5 Cardinals who are facing make-or-break seasons in 2025

I'm sure many of you are sick of hearing the word "reset" associated with the St. Louis Cardinals. Whether you agree with the strategy or not, or believe them when they say this isn't a rebuild, it's the direction they've chosen.

In doing so, the Cardinals have moved certain players (and coaches) into the spotlight and made them the focus of this season. While Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and other key veterans may have been the tone-setters in past seasons, now the young guys will be how the Cardinals determine success or failure in 2025.

While each of these names would have had pressure on them this coming year regardless of the direction the Cardinals' chose for themselves, the heat has really been cranked up by the front office in recent months. If things go well, then they'll likely be key contributors moving forward. But if there is further regression or a failure to bounce back from past woes, then they'll likely be moved on from or knocked multiple levels down the totem pole in St. Louis.

Here are five Cardinals who are facing make-or-break seasons in 2025

Alec Burleson

While Alec Burleson did break out in a big way in 2024, it was a tail of two halves for the now 26-year-old, and considering some of the changes the Cardinals have already made this offseason, Burleson's leash may be short for a player entering his third full big league season.

Let's take a quick look at the production breakdown Burleson had in the first half vs. the second half in 2024:

1st half (316 PA): .288/.320/.494, 17 HR, 53 RBI, .348 wOBA, 125 wRC+
2nd half (321 PA): .242/.306/.320, 4 HR, 25 RBI, .280 wOBA, 80 wRC+

Burleson looked like a force that had been finally unleashed in the first half. All of the excitement the Cardinals had about his batted ball data in the years leading up to 2024 was finally producing results. But then the second half came, and the same issues from before reared their ugly head, and Burleson went from being 25% above league average at the plate with legit power to 20% below league average and struggled to do damage.

If you asked anyone in July, Burleson felt like the obvious choice to man first base for the Cardinals in 2025. Now Willson Contreras has the position on lock, and while Burleson should see plenty of at-bats in 2025 mixed between the DH spot, corner outfield, and first base, his newly found everyday role could soon move back to a part-time or bench role if he's not careful.

Burleson is already a major platoon liability. In 2024, even when he was slugging against righties, he could not hit left-handed pitching to save his life. In 142 plate appearances last year against Southpaws, Burleson slashed .195.,229/.286 (43 wRC+). Compare that to his numbers against right-handed pitching (125 wRC+ on the season), and you see a guy who should solely start against right-handed pitching as things currently stand.

Here's the problem for Burleson though. While left-handed bats are always in high demand, the Cardinals have actually done a really nice job in recent years of collecting young lefties to populate their lineup. And while some of those bats have questions as well (more on that later), there's a world where Burleson could get squeezed out of their lineup against right-handed pitching by 2026 if he's not productive.

Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan represent three left-handed bats already higher on the pecking order than Burleson. Victor Scott II or Michael Siani will mostly play center field, so that's another lefty there. Coming up through the system right now are bats like JJ Wetherholt, Chase Davis, and Jimmy Crooks III, and guess what? All three are left-handed bats.

Mix in the fact that Burleson lacks a true defensive home and is more of a liability than an asset in the outfield, his bat really has to play in 2025 if he's going to be a part of the core moving forward.

Lars Nootbaar

108. 117. 109. Those are the number of games that Lars Nootbaar has been able to play for the St. Louis Cardinals during his first three big league seasons.

It's not due to a lack of production though. Nootbaar posted a 123 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in 2022, 118 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 2023, and 114 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR in 2024, all in limited sample sizes. If Nootbaar is healthy and on the field for sustained stretches, then he is a tremendous asset to the Cardinals. But his health is a big if at this point.

I know, I know, many of you already have Tyler O'Neill at the tip of your tongue, and while it's not completely unfair to compare the two, I do want to point out two major differences in their situations.

First, O'Neill lacked the year-in and year-out production that Nootbaar has had with the Cardinals during his tenure. Outside of top-10 MVP finish in 2021, O'Neill posted a 70 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR in 2020, 99 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 2022, and 97 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR in 2023, the seasons where O'Neill was written in pen as a starting outfielder for the club.

Second, O'Neill's injury history has involved a lot more soft tissue and reoccurring injuries than Nootbaar's, and notably, O'Neill had multiple moments in his time with St. Louis where his effort and desire to play was called into question. If you're upset about how Oliver Marmol handled the base running situation back in 2023, that's fine. But it wasn't just a reaction to that moment. It was a build-up of issues O'Neill had been having for years now, and we even saw him decline to play in Tampa Bay later in the year due to not wanting to risk injury on turf.

There is a reason the Cardinals have been so high on Nootbaar for the last few years. His batted ball profile tells you he's a legit bat, and if he stays on the field, he's proven to be that. The problem is that Nootbaar seems to have this never-ending cycle of a weird injury, slowly working his way back, struggling when he first gets back with the big league club, finding his swing again and looking like a star, and then breaking down again.

While others on this list have real talent and production questions that need to be answered in 2025, for Nootbaar, it's simple. Stay on the field. If he does that, he's shown he'll perform. But if he doesn't, I think there's a real chance he's not in the Cardinals' outfield come 2026.

Oliver Marmol

I hesitate even talking about Oli Marmol due to the sheer amount of backlash I get any time I give Marmol any credit. But here I go.

If they had fired Marmol after the 2024 season, they would have had merit. Marmol has one winning season and playoff appearance in 2022, one of the worst seasons in franchise history in 2023, and a winning but ultimately dissapointing season that saw the Cardinals miss the playoffs for the second straight year in 2024 on his resume.

I would argue the last two seasons are an indictment on the front office more so than Marmol, and actually, the fact that Marmol even managed to win 83 games and finish second in the NL Central with a terrible offense and average rotation should be a feather in Marmol's cap, not something used against him. Even so, expectations are always high in St. Louis, so if Marmol had been fired, very few people would have called foul on that.

The Cardinals are rolling with Marmol for 2025 though, and with his background in player development, the spotlight is especially bright on Marmol to see if he can help young players grow under his leadership and win some games while he's at it.

The main measure for success for Marmol in 2025 should be the development of young players rather than the wins and losses, but those will matter too. If Marmol wants to keep his job long-term, 2025 is going to be an audition for that.

Not just because of his past, but because of the new future the Cardinals have set in place under Chaim Bloom.

You'll notice that John Mozeliak has been very intentional in keeping the slate as clean as possible for Bloom this offseason when it comes to areas of the organization that do not have to do with player development. Most of Mozeliak's regime in the front office are in the final year of their contracts, and the coaching staff can be moved on from as well if Bloom wishes.

We have no idea how Bloom feels about Marmol right now. He may view him as the manager of the future. He may be evaluating him closely with real questions right now. Bloom might already have a new manager in mind for 2026. We don't know. And considering Bloom is a bright baseball mind, he's going to let what happens in 2025 play a role in that decision.

While the Cardinals continue to speak about the importance of 2025 for various young player's futures, it's fair to say Marmol finds himself in that camp as well. If the young players blossom under his leadership, there's a good chance he is here to stay. If not, my guess is he's out after the season.

Jordan Walker

I think people forget that Jordan Walker is still just 22 years old. He's younger than many of the top prospects in baseball right now and is just four years removed from high school.

That doesn't mean Walker is going to be a great Major Leaguer, but it does make his rookie year in 2023 all the more impressive. As a 21-year-old, Walker was 16% above league average at the plate, slashing .276/.342/.445 with 16 HR and 51 RBI in just 117 games. That wRC+ is tied with Adrian Beltre and Cal Ripken Jr. for the 106th best of all-time from a 21-year-old at the major league level. Guys Walker's age are usually figuring things out in Double-A or Single-A at best still, not having success in the Majors. Side note, if you lower the age to 20, which Walker was for the first few months of the season, he'd be top 40 all-time among 20-year-olds.

Still, Walker's regression statically in 2024 and in ability to take steps forward in his ability to get the baseball off the ground has really hampered his development. Walker still looks unsure of himself at the plate and is constantly beaten by the low and away slider. Oh, and his defense is still not great. It wasn't as atrocious as it was in 2023, but still well below average.

2025 is going to be a big year for Walker's development and whether or not he's a part of the Cardinals' future. Just a year ago this time, Walker looked like a future middle-of-the-order bat from the right side who could hit for average and grow into that natural power he has.

Fortunately for Walker, things looked a lot better from a power perspective after he was recalled for the remainder of the 2024 season on August 30th. From September through the last game of the season, Walker slashed .253/.286/.494 with 5 HR and 16 RBI, good for a 115 wRC and a .241 ISO, and his 20.8% HR/FB rate was elite. Walker figured out how to handle fastballs again (.260 BA and .480 SLG), and he mashed breaking balls like he does when he's feeling it (.504 SLG).

His 3.3 BB% and 26.4 K% are both concerning numbers though and he still had a 55.6 GB%. Walker's story is too often a mixed bag of good and bad, and Walker needs to use this offseason to cut down on some of those concerning numbers if he wants to make good on his potential.

The Cardinals aren't going to be satisfied with a Walker who ends up being a league-average hitter. They are right to want so much more from him. The organization needs to learn from its mistakes in handling Walker, but Walker also needs to make the necessary adjustments to become the player he can be. Walker openly admitted the need to be open to change at the end of the season, and that's a very good sign.

If both sides can do that, Walker's future is extremely bright. If not though, Walker may be another bust in a line of top Cardinals' prospects who did not live up to the hype.

Nolan Gorman

Like Walker, Gorman is just a year removed from posting very encouraging numbers at the plate, but the disaster of a season he had in 2024 has left real question marks around his future.

The greatest issue with Gorman's game has always been his strikeout rate, but oh man, did it rear its ugly head in a real way last year. Gorman posted a 37.6 K% in 2024, and if that seems really high, you're right. If Gorman had qualified for leaderboards in 2024, that would broken Chris Davis' record for the worst single-season strikeout percentage in a single season (excluding the COVID-shortened seasons from Miguel Sano and Evan White).

Any time a player is in line for being the worst at something in baseball history, it's hard to imagine them bouncing back from that. Gorman has a lot to overcome mentally as he enters the 2025 season, but if he can do it, we know what kind of damage he can do at the plate.

A clear area for improvement in Gorman's game in 2025 is getting back to mashing fastballs. In 2023, Gorman posted a .282 BA and .569 SLG against fastballs, but that regressed in a big way to a .207 BA and .418 SLG in 2024. There wasn't much of a difference in how he handled breaking balls year to year, so I'm not surprised that Gorman struggled with the fastball when it seemed like things were going so poorly mentally.

Gorman was clearly pressing all year, so it makes sense that opposing pitchers were able to pump fastballs by him when he was overthinking at the plate. Gorman needs to settle down, reset mentally, and just trust his bat when he arrives at camp in 2025. Gorman still posted an elite Barrel% and LA Sweet-Spot% in 2024, so getting back to walking at an elite rate and hitting the ball hard consistently again would do just that.

Gorman's success in 2023 wasn't dumb luck. Yes, he was streaky, but the highs were truly game-breaking and happened consistently. Yes, the lows are frustrating, but they weren't as often as you'd think. 2024 wasn't streaky for Gorman, it was just terrible. I have a hard time believing that is just who he is now, but if he isn't able to move on and forget the bad from 2024, then maybe he is a lost cause.

That is exactly why the Cardinals are wanting to give him 600 plate appearances in 2025. Let Gorman go out there every day and see what happens. If he fails, well, then the Cardinals know that the promise just isn't there anymore. But if he figures things out, Gorman can be a big bat for them moving forward.

There are so many players the Cardinals are going to let sink or swim in 2025. In addition to these five names, guys like Ivan Herrera, Victor Scott II, Matthew Liberatore, and other youngsters are going to have plenty of opportunities to seize the moment.