5 Cardinals players most likely to be traded at this year's Winter Meetings

The St. Louis Cardinals have been quiet so far this offseason, but most within the industry expect things to pick up for them on the trade market very soon, with the Winter Meetings possibly accelerating a number of trade scenarios for them.

While John Mozeliak is not expected to go out and make a splashy move in free agency or being "buyers" on the trade market, the Cardinals do have a number of players on their roster who they could shop for varying returns to help accelerate their reset. In the case of most of these names, it would be in the best interest of the club to pursue trades, as holding onto these names does not hold as much value as dealing them would.

Here are the five Cardinals who are most likely to be traded at this year's Winter Meetings

Steven Matz

The oft-injured lefty is being shopped by the Cardinals this offseason, and while Steven Matz's tenure in St. Louis has been a failure, the state of the pitching market still allows for him to be a trade piece with some value.

No, we aren't talking about a return that is going to blow you away, but with a salary of just $12.5 million in 2025, teams will be hard-pressed to find veteran starting pitchers who cost less than Matz or do not require them handing out multi-year deals to acquire.

Matthew Boyd, who has a very similar track record as Matz over the past few years, signed a two-year, $29 million deal with the Chicago Cubs this past week. Frankie Montas just got two years, $34 million from the New York Mets, and Yusei Kikuchi signed a three-year, $63 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels. Pitching is not cheap!

Matz really struggled in 2024 when he was healthy, and he was only able to cover 44.1 innings over the course of the season. While Matz had a very similar season back in 2022, his second season in St. Louis did show some encouraging signs. Matz started the year poorly and was sent to the bullpen as a result. After finding a ton of success there, Matz made seven starts in July and August, boasting a sub-2.00 ERA in his return to the rotation before a season-ending injury.

Overall, Matz finished the 2023 season with a 3.86 ERA in 105 innings pitched. The workload was not good enough, but production would be well worth $12.5 million if he can recapture that and stay on the mound.

A number of teams could find interest in Matz this offseason, depending on how free agency and the rest of the trade market shakes out. Contending teams with large payrolls could see Matz as a somewhat inexpensive addition to bolster their starting pitching or bullpen depth for the 2025 season. Teams who operate on smaller budgets and cannot get into bidding wars for free-agent starters could see Matz as an upside play as well.

Nolan Arenado

Whether it's a Kendrick Lamar song with the Dodgers' name in it or reposting a Dodgers fan's wishes on his Instagram story, Nolan Arenado certainly was not doing anything on social media this week to point fans away from the reality that he'll likely be traded this offseason.

Katie Woo of The Athletic has been on top of this situation for a while now, and although she has reiterated that Arenado has not requested a trade from St. Louis, both sides are open to the idea of it, and the feeling around the league is that Arenado is more likely to be traded than not.

I find it notable that New York Yankees beat writer Randy Miller recently shared that he's heard that both the Dodgers and Yankees are interested in Arenado, and he believes the Dodgers are the team to beat in the sweepstakes. Both teams are in hot pursuit of Juan Soto right now, but once that saga is finalized, either or both may pivot directly to Arenado.

Other teams could certainly enter that conversation along with them, including third base-needy teams like the Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers. Arenado's willingness to play first base could even entice some times like the San Diego Padres or San Francisco Giants.

Arenado's market may develop slowly, but it's been reported by multiple beat writers that the Cardinals expect those talks to pick up steam at the Winter Meetings, and if Juan Soto has signed by then, we could really see a trade happen. The status of free agents like Alex Bregman and Willy Adames could play a role as well.

As of right now, there is still a world where the Cardinals hold onto Arenado, so teams are going to have to make real offers to get him in a deal. It seems like the Cardinals are willing to eat money on his deal to get a better return, something I totally support them doing. At this point, it does seem best for both sides that a trade happens, but the Cardinals don't need to do themselves a disservice here.

Arenado's patience and willingness to play in multiple places are going to be key to this though. If Arenado limits his destinations to just a few spots, it may be difficult for the Cardinals to extract real value. But if Arenado is open-minded about where he could end up, that will help the Cardinals out tremendously. At the end of the day, Arenado has a no-trade clause, so he does control his own destiny.

I expect to see movement happen on the Arenado front at next week's Winter Meetings, with a deal. potentially being finalized as well. If not, we should know by the end of that week who the potential suitors could be and what suitors are bowing out of those conversations. As of right now, I'd be looking at the Dodgers as Arenado's destination, but we'll have to see how things play out over this next week.

Erick Fedde

For as much as Matz's trade value appears to be helped by the state of free agent pitching right now, Erick Fedde's value should be so much better considering the season he is coming off of and the absolute bargain of a contract he is on.

In his first season back from the KBO, Fedde posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the White Sox and Cardinals in 2024. Fedde transformed his arsenal in his year in Korea and has come back a completely different pitcher. Fedde pitched like a borderline number two starter at times this year and should be seen as a really solid number three or overqualified number four starter by other teams right now.

Starters like that, especially ones just hitting their early 30s, tend to get $15m-$20m in free agency over multiple years (see Kikuchi above). In the case of Fedde, the right-hander is making just $7.5 million in 2025, an absolute bargain rate.

Sure, the Cardinals could hold onto him for that very reason. They've been open about not wanting to tank in 2025 and see this reset year as an opportunity to remain competitive while handing over opportunities to young talent and reducing payroll. Fedde would certainly help them remain competitive and be an awesome value for their books, but is that the best use of his value for them next season?

If they truly had expectations to be a playoff team next year, then Fedde would make a ton of sense to keep around. But in reality, the more important thing for this club right now is building toward the future. They could bring back Fedde on an extension, but he feels like more of what they already have, and they are about to have young starters enter their rotation on league minimum salaries.

Fedde makes much more sense as a trade piece in my book. Like Matz before, all kinds of teams would be interested in adding him, except his production, health, and even less expensive salary, which make him way more attractive to potential suitors.

Holding onto Fedde and dealing him later would be risky business from St. Louis. Although he looked great in 2024, it could be an outlier season, or he could get hurt early in 2025 and lose all value. If the Cardinals are worried about having enough innings for next season, then hold onto Matz or Miles Mikolas instead. But I really see no good reason to hold onto Fedde at this point, especially with the kind of value they could get in return.

It would not be some kind of crazy return, but Fedde should easily net the Cardinals a couple of prospects from an organization's top 15, with one of those being even a top seven guy depending on the strength of their system. That means more to this organization right now then the cheap, quality innings he could provide for them next season.

While I expect some of these other names to be moved on this list, Fedde is one who has not be talked about much outside of speculation, and if the Cardinals end up not shopping him around, I think that would be a massive mistake.

Ryan Helsley

Even Ryan Helsley can't help but acknowledge the uncertain future he has in St. Louis right now. In a recent story from MLB.com's John Denton, Helsley opened up about the real possibility he's traded this offseason, and even though he'd love to remain in St. Louis, he's not sure they want to keep him around long-term.

If the Cardinals could pull off a team-friendly extension this offseason, it may be worth considering for an elite talent like Helsley. Normally I am against the idea of big contracts for relievers, but he is special player, and so it's worth exploring.

But in all likelihood, Helsley will be in another uniform next season. With payroll going down in 2025 and the status of their payroll beyond next season uncertain, paying top dollar for a closer doesn't sound like a move they'll be making. While they want to compete in 2025, a closer of Helsley's pedigree is a luxury they can't afford to hold onto if they are just going to let him walk in free agency.

Like Matz, the Cardinals are fielding offers for Helsley this offseason, and again, I'd be surprised if he was not traded. The Winter Meetings could really accelerate his market, especially as clubs begin to pivot to other needs on their team.

Helsley should net the Cardinals the biggest return of any of their likely trade assets. Perhaps a prospect in the top 100 range, but if not that, for sure a strong package of youngsters that can help replenish the Cardinals' system. As I've said with other names on this list, the opportunity to add more young talent to this core as well as clear space for young talent to play is very important considering the state of the organization right now.

If the Cardinals find the offers for Helsley to be underwhelming, they can hold onto him and see if a better deal comes during the season. The risk there though is that if Helsley has a major injury, then the Cardinals lose out on all of that potential value and probably let him walk for nothing in free agency. That feels like too great of a risk to take in my opinion.

The Cardinals' bullpen was a real strength last year, so losing Helsley along with Andrew Kittredge this offseason will be major blows to that unit. Sure, it would be nice to have Helsley back there again one more time, but I would much rather see the Cardinals patch things together next season then hang tight to their superstar closer one more time.

While there are so many potential suitors out there for Helsley, I'd keep an eye on teams like the Orioles, Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers as some of his top destinations. Since Helsley does not have a no-trade clause, the Cardinals can truly make this about finding the highest bidder for his services.

Miles Mikolas

If I were ranking each of these names from most likely to least likely to be traded this offseason, I think I'd actually have Miles Mikolas as the least likely trade candidate.

While that may surprise people, I think it makes perfect sense. As frustrating as he has been to watch the last two seasons, Mikolas is the definition of a rubber arm, someone who can consistently pump out 180-200 innings and make 30+ starts for your club. That may happen with a 5.50+ ERA, but he does cover a lot of workload for the club he's on.

Making over $18 million next season, Mikolas is on a bad contract, and while it could get paid down to the point that another club would take him, it still would not be for any kind of return. The Cardinals still need some veteran arms around next year to eat innings if young guys cannot, so why not keep the guy who has the least amount of trade value to fit that role?

Let's walk through exactly why for just a moment. Let's say both Fedde and Matz are traded, that leaves the Cardinals with Mikolas, Sonny Gray, and Andre Pallante as their only established starters for their rotation. After that, Michael McGreevy is probably the next man up, but he's only had three big league starts in his career so far. After that, you're looking at names like Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo, and Sem Robberse to get opportunities.

At some point, I'd expect Quinn Mathews to jump into that conversation, and potentially names like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe as well. But in the case of these last four names, the Cardinals should not be setting themselves up to "force" those guys into their rotation due to injuries or bad performances. They should just be ready to promote any of them if they earn the opportunity.

If the Cardinals dealt Mikolas too, that's a ton of pressure to put on those young arms I listed above. If they aren't ready, then they'll just be thrown in the fire anyway, and that could hurt development along the way.

Instead, the Cardinals should hold onto Mikolas and have him as insurance. If they need him, use him. If a bunch of those young arms prove they are ready for consistent opportunities, then Mikolas can jump to the bullpen or be designated for an assignment. The Cardinals aren't going to get anything in return for him anyway and the salary relief would be small.

Even though that's what makes the most sense to me, I do believe the Cardinals are open to moving Mikolas, and if the right deal comes, they could pull the trigger. He's still one of their more likely trade candidates for that reason, but I do see a lot of reasons to hold onto him and trade the rest instead.

We'll know soon enough. For now, keep an eye on these five names as the Winter Meetings begin next week.