5 Cardinals the team should go to arbitration with, 2 to extend, and 2 to non-tender

Every year, MLB Trade Rumors puts out incredibly helpful arbitration projections for all 30 MLB teams heading into the offseason. The St. Louis Cardinals have a lot of names to consider extending offers to, going to arbitration with, or non-tendering.

Nine players in total will have the option to go to arbitration with the Cardinals this offseason, including Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Matthew Liberatore, JoJo Romero, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, John King, Andre Pallante, and Jorge Alcala. Some of those names represent the future of the Cardinals' ballclub, others are transition pieces, and a few are caught in limbo regarding their status with the club.

I'm going to go through each of the names of this list and divide them into three categories:

1. Players with whom the team should go to arbitration or settle on one-year deals.
2. Players whom the Cardinals should be looking into long-term extensions for.
3. Players whom the club would be wise to non-tender this winter

Let's dive into each of those categories and how I think the Cardinals should handle this list of names this offseason.

John King and Jorge Alcala are clear non-tender candidates for the Cardinals

Right off the bat, I don't see why it would be necessary for the Cardinals to bring back John King or Jorge Alcala based on their projected arbitration estimates.

King, whom the Cardinals acquired in the Jordan Montgomery/Chris Stratton trade back at the 2023 trade deadline, has been a helpful piece for their bullpen over the last few years, but is coming off a really poor campaign that aligned more with his expected numbers than his previous campaigns have. In 51 appearances, King posted a 4.66 ERA and 5.00 FIP, covering 48.1 innings of work and resulting in a -0.4 fWAR. According to FanGraphs' "Dollars" stat, King was actually worth -$3.5 million in 2025, and has never been worth more than $2 million in value for the Cardinals during his time with the club.

King is projected to earn $2.1 million in arbitration this winter, so unless he's willing to settle for a sizable haircut, I don't see why he makes sense to bring back. King also only has one option remaining, so long-term, he's not a super flexible asset for their roster.

Alcala, who has no options remaining, is also projected $2.1 million in arbitration this offseason, but his 6.22 ERA in 56 appearances for the Twins, Red Sox, and Cardinals this year doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. He has been a productive reliever in prior seasons, including posting a 3.24 ERA in 54 games in 2024, but like King, he has rarely even produced $2 million of value for a club in a given season and was a negative asset in 2025.

For reference, the Cardinals took a $2 million flyer on Phil Maton in spring training last year, and that turned out to be an excellent investment. No, I'm not saying they can just go sign another All-Star caliber reliever for $2 million this offseason, but I'd rather take two flyers on veterans like Maton in free agency than roll the dice with King and Alcala again.

The Cardinals should go to arbitration (or settle on one year deals) with Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Andre Pallante, Nolan Gorman, and Matthew Liberatore

The rest of the names on this list are fascinating for a number of reasons. All have been very productive big leaguers at various points and are still young players, but their futures with the club are all in flux to some extent.

Pallante is probably the one name on this list I could see people pushing back on the idea of extending a contract to, but I think people forget how expensive pitching is, even for someone like Pallante, who is coming off a rough campaign. He made 31 starts for the club this year, posting a 5.31 ERA and 4.68 FIP after performing the best of any Cardinals starter in 2024 once he was inserted into the rotation. Despite the poor numbers, he was still worth $5.8 million per FanGraphs, making his $3.4 million arbitration projection a good number for the Cardinals.

The club lacks pitching depth right now due to the number of injuries they have had to arms in the upper levels of their farm system, so bringing back Pallante as an option is a wise choice. He may not make the rotation, but he's another arm they can turn to if needed, or he may even bounce back in a big way.

Matthew Liberatore was one of the bright spots of the 2025 season for St. Louis, and his $2.8 million arbitration projection is a bargain. I don't think a long-term extension makes sense right now with continued concerns regarding his ability to maintain velocity over the course of a season, so going to arbitration or settling on a one-year deal would be wise.

His childhood friend, Nolan Gorman, struggled at the plate again in 2025 but did have some bright spots along the way. He has far too much potential to just cut and not offer a contract to, so he's worth extending a deal to, even if they explore a trade this offseason. The same goes for Lars Nootbaar, who had a terrible year in 2025 but has been a very productive player in his big league career thus far.

JoJo Romero, who the Cardinals probably should have capitalized on his trade value at the deadline, is for sure worth bringing back in his final year of club control. Romero was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, posting a 2.07 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 65 appearances for the Cardinals. Worth $7.1 million according to FanGraphs in 2025, his $4.4 million projection is a steal for St. Louis.

The Cardinals should extend Brendan Donovan and discuss what a long-term deal would look like for Alec Burleson

I've beat the drum for years now and will continue to do so: Brendan Donovan is worth keeping in St. Louis. Barring a great trade offer, I believe the combination of on-field performance and his off-the-field intangibles and leadership will be key to making this a shorter rebuild than some fans are fearful of.

Donovan was a top player in baseball for the Cardinals this year prior to his turf toe injury, and he continues to grow in his influence in the Cardinals' dugout. As a new young core emerges over the next few seasons, a homegrown leader like Donovan can help the next generation build winning habits, attack each day with intention, and be ready when the time comes for them to ascend into true contention once again.

Alec Burleson, who has spent his entire big league career up until this point as the "odd man out" of the playing time equation, truly ran with his opportunities this year, overtaking multiple members of the Cardinals' young core who were supposed to be "gifted" runway this past season. In 2024, Burleson showed how impactful he can be offensively, but lacked the consistency to be trusted over a full 162-game season. In 2025, he continued to evolve as a hitter and put everything together.

In 139 games, Burleson slashed .290/.343/.459 with 18 HR and 69 RBI in 546 plate appearances. His 124 wRC+ ranked 40th in all of baseball, and the improvements he made defensively made him a quality first baseman and serviceable corner outfielder.

While I feel strongly about Donovan being extended, Burleson is a player I would test the waters on, but am far more likely to settle on a one-year deal with him or go to arbitration. I also think there is a fair argument to shop Burleson on the trade market, given the fact that his defensive limitations hinder his ceiling, and his current offensive profile is likely close to his ceiling. That sounds like a potential sell-high candidate to me.

How the Cardinals manage their arbitration candidates matters. While payroll is set to go down again for the second consecutive year, Chaim Bloom and Bill DeWitt Jr. have committed to being creative this offseason, prioritizing the future but not limiting how they can improve in the midst of that. Handing out smart extensions now, cutting bait with players who aren't worth the dollar they could be paid, and shopping other players on the trade market can set the club up for success in the years to come.