Cardinals at a crossroads: 2 reasons to buy, 2 reasons to sell

The St. Louis Cardinals have shocked everyone so far in the 2025 season. The "reset" Redbirds have overcome all the doubt and adversity presented to them and are one of the better teams across all of MLB.

After reeling off 16 wins over their last 21 games, the race to October looks to be set heading into June. But the Cardinals were not supposed to be in this position. With expectations changing, the team's approach to the trade deadline should also change. 2025 was aimed at being a platform year for young players to prove themselves and be given every opportunity to earn their roster spot.

But with a team showcasing the capability to be a playoff contender, it is time to look at weaknesses to improve upon to continue this momentum. Given the Cardinals are stuck in the mud with this direction at the moment, let's look at two reasons why the team should buy at the deadline and two reasons they should sell.

First reason to buy: Improve pitching

Pitching is at the crux of every contending team trying to improve. In football, defense wins championships. But in baseball, it is pitching, especially a really strong bullpen. Teams go into a frenzy at the trade deadline to patch up any holes in their bullpen to reposition themselves for the October run. The same goes for the Cardinals, with a dire need for upgrading the bullpen. Outside of Phil Maton and Ryan Helsley shutting the door on games and Kyle Leahy carrying the team on his back, the rest of the bullpen is a giant question mark.

As described in one of my most recent articles, the bullpen is ranked 29th in all of MLB in cumulative stats. It has been a revolving door for back-end relievers being called up and sent down, JoJo Romero is trying to find himself again, and John King is somehow a regular on the roster, given his FIP is almost a run higher than his ERA. Can the current patched bullpen be sustainable over the remaining season? If so, do they have enough to hold the team together in a postseason run? The organization is very limited in its internal options in the minor leagues and cannot overuse its reliable options to remain competitive. With players like Steven Matz filling gaps but potentially being shopped during the deadline frenzy, their is much room to add and improve upon.

Even given the success so far from the Starters, does the team or fans expect this to sustain itself? Mikolas got touched up in his most recent start, and team ace Matthew Liberatore got shelled for the first time in 2025. The smoking mirror says to keep the starting five intact, but the reality is that the team could add on to its starting pitching depth or even make a slight upgrade if pitchers like Fedde or Matz are traded at the deadline. Matthew Liberatore is also facing the biggest stretch of his MLB career. The recent flexed reliever is now an established starter, but with limited innings to showcase his ability to handle a 25-30 start workload. To prevent himself from burnout and hindering his highly impressive step forward in 2025, the team could be looking to supplement workload management for Liberatore.

Regardless, the team needs to jump into the reliever market before it gets too expensive for the reset plan. Then listen to offers for the starting pitching market and see what opportunites present themselves.

Second reason to buy: Adding Power to the Lineup

The current lineup is left-handed-bat heavy and loaded with guys who get hits but not for much power. Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar have been more than impressive so far in 2025 with a 139 OPS+ and 111 OPS+, which the lineup needed. Nootbaar has been below his career average for SLG, but he's been more effective getting on base. Meanwhile, Donovan is out slugging his career average, has only produced 4 HR, and 24 RBI. While he is a doubles merchant with 18, he is not generating enough runs with his bat and needs more support behind him.

Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera are providing the power from the right side, with Nolan Arenado and Jordan Walker failing to provide additional support. Arenado will most certainly be the talk of the trade deadline given the off-season drama, so his time on the roster might be limited. Nolan Gorman would presumably take his place at third base, where he is another left-handed bat in the starting lineup. With the rest of the lineup being predominantly left-handed bats, the team can use an additional right-handed bat to balance out the lineup vs left-handed pitching.

The best fit would be an outfielder to platoon with Nootbaar and Walker or come off the bench in critical at-bats. Walker is currently on the IL with a wrist injury, so now the team is down a RH bat that has been generating a recent power surge. Luken Baker has failed time and time again to be a reliable bench producer at the major league level. So this leaves the Cardinals with remaining depth pieces that are not power threats at the plate. With Ryan Vilade called up to replace Walker on the roster, this is the true testament that it is time to upgrade the depth.

But what price will the team pay for this, given that they want to play struggling players like Walker every day? If the team is truly wanting to make a push as a contender, they need to look at adding a starting-quality player to play every day. A player like Taylor Ward could hit the market, which would be a great fit in RF for the Cardinals. But this would be a pricey move for a front office that is currently in a transition phase. The team led by John Mozeliak could make a Mozeliak move, which is taking a flyer on someone, hoping to buy low and gamble on high production. Newly DFA player Hunter Renfroe could be the affordable flier choice, which fits the current front office's normal roster move.

First reason to sell: Focus on the Chaim era

While competing in 2025 is desired by all Cardinals fans, it is too early to commit to the current roster. It might be exciting that the team looks competitive for the first time in three years, but this is mostly the same roster that failed time and time again. The publicly stated "reset" was allowing expiring contracts to walk, and no trades were made to retool the roster. With the opportunity to sell off pieces of the roster that are not long-term assets to build for the future, nothing was done, and the team appeared to be stuck in limbo with its decision-making.

Now the team is in a position to add to this roster to make a serious push for a playoff spot in 2025. After two months of baseball have been played, the Cardinals have showcased that they can surpass the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central. They are already capable of securing a Wild Card spot with the NL West having a gauntlet the whole season. It is a great time for the team to improve their weaknesses to put themselves in a great spot to continue their success. The only issue is that the decision maker is being given a swan song exit and might be lacking motivation to make critical decisions.

With the orchestrator of this current roster, John Mozeliak, still taking charge for 2025, any decision made by him can cause future issues for his successor, Chaim Bloom. Any decision regarding the future roster needs to be made by the guy who will still be here, which is Chaim. So if the Cardinals are selling off assets to buy into the 2025 team, this benefits Mozeliak to go out on a positive note while potentially leaving Chaim with more of a mess to clean up. If the Cardinals sell current assets to invest into future ones, this can be done with direction from Chaim.

Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, and any fringe starting player like Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson have the potential to be moved if the right deal is in place. The organization is in the process of playing these fringe players consistently to find out if they are a part of future plans or need to be moved to acquire other pieces to balance out the roster. Any expiring contract needs to be moved, regardless of the team's success in 2025. The slate needs to be clean for Chaim to take over and really implement the needed change to the organization.

Second reason to sell: Fix issues within the foundation

The Cardinals' major weakness is the overall foundation of their player development. With deeper issues at hand to be fixed, trading fringe players can help address this issue sooner rather than later.

The starting pitching depth in the minor leagues is depleted, no reliable relievers are being developed, and the organization has yet to produce any power-hitting threat that's a lineup mainstay in over a decade. It is always a gamble to trade MLB-proven players for unknown prospects, but the Cardinals are in an unstable situation with their organizational health. The team has tried spending money to fix roster issues, but it has failed to gel these additions with the core of the roster.

The Goldschmidt/Arenado era showcased this weakness as the team could not figure out how to utilize the talent they currently had, and how to add veteran pieces to fill in any noticeable gaps. Trading away potential talent like Lane Thomas for Jon Lester, or the Sandy Alcantara/Zac Gallen trade for two years of Marcel Ozuna, have lasting effects on the roster still to this day. As for the players acquired in deals like these two, nothing came out of it. For years, the team tried to patch holes in the walls of the roster when the foundation that was building the house was cracked and flawed.

If the Cardinals are serious about returning the franchise to its winning prestige across the league, it starts with reducing the weaknesses across the entire organization and building on from there. Once the foundation is reestablished rather than patched up, then you will see sustainable growth from all aspects. From Randy Flores continuing his draft success, to the new pieces in charge of player development to recognize what the last group did wrong, to the now fully staffed coaches to help players finally tap into their potential.

This can be established given Chaim's track record with player development, but it will take time. The Red Sox are benefiting from Chaim's success with player development, as they have four prospects in MLB top 100 prospects. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Meyer are now at the big league level, showcasing their talent to help bring the Red Sox back into contention. With Roman Anthony claiming the top prospect in all of MLB title, he will soon shine in Boston. The Cardinals have lacked this level of player development for a long time, and finally recognized they need to get back to this level. But it all starts by taking direction and getting the ball moving, and this deadline can be the start of that for Chaim Bloom.