4 Cardinals players it is already fair to be worried about

One of the things that makes baseball so special is the marathon a team embarks on.

At the time of writing this, the St. Louis Cardinals are 20 games into their 2025 campaign, which marks just 12% of the games they'll play in the regular season. With 142 games left to play, it is far too early to draw full conclusions, but we are starting to have large enough sample sizes to at least have conversations now about where things are trending.

Today, I want to take a look at four Cardinals whom I think it is fair to at least be worried about at this point in the season. I'm not here to write any of them off, but it is time that we take a look at both their counting stats and the underlying metrics that tell a concerning story so far this year.

Here are four Cardinals who it is already fair to be concerned about

Ryan Fernandez

By the time this gets published, I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan Fernandez is already heading to Memphis to work through the funk he's in.

Things have gone about as poorly as they possibly could for Fernandez to start 2025. Making nine appearances thus far, he's allowed runs in five of those outings, with nine earned runs in total already this year. While he was a major reason why the Cardinals' bullpen was so good in 2024, it's clear that things have been trending downwards for Fernadez for a while now.

Last year, Fernandez posted a 2.08 ERA in 43.1 innings of work during the first half of the season. He joined Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero as a fearsome quartet holding things down for St. Louis at the back end of games, but the cracks showed in a major way during the second half. During those 23.1 innings, Fernadez allowed 16 earned runs, leading to a 6.17 ERA.

So far, Fernandez actually seems to be having more success with his fastball than he did last season, so this doesn't seem to be a matter of his arm being burned out, but Fernandez has to get his slider back on track if he's going to be successful again. In 2024, that pitch was a +5 run value for him, with hitters posting just a .182 batting average and .295 slugging percentage while his fastball was hittable. But in 2025, that slider is already a -3 run value for him, and opposing hitters are mashing it for a .438 average and .688 slug.

I'd love to see Fernandez head down to Memphis to work on that pitch in a lower-stakes environment, and hopefully return to the club as soon as possible. Right now, Fernandez is hurting the club with his performances, and while there aren't great options waiting in the wings, I'd much rather have him right the ship for himself than try to continue to scrape by. We'll see how much longer the Cardinals will be patient with him.

Jordan Walker

Things were going better for Jordan Walker this season out of the gates, but it has quickly regressed back to how he looked last season.

Walker has seen an uptick in his average (.239) and on-base percentage (.299), but his slugging percentage is at an all-time low (.338), ultimately still grading out as a well below-average hitter this year (84 wRC+).

The Cardinals don't want Walker to aspire to be a fine bat, they expect him to be a difference maker. He's far from that right now. I'm not doubting his ability to become that just yet, but I think we need to be honest about how much he is still struggling.

Walker cannot get by with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a .099 ISO. Those are really bad numbers for anyone, but especially a bat you had such high hopes for. Walker is among the worst in baseball at hitting the ball hard consistently, barreling up the baseball, is chasing pitches at a very high rate, whiffing at an even worse rate, and his walk rate has regressed back down to well below-average.

Yes, let's remember that Walker is still just 22 years old, and Brant Brown is likely still working with him on plenty of things. Walker seemed very excited and receptive to the coaching he was receiving this offseason, so I do not doubt he is working hard to get back on track.

On the positive side of things, Walker has actually looked a lot better defensively this year. He's actually grading out positively in outs above average thus far, and while his jumps still leave a lot to be desired at times, Walker has mostly avoided disaster plays in the outfield while actually making positive, difference-making plays as well.

Obviously, that's a great step in the right direction for a player with terrible metrics defensively over the last two years, but I could also see this helping him at the plate eventually as well. Most players agree that what happens in the field impacts them at the plate, and if he's not constantly worrying about terrible plays he's making in the field, it can help him find more comfort in the batter's box.

Like I said already, I'm not ready to give up on Walker, but he's certainly trending toward "Nolan Gorman territory" for me now. He's not there yet, but if things are not moving up and to the right for him by the middle of the season (and especially the end of 2025), he'll be a guy who you can no longer just guarantee playing time. Like Gorman this year, he'll have to start earning that runway.

For now, the Cardinals should continue to commit to their original plan of giving Walker the ability to play every day. We could very well look back at his numbers again in June and see that all he needed was time to figure things out. Until then though, it's more than fair to worry about Walker. It has been a year and a half since we've seen the really positive results that got us all excited about his upside.

Erick Fedde

On the surface, Erick Fedde has been effective for the Cardinals in 2025. He has a 1-2 record thus far, but his 3.43 ERA is what you hope to see from him, especially when you take into account that one of those starts was a complete blow-up in Boston, while he's allowed just one earned run in his other 12 innings of work.

Here's the thing though, if you look beneath the surface, you'll see a lot of warning signs in Fedde's game this year. Yes, even in his six innings of no-hit baseball against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

First, Fedde's FIP (4.89), xERA (5.00), xFIP (5.52), and SIERA (5.89) are all drastically higher than his ERA thus far, indicating a fair bit of luck and unsustainable success based on the way he's actually pitching thus far. If you continue to look deeper, things don't look good.

Fedde has posted below-average barrel percentages, hard-hit percentages, and average exit velocity numbers from opposing hitters, and yet batters have just a .183 BABIP against him. That's not going to continue if he's allowing hard contact at the rate he is right now.

On top of that, while Fedde has never been someone to miss a ton of bats, he's doing even less of that right now, striking out just 12% of opposing hitters and ranking in the 25th percentile in chase% and 14th percentile in whiff%. If he can't miss bats, and when they hit the ball, it's hit hard often, that's going to come back to bite him in a big way.

Lastly, while Fedde figured out his walk issues for the 2024 season, he's back to walking hitters at an alarming rate, allowing 4.29 free passes per nine innings right now.

Do you see the cause for concern?

He's not missing bats, hitters are making hard contact consistently, and he's giving up walks at a high rate. Fedde has got to improve in multiple areas if he wants to remain effective from here on out.

While Cardinals fans seem to be overreacting about the Tommy Edman trade still, Fedde regressing hard this year would certainly tip the scales in their direction. All offseason, I clamored for the Cardinals to trade Fedde. I was not saying regression was for sure coming, but I was certainly aware it could happen. Sure, Fedde could fetch them a nice return at the deadline if he's pitching well, but man, the risk of waiting until then always felt like too much. Multiple teams were interested in Fedde this offseason, and the Cardinals decided not to pull the trigger.

Parlaying Fedde into a solid return this offseason could have strengthened their future plans, but instead, they wanted to feel better about their chances of winning this year, and prioritizing that was always a mistake.

Fedde has the talent to turn things back around here soon, and I'm certainly hoping we see him do so. But for now, the regression many feared would happen is showing up in his game.

Alec Burleson

When it became clear that Nolan Arenado was going to be a Cardinal for at least the near future, the club knew it was going to have to make some tough decisions regarding the playing time of various names on their roster. Many believed that Alec Burleson would be the odd man out of the everyday lineup (barring Lars Nootbaar playing in center field), but instead, it was Nolan Gorman who started the year on the bench for the Cardinals.

Burleson has been the Cardinals' primary DH against right-handed pitching while filling in at first base as needed as well. Last year, Burleson posted a 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a 125 wRC+ as a whole during the first half for St. Louis. He really struggled against lefties all year long, but the damage he could do against righties was a real asset to the team. He squared up the baseball almost the best in baseball and struck out just 12.8% of the time, and all of his expected numbers looked great for the second year in a row.

In 2025 though, those expected numbers have taken a major dip. He's yet to barrel a single baseball, he's not hitting the ball particularly hard, and the power has been zapped from his bat. He has yet to hit a home run this year, and that's coming off a second half where he hit just four home runs in 231 plate appearances. This is a far cry in production from the guy who slugged 17 home runs in his first 340 plate appearances in 2024.

If Burleson can't find that power stroke consistently again, it is going to be very difficult for him to produce enough offensively to warrant playing time over Thomas Saggese or allowing Gorman another shot at consistent time. Burleson is a negative defensively in the outfield, and while he's fine at first base, you need more offense at that position to be a viable player.

Burleson's ability as a pure hitter gives me confidence that things will sort out eventually. Is he going to be able to be who he was in the first half last year? I'm not sure. But I also don't see him as a well below average hitter for the long-haul either.

We've already seen some injuries sort out playing time a bit, but once Masyn Winn is back here in the next few days, the Cardinals are going to have some difficult decisions to make on a daily basis. Saggese has been far too productive and useful to send down to Memphis, and with the way he is hitting so far, it'll be difficult to have Burleson and Gorman playing over him consistently. But at the same time, we know what those two can do when they are right at the plate.

It is fair to be worried about what we've seen from Burleson since the second half of 2024, and while I do think we'll see him get things back on track soon, he may see diminished playing time in the meantime.