn is certainly capable. As far as defense goes, I think he is as talented as any other shortstop in the National League. Despite exceptional defenders like Elly De La Cruz, Dansby Swanson, Ezequiel Tovar, and Francisco Lindor, I still like Winn’s chances of becoming a Gold Glove finalist.

2025 Team Summary:

I was torn on this portion of the predictions, but I have no remorse in providing a lackluster prediction of 77-85 for the team. The Cardinals showed minimal direction in the offseason and some of their young talent has yet to break out, which prohibits me from expecting a winning record. While some may find the subtractions of Andrew Kittredge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Kyle Gibson to be minimal, the addition of Phil Maton certainly doesn’t replace the impact of these three players on his own. Factor in the possibility of trading players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, and Nolan Arenado, things could get rough towards the second half of the season. With this record, I expect the Cardinals to miss the playoffs, but I remain hopeful in a Cardinals franchise run by Chaim Bloom. Optimistically, the turnover from Mozeliak to Bloom will also include a managerial change.

Writer predictions: Jameson McCurdy (@J_macc14)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras 

Through all the roster turmoil, one of the Cardinals' most reliable and passionate players is switching to a brand-new position in 2025, which also brings more responsibility. Paul Goldschmidt was the MVP of the National League just 3 years ago and was a trusted bat in the middle of the Cardinals lineup throughout his tenure in St. Louis, and they’ll be looking for similar production from that position. Contreras has shown in his first two seasons with the Cardinals that his bat definitely plays at first base, and I expect him to fill those shoes in the middle of the lineup and be the Cardinals' most valuable player this year.

Breakout hitter: Ivan Herrera

With Contreras moving to first base, that opens the door for Herrera to get more at-bats and more opportunities to show he’s ready to be a big-league starter. The chances have been limited for Herrera since he made his big league debut in 2022, and even with Contreras missing time due to injury last season, he split catching duties with Pedro Pages. That may happen again this year, but I think with the Cardinals' offensive struggles in 2024, they’ll be looking for a spark from somebody to step up this season with the bat, and Herrera will flourish with that chance. 

Breakout pitcher: Michael McGreevy

McGreevy will start the season in Memphis, but we will surely see him back in the leagues at some point this season. In a handful of starts last year, McGreevy made a great impression, showing why he was a first-round pick back in 2021. The Cardinals are without 2 of their starters that they had last season, and Erick Fedde has had his name thrown around in trade rumors. The opportunity should open up soon for McGreevy to show he can be a top-of-the-rotation arm in the big leagues. He is thought of with high potential from the organization, and I think he’ll show this year that he’ll be a centerpiece in the Cardinals rotation for the next several seasons.

Bold prediction: The Cardinals sell at the deadline like we’ve never seen before 

John Mozeliak is out after this season and a new regime will be taking over. Why not start with a clean slate? I don’t expect the Cardinals to be contending at any point this season, and if that’s the case, the Cardinals have an opportunity to accelerate their "retool" by selling off assets. Whether it’s Nolan Arenado, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley, Lars Nootbaar, etc., they can all bring back significant value. And if the Cardinals aren’t in contention, this gives them a chance to help give resources to Chaim Bloom before he officially takes over next season. 

2025 Team Summary:

In a lot of ways, this is the exact same team that we saw in 2024. The subtractions outweigh the additions, and they're in a division that I think will be more competitive than last season. For the 2nd straight season, I don’t have much faith in this team to make the playoffs, I think they’re a .500 team at best. But it’s more than just what their record will be; it’s what they do with their minor league talent, and how they develop them is what I’ll be keeping a close eye on this season. This season, we have to get a sneak peek of what the team will look like in future years. It’s crucial to what the Cardinals will be in future years so that this drought the franchise is in isn’t prolonged any longer. 

Writer Predictions: Michael Carpenter (@_MCSports)

Team MVP: Brendan Donovan

One of the best Cardinals hitters in 2024, Brendan Donovan is primed to have his best season as a pro in 2025. Slashing .280/.364/.407 with 100 extra-base hits and 152 RBI in 374 games played as a Cardinal, Donovan has shown power improvement in each of the last three seasons, and a 20-plus home run mark in 2025 is not out of the question. While his bat is going to play a huge role in the Cardinals having success, his defensive versatility will be crucial in keeping the team fresh throughout the season.

A more-than-capable defender at multiple positions, he spent time at second base, third base, and left field last season. With the 28-year-old now expected to get some time at shortstop this season, manager Oli Marmol will have one of the best utilitymen in the MLB at his disposal when filling out the lineup card during the upcoming season.

Breakout Hitter: Victor Scott II

Making his MLB debut last year, Scott II had a disappointing rookie season. Playing in 53 games, the 24-year-old slashed .179/.219/.283 with 11 extra-base hits and 5 stolen bases with the Cardinals. After a monster performance during spring training, Scott II is going to enter Opening Day as the Cardinals starting center fielder. Expected to hit toward the bottom of the lineup to begin the season, Scott could move his way to the top if his hot hitting continues during the regular season. With his speed and baserunning ability already a game-changer, Scott will cement himself as one of the building blocks in the Cardinals franchise in 2025.

Breakout Pitcher: Tink Hence

One of the Cardinals' top prospects since 2021, Hence has shown the ability to be a strikeout artist on the mound, averaging 11.6 K/9 over 236 innings pitched during his minor league career. The one area he has struggled with is staying healthy: The 22-year-old has yet to top more than 96 innings pitched during a season. Hence will get his first taste of Triple-A in 2025, and I expect a big season from him as Hence finally stays injury-free and gets his first taste of the MLB as a member of the bullpen.

Bold Prediction: Victor Scott II has 40+ stolen bases and is a Gold Glove Award finalist

Not only will Scott II be the Cardinals' biggest breakout hitter in 2025, but he will also cruise past the 40-stolen base mark while also pushing for a National League Gold Glove award in center field. With improved confidence at the plate in 2025, the stolen bases should come easily if he can continue to get on base. He will also get the chance to showcase his defensive ability as he looks to become the defensive leader of the Cardinals outfield.

2025 Team Summary:

While the rest of the division made moves to try and improve, the Cardinals waved goodbye to multiple contributors this past offseason while not adding anyone noteworthy to replace them. I fully expect them to be sellers at the trade deadline and move veterans to help continue restocking their farm system. While I don’t see the Cardinals making the playoffs in 2025, I predict that they finish the season with an 82-80 record.

The outfield trio of Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Scott II will all have breakout seasons, and a few of their young pitching prospects, including Hence and Tekoah Roby, will take big steps in their development as the club starts to find its identity as they prepare for the Chaim Bloom era to begin in St. Louis.