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What if Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado turn it around?

The two cornerstones have been lackluster this year offensively. What if they approach their career norms?
Thomas Gauvain
Thomas Gauvain

Redbird Rants

San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals / Scott Kane/GettyImages

On July 10th against the Kansas City Royals, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado accomplished a feat that they hadn't done in nearly a year: they each hit a home run in the same game.

Perhaps those blasts were signs of things to come for the two Cardinal boppers. In a season full of struggles, having a home run from each could potentially be a sign of things to come for the two. Nolan Arenado is slashing .269/.320/.385 on the year, but his slash line of .306/.340/.388 over the last 30 days has given fans a glimpse of what's possible for the third baseman. While his power has been sapped this year, hitting for average is still a redeemable quality.

Paul Goldschimdt's .229/.293/.376 slash line is far below his career average, but even he is seeing some promising outcomes in the last month of games. He's slashing .229/.264/.410 over the last 30 days. Obviously, Goldy isn't drawing walks this year. He has a 7.8% walk rate this year, and that's abysmal for a middle-of-the-order bat -- though Goldschmidt probably needs to be moved down in the lineup.

The two future Hall of Fame cornerstones have not been themselves this year; it appears as though Father Time, who is undefeated, has finally caught up to them. What if the two begin to inch closer to their career norms? I'm not saying they'll all of a sudden become hitters who can finish the year with OPS+ scores greater than 120 like their career numbers indicate. Rather, what if they were even 80% of that?

Goldshmidt currently has an 87 OPS+, and Arenado's 97 OPS+ is nearly 25 points below his career norms. Arenado is actually outpacing what would be 80% of his career offensive output according to OPS+, but his lack of power production is jarring. Home runs and doubles are far more damaging than singles. His career slugging percentage -- excluding the 2024 season -- is .528. 80% of that figure is .424. Arenado's slugging percentage this year is .385, a full .040 points lower.

If Paul Goldschmidt can walk about 10% (13% career average) of the time and if Nolan Arenado can begin slugging just a bit better, the Cardinals' offense can take off in the second half. When coupled with the output that the left-handed batters have been providing, Goldy and Arenado being just 80% of their career selves in certain aspects that they once excelled in can make this offense one of the best in the league very quickly

Thomas Gauvain

Thomas Gauvain

Thomas started writing for Redbird Rants in June of 2023. He has been a Cardinals fan for nearly 25 years and enjoys providing in-depth coverage on team transactions, historical events, and player analysis. Thomas has taught English for seven years now. His articles have been referenced by Bernie Miklasz and Trevor May, and he's appeared on the Locked On Cardinals podcast multiple times. You can find Thomas on Twitter @thomasgauvain for more opinions and reactions to Cardinal baseball.