6 realistic starting pitchers who could be home run signings for the Cardinals

While the St. Louis Cardinals are not expected to be major players in free agency this year, they are going to be active in looking for starting pitchers to add to their rotation, and they may even take a bigger swing than you might be thinking.

While I find it very unlikely that they'd pursue one of the biggest name starters like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, and the likes of those arms, reports do indicate that the Cardinals are letting free agents know they are interested, and some of those options will depend on how much money they can move from their books. If that's the case, that means they are likely talking to some arms that are a bit bigger name than the group of pitchers that will be getting $5ish million deals.

Today, I wanted to circle five different names that I find both exciting and realistic for the Cardinals to sign this offseason. Expectations matter, and so yes, I think it is fair to get excited about arms below the top of the market if they have the right set of tools and upside. While John Mozeliak liked to color within the lines and avoid risky starters with higher upside, I do believe Bloom's front office will be targeting different arms, evidenced by the high velocity and high "stuff" guys he targeted in the 2025 MLB Draft and at the MLB trade deadline.

So, with that being said, let's dive into five arms that I think are realistic fits for St. Louis that also could end up being home run signings.

Tyler Mahle

Throughout his MLB career, Tyler Mahle has been a very effective starting pitcher, but has struggled to stay healthy in recent years as he entered his prime. Since 2020, Mahle has posted a 3.61 ERA while he's been on the bump with a 25.4 K%, but he's only thrown 473.1 innings.

Mahle barely pitched in 2023 and 2024, but upon his return in 2025 with the Texas Rangers, he was dynamite on the mound despite a major dip in his K% and whiff rate. It's hard to know how much of that can be attributed to working his way back from Tommy John and shoulder surgeries. Yes, the injury history is concerning, but he did make it back to the Rangers' rotation to end the 2025 season after missing more time. In total, Mahle made 16 starts for Texas this past season, posting a 2.18 ERA and 3.37 FIP in the process.

My guess is that Mahle is going to have to take a one-year deal for the most money he can find, and a team like St. Louis offers him the opportunity to be guaranteed a rotation spot and pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Oh, and he should have a good defense behind him, so all of those factors could be highly appealing to a player like Mahle, who likely wants to cash in on a long-term deal after 2026.

One more added wrinkle for you, and it is something I am going to highlight for multiple pitchers on this list. In 2024 and 2025, the Cardinals were able to keep their pitching staff very healthy, with only John King hitting the injured list from their active roster during the 2025 season, and in 2024, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn just had brief stints on the injured list.

For arms that have a history of getting hurt, the Cardinals clearly had a plan to keep their starters healthy the last two years, and that plan worked. Will it keep working? Who knows. But if a free agent starter wants to increase their value before hitting free agency again in the next few offseasons, finding a way to stay healthy will be essential. Mahle could really benefit from a full season of health, and that makes St. Louis an even more appealing location.

Dustin May

Speaking of starters who have struggled with injuries, Dustin May feels like one of the poster children for bad injury luck. Throughout his big league career, May has missed significant time with elbow injuries, forearm issues, back ailments, and even a crazy and life-threatening esophagus tear.

Even so, since his debut in 2019, he has had tantalizing stuff that the Los Angeles Dodgers always hoped would translate into stardom, and other organizations dreamed of getting their hands on. In 2021, it felt like the stars were finally aligning, as May posted a 2.74 ERA and 13.7 K/9 over his first five starts, just to have his season ended once again by injury.

May lost some velocity on his fastball in 2025, which is certainly concerning. For some reason, he's never really been a guy who has been able to create much swing and miss despite how nasty his stuff looks and short spurts where the bats were missing, but when he's been at his best, May has generated ground balls at a very high level.

May's stuff is pretty electric, though, and even in a weird 2025 season where he posted a career high in innings pitched (132.1) with bad results (4.96 ERA), his sweeper had the highest spin rate of any breaking ball in baseball last year, and his sinker still has incredible horizontal movement.

If you want to bet on stuff, there are going to be very few starters available in free agency that won't cost an arm and a leg to acquire that have that. Now, because of that, May comes with a ton of risk, both in terms of his ability to stay on the field as well as his actual performance on the bump, but that is the kind of risk that is worth taking for the Cardinals in 2026.

While acquiring quality rotation arms is at the top of their list, betting on upside with those additions could benefit the Cardinals massively in the long term. Sure, stability from those spots would be nice long-term, but it doesn't exactly offer a rebuilding club a ton other than that. But betting on upside could mean they find a future stud for their rotation, or someone they can flip at the deadline later for valuable prospects.

Lucas Giolito

A former first-round pick, Lucas Giolito has put together a really solid big league career since debuting back in 2016, reaching the heights of his potential from 2019-2021 with the Chicago White Sox.

During that stretch, Giolito received Cy Young votes each season, posting a 3.47 ERA over that stretch with a 1.08 WHIP and striking out 30.7% of the batters he faced. He's never been much of a ground ball inducer, but when he's been at his best, he strikes out opposing hitters with the best of them.

The strikeout stuff took a dip from 2022-2023, as did his effectiveness, but he rebounded in a big way in 2025. Despite posting a career-low 19.7% strikeout percentage, he had a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts to go along with a career low 9.3% HR/FB ratio. That last part would concern me a bit, as a return to his career norm would likely yield horrible results without a bounce back in his strikeout rate.

Still, Giolito flashed his high-end stuff for Boston, and so he may be a nice target for St. Louis this offseason.

He posted a positive run value with his fastball for the first time since 2020, and his slider returned to being a positive pitch as well. Considering he missed the entire 2024 season due to UCL surgery, it's not a surprise that his stuff took a step back in his first full season back on the mound, so 2026 could be the true rebound season.

There'll likely be multiple contenders interested in bringing Giolito in, but St. Louis would offer him a place where he can pitch against a weak division in a pitcher-friendly ballpark with a guaranteed rotation spot and a good defense behind him. And considering his own injury history, their recent ability to keep starters healthy would be an added bonus.

Bloom didn't bring Giolito into Boston (he was let go a few months prior), but Giolito would be a very interesting target for him with St. Louis. He has quite a bit of MLB experience, great stuff, and a track record of high-level production.

Cody Ponce

Like Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas before him, Cody Ponce made the trip over to the NPB and KBO since 2022, and 2025 saw him explore as a starter and become a real option for Major League teams interested in pitching this offseason.

Taking home the 2025 KBO MVP award, Ponce set the KBO ERA record for a foreign starter with a 1.89 ERA in 29 starts. Ponce also set a KBO record with 252 strikeouts, posting an otherworldly 36.2% strikeout percentage along the way.

Obviously, no one is expecting Ponce to replicate those numbers in 2026 if he returns to the Majors, but he does seem like a transformed pitcher. Even though the Fedde experience imploded in 2025 and Mikolas' final years with St. Louis were frustrating, both pitchers had great success in the early stages of their transition back to MLB.

For Ponce, there are multiple parts of his arsenal that seem to be radically different from when we last saw him with the Pirates in 2021. His fastball velocity has jumped from the low-90s to touching the upper 90s. This allowed him to find more success with his breaking balls as well, and he has picked up a splitter that grades out as a plus pitch, which could bode well for him in MLB, considering how much success pitchers from Japan and Korea are finding with them as well.

Fedde signed with the Chicago White Sox two offseasons ago on a two-year, $15 million deal, and Ponce is someone I would be more than comfortable giving a larger deal than that to. While you're likely hoping for back-end of the rotation production, I do think Ponce has the potential to be more than that, and should be able to be acquired for a small price. He has been a popular pick from outside analysts for the Cardinals to sign this offseason.

Max Scherzer

Everyone loves bringing back hometown kids. The Cardinals missed the boat on signing Max Scherzer during his prime, but perhaps they can be a landing spot for him in the twilight of his career.

2025 was a dud year for Scherzer during the regular season, making just 16 starts on the year with a 5.19 ERA and striking out fewer than nine batters per nine innings. His chase and whiff percentages took massive dips from 2024, and considering he doesn't get a lot of ground balls or miss many barrels, it leaves him prone to allowing a lot of damage.

Now, Scherzer did play a major role in the Blue Jays' run to the World Series, posting a 3.77 ERA over three starts for Toronto, so he did show that when the chips are on the line, he's still got what it takes to pitch effectively against big-time lineups. Because of that, my guess is a contender will find a spot for him in their rotation, and now that his close friend Tony Vitello is managing the San Francisco Giants, I'd be surprised if he doesn't end up there.

Cardinals fans, and rightfully so, have a hard time letting go of the DeWitt family passing on giving Scherzer a contract "in the ballpark" of what the Nationals offered him to come home. He called Adam Wainwright to let him know they just needed to be close to what Washington was offering to get him, but they didn't even call.

Now, if a market doesn't develop for Scherzer, and he still wants to pitch, St. Louis would be a nice landing spot for him. Assuming they end up trading Sonny Gray, Scherzer would give the Cardinals a veteran presence in their rotation, and someone that they could potentially ship to a contender at the deadline if he is pitching well enough.

With Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, and soon names like Quinn Mathews, Liam Doyle, Brycen Mautz, and Ixan Henderson joining the crew, it would be great to have a personality like Scherzer guiding them in their development.

Ryan Helsley

I've always thought Ryan Helsley deserved the chance to start in St. Louis, but it never came to be. After a failed stint with the New York Mets in the second half, Helsley is now a free agent and looking for a new home, and is drawing interest from other clubs as a starting pitcher.

If Helsley is going to try starting, going back to somewhere he is familiar with would likely help that process. Instead of having to learn a new coaching staff and living situation, Helsley can get back to work with Dusty Blake and the Cardinals' new player development group.

Plenty of relievers have made the transition to starting after years of relieving and found great success, like Garrett Crochet, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Cristopher Sanchez, Reynaldo Lopez, and more. While the old regime seemed to pigeonhole pitchers like Helsley into bullpen roles, the Cardinals drafted a high-velocity reliever in Tanner Franklin in hopes that he could start long-term in this past draft, and so they are clearly more open to helping pitchers with great stuff find a way to succeed as starters, even if they've been relievers leading up to that.

Helsley, in my opinion, would offer the Cardinals one of their highest upside options for their rotation at an affordable rate. I can't imagine he would get more than $15 million per season on just a one or two-year deal, but I'd guess it is a bit less than that. If he fails as a starter, the Cardinals can always have him relieve again, but if he succeeds, he has the kind of stuff to be a front-line starter or high-impact middle of the rotation arm. He can fill that leadership void they may have post-Gray trade and do so with great stuff, and he's been very open about his love for the Cardinals organization.

Yes, there is risk involved. Helsley needs to figure out his pitch tipping issue and will need to sort out what pitches he wants to integrate more into his arsenal alongside his fastball and slider. Those are not simple things, but are we really going to throw out the years of success that Helsley had with St. Louis because of a terrible second half in New York?

I'd love for the Cardinals to bring in Helsley as a starter this offseason. Will it work? I'm not sure. But I have a lot of optimism that he will, and it could be a huge asset to their rebuild if they can pull that kind of value out of him.