5 bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Bold predictions are fun. You can be outlandish, unrealistic, and even audacious. It's a way to project one's own feelings and desires onto a team for a season. Will they become real? Rarely. Will they be fun at first? Of course, and that's why fans and pundits enjoy making them.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, they've been all but bold this offseason. Their largest (and only) major-league free agent contract went to right-handed reliever Phil Maton on March 13th. Nary a trade was made except for one that involved cash and a utility man named Michael Helman. "Bold" is not the word I would use to describe the Cardinals' offseason.

While plenty of changes went on under the hood of the organization, such as the additions of Rob Cerfolio, Matt Pierpont, Brant Brown, and Carl Kochan, the surface of the team remains largely unchanged. These behind-the-scenes additions come thanks to future president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom before he takes over the helm.

The departures of Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson barely shifted the needle for the young players. Willson Contreras is shifting to first base, the rotation still features several pitchers over the age of 32, Nolan Arenado is still at third base, and the outfield remains a mess. Ryan Helsley will still be the team's closer in his final contracted season with the club.

Young players with something to prove such as Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera will be given plenty of run in one way or another this year. "Veterans" such as Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and even Masyn Winn will be centerpieces in the lineup each night, too.

The Cardinals have preached a youth movement all offseason, but they're at least starting the year off with top prospects such as Quinn Mathews, Thomas Saggese, Victor Scott II, and possibly even Michael McGreevy in the minors. Room may open up for these youngsters via injuries or underperformance by the end of the year, but the "youth movement" that fans expected isn't coming to fruition just yet.

Add all of this together, and you have a confusing outlook for a team in a confusing time. The Cardinals have been perennial contenders for most of this century. Under John Mozeliak's tenure, they've won several division titles, a World Series, and even two National League pennants. As he enters his final year, things will be a bit different. No longer are the Cardinals aiming for success via wins and losses. Now, they're measuring success by player development. A division title would be nice, but progression of players like Walker, Gorman, Nootbaar, McGreevy, and Burleson is probably more important to the front office this year.

Being bold following an offseason of timid behavior by the organization is challenging. However, it's a necessary task that should be undertaken nonetheless.

Without further ado, let's make some bold predictions that probably won't come true in 2025.

Here are 5 bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals for the 2025 season.

Bold prediction #1: Masyn Winn joins the 20/20 club this year.

Masyn Winn has never hit more than 18 home runs in a season in his career. He's also stolen more than 20 bases only two times in his four-year career. While reaching the 20/20 club isn't necessarily the boldest of predictions, it's certainly something that will be difficult for Winn in his sophomore season.

Using his speed has been something that Masyn Winn has been discussing all offseason. He stole only 11 bases in 2024, a severe drop-off from the 32 he stole in 2021 and the 43 he stole in 2022. It was his rookie year, so it's logical to see him take his foot off the gas regarding the speed of his game. However, Winn's speed was one of his best qualities as a prospect.

We can expect Gold Glove-caliber defense from Winn in his second full season in the majors; that much is true. He boasts one of the game's best arms from the shortstop position, and his ability to cover ground is nearly unmatched.

If Masyn Winn wants to take his game to the next level, he needs to take it up a notch in the speed and power portions of the game.

He has every ability to do so. Winn's 28.8 ft/s spring speed was in the 87th percentile in baseball last year. He was also in the 64th percentile in squared-up percentage last year. A boost in bat speed and hard contact in 2024 will go a long way to bumping his home run numbers up compared to the 15 he hit in 2024.

Reaching the 20/20 club for Masyn Winn is within his reach. He showed that he could steal bags with the best of them as a prospect. Now, it's time for him to put his speed on full display in the majors. Winn also hit 15 home runs last year as a rookie. With more familiarity and comfort heading into his second full season, expect Winn to bop a few more homers to reach the illustrious 20 mark.

Bold prediction #2: Pitchers under the age of 30 will throw more innings as starters than pitchers over the age of 30.

This feels bold simply because of who will be in the rotation to start the year. It's likely that Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz open the year filling out four of the five spots in the rotation. That leaves just one spot for someone who isn't above the age of 32. Andre Pallante or Michael McGreevy will fill that void, but a six-man rotation, something the club is now considering, may open up space for both Pallante and McGreevy.

In 2024, starting pitchers over the age of 30 threw 713.1 innings for the team. Starting pitchers under the age of 30 threw only 167.2 innings. That's a massive discrepancy, one that needs to be fixed this year, especially considering the youth movement that the organization is pushing.

If the Cardinals really want to see what they have in their young players, that split needs to be at least 50/50 this year. That will be tough to achieve with four-fifths of the rotation being occupied by pitchers over 32 years old, but there are very clear paths for young pitchers to find time in the rotation.

Erick Fedde (trade), Miles Mikolas (underperformance), and Steven Matz (injury) could all find themselves out of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation by the end of the season. They could all be supplanted by Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby, and Tink Hence at some point in the year.

I'm not worried about the youth movement in the bullpen, though. Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton are the most veteran pitchers there. JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, Chris Roycroft, and Kyle Leahy are all well under 30 years old. There's plenty of opportunity for pitchers under 30 in the bullpen.

By June, we could be looking at an entirely different starting rotation. Veterans like Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas could be replaced by Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, and Tekoah Roby. The youth movement needs to occur in the rotation, and the sooner it starts, the better.

Bold prediction #3: Nolan Arenado will once again receive MVP votes (but he won't finish the season a Cardinal).

I bundled two bold predictions into one because they both deal with the same player. While the second half of this prediction may not be overly dramatic — it's been rumored for months that Nolan Arenado would be traded — the first half is bold indeed.

It's been two seasons since Nolan Arenado received National League Most Valuable Player votes. He finished third behind teammate Paul Goldschmidt and San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado that year, and there was an argument that he should have won the award. Since then, Arenado has fallen victim to Father Time.

Arenado has posted back-to-back underwhelming offensive seasons with a 108 OPS+ and a 99 OPS+ in 2023 and 2024, respectively. He also failed to reach 20 home runs last year for the first time since 2014. Arenado's offense has plummeted over the last two years.

His defense has also taken a hit. He was worth 14 Outs Above Average (OAA) and he accumulated 19 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2022. Those numbers have fallen to five OAA and one DRS in 2023 and nine OAA and six DRS in 2024. The combination of lackluster offense and less-than-expected defensive output has added to Arenado's precipitous decline since 2022, perhaps the best year of his career.

I expect a turnaround for Arenado in 2025. He won't reach the heights he reached in 2022, but he will have a good enough return to see some down-ballot MVP votes this year. I'm not expecting him to finish in the top ten, let alone the top five, but I'm predicting Arenado to see some votes in 2025.

I also expect Arenado to be traded at some point this year. Be it to the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, or Los Angeles Dodgers, Arenado will probably be wearing a different uniform by the end of the year. Hopefully, his return to offensive and defensive prowess will boost his trade value and net the Cardinals a decent return of prospects or MLB-ready talent. A trade of Arenado will also open playing time for young players like Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Thomas Saggese.

Bold prediction #4: The St. Louis Cardinals will have a player receive Rookie of the Year votes.

In the same way it's been two years since Nolan Arenado received MVP votes, it's also been two years since a Cardinal received Rookie of the Year votes. Mind you, it's been two years since any Cardinal player or coach received votes on a national award.

In 2022, utility man Brendan Donovan finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting behind center fielder Michael Harris II and pitcher Spencer Strider, both players for the Atlanta Braves. Since then, the Cardinals haven't had a single rookie receive a vote. Masyn Winn came close this past year, but the pool of candidates was far too strong, and Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, and Shota Imanaga were the only vote-getters.

This year, I expect the Cardinals to have at least one player receive votes for National League Rookie of the Year. The Cardinals are entering a supposed "youth movement." While true rookies aren't expected to get too much playing time right off the bat, there will be several players who crack the roster throughout the year.

My prediction would be that starting pitcher Michael McGreevy pitches well enough to be recognized this year. I would have predicted Victor Scott II to receive votes, but the club's mismanagement of him last year caused him to lose his rookie status.

Michael McGreevy had a strong introduction to the majors last year. He threw 23 innings with a 1.96 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He's continued that success this spring with a 1.54 ERA, eight strikeouts, and a 0.771 WHIP through 11.2 innings. McGreevy's numbers have forced management's hand, and they're considering moving to a six-man rotation to make space for the right-handed pitcher.

Beyond McGreevy, prospects such as Quinn Mathews, Gordon Graceffo, and Thomas Saggese could play well enough given playing time to see some NL ROY votes in 2025. Space needs to be cleared for these young players, but there is a path for them to the majors this year.

The Cardinals need to see growth from their prospects. Having rookies be recognized nationally will go a long way towards that growth, and it will help alleviate some of the concerns that fans have for the future of the team.

Bold Prediction #5: The Cardinals will have a new manager by the end of the year, but Oli Marmol will stay on the staff.

Oli Marmol is entering the final year of his contract following the extension last year winter. He's under a lot of pressure from at least the fans and probably management to show some form of progress and growth this year. Whether it be progress via the success of young players or progress via a division crown and a playoff berth, progress is essential to Marmol's future with the club.

There's also pressure coming from outside the organization to find a new manager.

Former players and Cardinal legends Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols are seeing plenty of success as they forge their own path on the bench of the baseball diamond. Pujols led his team, Leones de Escogido, to the Dominican Winter League title this past winter and a Caribbean Series championship. He's received glowing reviews from former managers, and he himself has said that "it won't be long" until he's a manager in Major League Baseball.

Molina, on the other hand, has seen as much international success as a manager. He managed Team Puerto Rico in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, he's managed in the Dominican Winter League, the Roberto Clemente, Professional Baseball League, and the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League. He's found success at each stop.

The outside pressure paired with Oli Marmol's results these last two years make it tough to envision him finishing the year as the club's manager. If the Cardinals want to maintain the legacies of players like Molina and Pujols (and keep them away from enemies), they will have to hire one of these two future Hall of Famers.

Former players becoming managers has been problematic in the past throughout baseball. Beloved former players could have their reputation tainted, as managers are often the scapegoat for a team's lack of success. Furthermore, it can be challenging for former players to change their expectations. They saw success a certain way, so current players should mirror those methods as well. This process doesn't work for everyone.

The hope is that either Yadier Molina or Albert Pujols is able to break this mold and find success as managers similar to how they did as players.

If Marmol is replaced mid-season, I would expect him to stay with the organization one way or another. He's received glowing reviews from players both past and present, and he is known to have a strong rapport with young players.