5 prospects MLB mock drafts have the Cardinals selecting with the 5th overall pick

While the St. Louis Cardinals currently sit with a .500 record, their best start to a season through 38 games since 2022, most fans eyes remain on the future for this club, and the 2025 MLB Draft is fast approaching.

On July 13th, the Cardinals will be selecting fifth overall in the MLB Draft, their highest selection since 1998 when they selected outfielder J.D. Drew fifth overall. The 2024 MLB Draft was the first time the club had selected in the top ten since 1998, and they were able to land a premier prospect in West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt.

With just 65 days until the MLB Draft, draft analysts around the country are beginning to narrow down whom the Cardinals could be selecting in the first round this year. This year, there does not seem to be a consensus number one talent on the board, so there is a wider range of potential options who could fall to the Cardinals' pick at number five than in typical years. While most scouts believe talents like Ethan Holliday and Seth Hernandez will be selected in the top four picks, as we saw with Wetherholt last year, top talents have weird draft day slides.

Here are 5 prospects that MLB mock drafts have the Cardinals selecting with the fifth overall pick this year

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State (Baseball America)

Coming off a stellar sophomore season for the University of Washington last season, Aiva Arquette transferred to Oregon State and has done nothing but mash his way to a probable top-five pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.

In 47 games so far this season, Arquette has posted a .350/.475/.695 slash line with 16 home runs and 56 RBI, walking 33 times and striking out just 36. Arquette's 6'4, 200-pound frame has scouts believing in enough power upside to warrant a high selection in this year's draft.

Arquette was recently mocked to the Cardinals by Baseball America in their staff draft back on April 28th, believing he made sense as the first college bat off the board and the Cardinals' top selection due to that power upside, which may be bigger than Texas A&M's Jace LaViolette, and his potential postional value at shortstop or third base upping his value even further.

Arquette is far from the pure hitter that Wetherholt was last year, and while his power would be very tempting, he would be more of a projectable bat than what the Cardinals landed in the first round last year. That's not a bad thing, though, as the Cardinals really do lack high-end offensive potential in their system right now, so adding Arquette's bat to names like Wetherholt, Jimmy Crooks, Chase Davis, and Josh Kross would be a welcomed upgrade to their farm system.

While Arquette's glove may not be the calling card of his game, it's one that scouts believe could allow him to stick at shortstop long term, and he's flashing the ability to make excellent plays throughout the season for Oregon State.

Keep an eye on Arquette for the Cardinals, although, there is a pretty good chance he's off the board before they select.

RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma (Keith Law)

This may be a name that even the most plugged-in Cardinals fans are not familiar with, but it's the one that Keith Law has the Cardinals taking in his latest mock draft over on The Athletic.

After what was a solid freshman campaign for Witherspoon in which he posted a 3.71 ERA and 10.1 K/9 in 17 games (11 starts), the right-hander has come out blazing in 2025, posting a 2.13 ERA and 100 strikeouts across 72 innings in just 12 starts. Witherspoon is one of the most dynamic starting pitchers in college baseball right now and someone I could easily see the Cardinals wanting to add to their farm system in the MLB Draft.

One of the reasons Witherspoon has put himself into the conversation to be a top-five pick has been the addition of a curveball to his arsenal this year. In 2024, his slider was his go-to breaking ball, and while that's a legit pitch for him, the curveball addition has allowed him to keep batters even more off balance and increase his swings and misses.

Standing at 6'2, Witherspoon has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can touch 99 MPH when he's at full effort, and the pitch has the kind of life in the zone needed to get batters out at the next level. Baseball America has his fastball and slider both ranked at 60-grade pitches on the 20/80 scale, his slider sitting in the mid-to-high 80s and generating a ton of whiffs. His change-up projects to be an average pitch at the moment, but it would give him a five-pitch mix with another plus offering in his cutter.

While command was a huge issue for Witherspoon as a freshman (4.5 BB/9), he's cut that in half this year (2.1 BB/9), and continued improvement in this area will increase his chances of sticking as a starting pitcher. At just 20 years old, there's a lot to dream on for the right-hander, and considering you can never have enough pitching, the Cardinals would be wise to consider him at number five.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State (MLB Pipeline)

For a few months now, most mock drafts have had left-handed starter Jamie Arnold from Florida State going with the number one overall pick, and if he wasn't selected there, he was for sure gone before the Cardinals selected at number five. But a brand new mock draft from one of the biggest outlets regarding MLB draft coverage is changing that.

Jim Callis, who has been covering MiLB and the MLB Draft for MLB Pipeline for years now, mocked Arnold to the Cardinals at number five, seeing him as the third college arm off the board in his write-up, behind fellow lefties Liam Doyle (Tennessee) and Kade Anderson (LSU).

While that was certainly a surprise for me to see, nothing can be ruled out when you consider how front offices value players differently, as well as signing bonus implications. Getting Arnold at number five would be a huge win for the Cardinals, as he posted a 2.29 ERA in 10 starts this year while striking out 11.9 batters per nine, and that's coming off a 2024 campaign where he struck out 13.5 batters per nine while allowing just 35 runs in 105.2 innings of work.

Arnold, 21, is Baseball America's top-ranked prospect as of right now due to his power stuff from the left side and above-average command. Most scouts saw Arnold as the best pitcher in the ACC behind Chase Burns last year, who went second overall to the Cincinnati Reds in the 2024 MLB Draft. Arnold's fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s with crazy run on it, and his slider has been a wipeout pitch against both left-handed and right-handed hitters.

Arnold also appears to have a reworked splitter added to his arsenal this spring, one that he has been deadly at times and could make him even more of a force on the mound as he grows in his comfort with it.

Adding Arnold to the system alongside Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and other intriguing arms would be another point in the Cardinals' direction as they work to change the narrative on their pitching development. While Mathews has established himself as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game through an incredible 2024 campaign, Arnold would represent a different tier of player, immediately becoming one of the best southpaw prospects in the game before even throwing a pitch in the minor leagues.

SS Billy Carlson, Corona High School (USA Today)

With the Cardinals selecting as high as they are in this year's draft, there remains the potential that they could go after a high-upside high school player, swinging for the fences as they hope to draft and develop a really impactful player for their team.

Billy Carlson, a high school shortstop out of California, has found himself mocked to the Cardinals by various outlets over the last few months, and most recently by USA Today. Carlson, whom both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America have ranked in their top eight prospects for this draft, is an extremely toolsy player whom many scouts are extremely high on. Carlson has gotten a ton of attention from talent evaluators this spring because of that potential and the fact that he's teammates with fellow projected top-five pick Seth Hernandez.

Carlson's swing is more of a line-drive approach, and while there are mixed opinions on his hit tool, many scouts do believe he can become an above-average hitter and power threat alongside potential elite speed and defense. If he can make good on the projections and add more bat speed and strength, he could be a really intriguing hitter at the next level.

While scouts do not view him as a two-way prospect anymore, he was at one time due to his 97 miles per hour fastball, which should tell you what kind of arm Carlson would have in the field. His glove and arm are the tools scouts are more enamored with, and as Cardinals fans have seen with Masyn Winn so far, a player with elite arm talent, glove skills, and an above-average bat can be very impactful at a very young age.

This is a good time to remind those who do not follow the MLB draft all that closely year to year that teams do not draft based on what their current MLB roster needs, at least teams not named the Los Angeles Angels. Outside of injury concerns or the potential of getting a player to sign a below-slot deal, most teams are looking for the best player available, regardless of position. Most players, especially high school prospects like Carlson, are 3-5 years away from their Major League debuts. So many variables can change by then, and the club will find a way to make it work or use Carlson as surplus value down the line.

If Carlson is the top player on the Cardinals' board when they are selecting, do not be surprised if they go in that direction. I can already hear the Dylan Carlson jokes coming now, though.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Braxton High School (Prospects Live)

Another high school shortstop has been mocked to the Cardinals in recent days, as Prospects Live had Eli Willits going number five overall in their recent 2025 MLB Mock Draft.

Willits is another player whom most hardcore Cardinals fans probably have not heard of, but he was ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the class by MLB Pipeline and sixth best by Baseball America. Son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits, the 6'1 shortstop has baseball in his blood, and he's made good on that promise so far as an amateur.

Willits will probably be the youngest top-end prospect in the class come draft day (he'll be 17 years, 7 months old on draft day), and has drawn comparisons from scouts to a player like Anthony Volpe. As a switch-hitter, Willits is better from the left side and is one of the most polished hitters you'll see at his age. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills, staying within the strike zone and hitting line drives at a high level. He's not someone who many expect to grow above average power, but he should be a well-rounded player at the plate.

Willits is not the same athlete that Carlson is, but he's not far off either. He's a plus runner himself with a good arm and feel for the shortstop position, so he could very well stick at the position long-term. While you bet on the athleticism with Carlson, Willits is a player whose polish at such a young age allows you to dream on what kind of player he can be down the line.

It's not wise to try and predict the timeline of any prospect before they've even been drafted, but even for someone as polished as Willits may be, the 17-year-old would likely be a long-term project for the Cardinals to develop. Again, that's not a bad thing, as if he's the best talent on the board, it is worth the wait. Chaim Bloom's front office in Boston had a ton of success in developing bats, and the Red Sox are now seeing the fruit of that with Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer.

Ultimately, the direction the Cardinals will go in on draft night remains uncertain, but there are quite a few players who seem to be good fits for them as things currently stand. If someone like Holliday or Hernandez were to fall to them, I believe they'd be in strong consideration (especially Holliday), but these five prospects seem to be the strongest candidates for the Cardinals at number five as things currently stand.