3 Cardinals whose trade value has risen, 2 who've seen it plummet to start the season

Dating back to the St. Louis Cardinals' end-of-season press conference last fall, the expectation was that the club would be trading away multiple players from the Major League roster to "reset" for the future. That did not happen.

You've heard the story countless times already, so I won't rehash it for you. Every player who was rumored to be on the trade block is still in St. Louis, and their lone free-agent addition of the offseason came toward the end of spring training in Phil Maton.

As the month of May begins, the Cardinals are three games below .500 with a 14-17 record and four games back of the National League Central lead. There is plenty of time for them to establish themselves as a threat in the playoff race this year, but I think most people expect them to be sellers come July (or at least believe they should be).

Because of that, I think it is worth taking a look at five players who could be dealt at the deadline this year and whether their trade value has gone up or down since the season began. I will only be focusing on players that seem like sure bets to be on the block if they sell at the deadline, so I did not include young members of their core like Brendan Donovan or Lars Nootbaar, and I also did not include veterans like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray who have no-trade clauses and have stated they would like to stay in St. Louis. Sure, that could change, but for now, let's focus on the five players who could actually be on the move.

3 Cardinals who have seen their trade value rise, 2 who have seen their trade value fall since the 2025 season began

Nolan Arenado's trade value has risen

One player the Cardinals did aggressively shop this offseason was third baseman Nolan Arenado, who, when approached by the front office this past offseason about a potential trade, stated that he would be open to a move, but only to a select group of teams.

The Cardinals did have a trade in place with the Houston Astros, but their trade of Kyle Tucker days prior and the reality that they would be letting Alex Bregman walk in free agency caused Arenado to get cold feet. The Boston Red Sox were a serious suitor, but once they signed Bregman, they were off the table. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres were other clubs that Arenado wanted to play for, but nothing materialized with those teams.

Coming off a down year in 2024 and a rough end to his 2023 campaign, Arenado wasn't exactly the most desirable trade asset on the market. Yes, he's likely a future Hall of Famer and still played great defense at the hot corner, but he had gone from a true middle of the order bat to basically league average with little power in his bat, and that did not sit well with teams who would be taking on a signifcant portion of his remaining salary.

While the Cardinals continued to be open to a potential trade of Arenado all the way through camp, once it became clear that he would be starting the 2025 season with the Cardinals, the best possible outcome for both sides was a bounce-back season from Arenado, and so far, he appears to be having one.

No, he's not his old self, but Arenado has seen a significant uptick in his OBP, SLG, wOBS, wRC+, BB%, and ISO, and is on pace for the highest fWAR he has had since 2022, all while also striking out less than he has in his entire career at just 6.8%.

If Arenado keeps up this pace for the next two months, the Cardinals are going to have a lot of suitors come July who would like to add Arenado's services. No, they won't get a top prospect in return at this rate, but I actually do think he has shown enough so far that, if this trend continues, he will bring in more value than he would have before.

On top of that, there seems to be an even greater need from some of those teams that were on his "list" than there was this offseason. Max Muncy has been bad for the Dodgers, third base is by far the weakest position in the Yankees' lineup, and the Padres could really use a boost to their lineup.

I do think the Cardinals will have a better chance of pulling off a deal with a team from his list come July, and maybe he'll even expand that further to other teams that are contending late into the summer. But for now, the thing that matters the most is that Arenado looks a lot better this year, and that is essential for driving trade interest.

Erick Fedde's trade value has dropped

I hate to say I told you so, but I, along with others, was clamoring for the Cardinals to trade Erick Fedde all offseason. So while I'm not going to say that to any of you, I'll gladly tell the Cardinals "I told you so" until proven otherwise.

I am not an Erick Fedde "hater." I actually think he is a pretty good pitcher. I liked the trade for him last deadline. I think he's a valuable player on the contract he is on. All of those things can be true, and I can also believe it was a major mistake for the Cardinals not to trade him this offseason.

Fedde, in his return to Major League Baseball after a brief stint in the KBO, was one of the more valuable starters in baseball last year, starting 31 games while posting a 3.30 ERA in the process. Making just $7.5 million a year, he provided the White Sox and Cardinals so much more value than what some free agents from this past offseason produced who got $20 million dollar annual values to show for it.

We know at least two teams were interested in acquiring Fedde this offseason, and my guess is that list is actually a lot longer. No, I don't think the Cardinals could have received a "haul" for Fedde, but with how thin their farm system is right now, value for the future should have been prioritized.

Yeah, I get it, they wanted to "surprise" people this year, and having Fedde should help with that, and yeah, he could be valuable at the deadline, but that required another great season from him this year. Well, he's been mediocre thus far, and I am afraid that the Cardinals are now going to completely miss the opportunity to recoup value from him.

Fedde's ERA thus far has ballooned to 4.68, his xERA is even worse at 4.86, and he's seen his walk rate double while his strikeout rate has almost been cut in half. There is a lot in his profile that suggests he is going to see a steep regression from his production last season, and that is a problem.

Yes, he's had some "good" outings this year, but the underlying metrics tell you that he has not been good this year, and if we don't see him turn a corner here soon, I really don't think he'll be a valuable asset for the Cardinals to move this year.

Steven Matz's trade value has risen

While I certainly was not against the Cardinals trading Steven Matz this past offseason, I preferred that they prioritize moving Fedde for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Fedde would have brought the Cardinals more value in a trade, and that is the thing that mattered most in those decisions. But second, Matz's value was basically at an all-time low, so it wouldn't hurt to see if he can build any of that back during the 2025 season to become a real trade candidate.

So far, Matz has done just that, thriving in a swingman role for the Cardinals' pitching staff that has seen him make seven relief appearances and two starts to begin the 2025 season. Across his 24 innings of work, Matz has posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, striking out 20 batters and notching two wins and one save already.

Again, we aren't talking about some crazy valuable player here, but everyone wants pitching, and when the trade deadline comes around, Matz will be a name that teams are calling the Cardinals about. Ever since the addition of the third Wild Card, the list of "sellers" at deadlines has shrunk dramatically and the list of buyers has grown, so there will be a hot market to add additional pitching, whether that's bullpen arms or rotation pieces, and Matz could fit either for a club.

Matz doesn't need to sport a sub-2.00 ERA to maintain that kind of value, but man, it sure helps. The way he is pitching right now, if he sustains most of it going into July, he won't be one of the top arms, but he will be one of the more sought-after ones for sure. The Cardinals signed Matz to his four-year deal for a reason prior to the 2022 season — when he's right and healthy, he can be a middle-of-the-rotation arm. So far this year, he has really shone, and even if teams see him as a bullpen arm come July, that'll still carry value for the Cardinals.

It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle Matz leading up to July. If injuries happen to the rotation, he is ready to slide in and take a spot at any moment, but if they continue to have other options to turn to, will they keep him stretched out or use him in more high-leverage spots? So far, he's mostly been treated as a long man and sixth guy in the rotation at times, and that could be how they keep things moving for the rest of his time on the roster.

Ryan Helsley's trade value has dropped

Look, this could easily change in just a week or so, but as of right now, I think it is fair to say that Ryan Helsley's trade value has taken a substantial hit to start the year.

I do not believe it will stay that way, but for now, that's just the reality of the situation. Fresh off leading Major League Baseball in saves last season, Helsley has already blown two of his six save opportunities after just coughing up four of his 53 opportunities in 2024. Helsley has only pitched in 10 games so far due to the Cardinals' bullpen woes and not getting the ball to him in the ninth inning, and so I wouldn't be surprised if some of his rust has come from being used infrequently out of the bullpen.

There are concerning numbers that I do believe are worth monitoring for the time being. Obviously, his ERA is up to 3.60 as compared to 2.04 in 2024, 2.45 in 2023, and 1.25 in 2022. Helsley's xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all well over 4.00 to start the year, and has things currently stand, he is actually a negative fWAR player at -0.1.

Even more concerning than that to me right now is some of the under-the-hood issues we have seen so far. After his slider graded out as one of the best in baseball last year, it has only been a slightly above-average pitch so far in 2025. His fastball velocity is still there, but it has been a below-average and very hittable pitch through 10 appearances. Helsley saw a drop in his K% last year from the mid-to-high 30s in 2022 and 2023 to 29.7% in 2024, and now that is all the way down to 22.7% so far in 2025. Helsley's walk rate has jumped by almost 10% from 8.6% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025. His home run to fly ball rate has jumped from 4.5% to 12.5% as well.

Yes, small sample sizes, I totally understand that. I would bank on Helsley figuring things out. But it's also fair to say that some of the nature of being a reliever is smaller sample sizes anyway. The Cardinals holding onto Helsley this year was risky for a number of reasons, and while I was far more concerned about a potential injury occuring, so far the real issue has been his actual on-field performance.

Helsley would be a massive trade piece for the Cardinals at the 2025 trade deadline if he can get back to pitching like himself here soon. Relievers always seem to fetch more at the deadline than any other time of year, and when Helsley is right, he is one of the best closers in all of baseball. It would be a huge gut punch for the Cardinals if this regression continues throughout the season, so hopefully his April struggles are just a blip on the radar compared to how he performs the rest of the season.

Phil Maton's trade value has risen

The Cardinals' only free agent signing of the winter is already subject to trade rumors, and while he might not be very happy about it, it's the right posture for the Cardinals to have as the season goes on.

When it comes to the Cardinals' frozen offseason, there were only two things that really upset me. First was their unwillingness to move pieces from the roster. Arenado, Contreras, and Gray were all in their own unique situations because of their no-trade clauses, but Fedde, Helsley, and others could have easily been moved. They chose not to.

I was not upset that the Cardinals were not aggressive in adding to their roster for 2025, except for the bullpen. Their unwillingness to add relievers to that mix was malpractice on multiple fronts.

First, even though I disagree with their desire to "surprise" people this year and try to win more games than most fans expect them to, they needed to fortify the bullpen in order to do that. They were blessed with an incredible group last year, but if we know one thing about bullpens, it is that they are not reliable year over year. They are easily the most volatile group in baseball, and so trusting mostly the same group to get the job done again was a mistake.

Second, one of the easiest ways to build value for the future as a rebuilding or resetting club is by adding low-cost relievers in hopes of flipping them at the trade deadline. Sometimes, teams will strike gold and flip a one-year, low-cost reliever and get a core piece for their future in return (like when the Royals got Cole Ragans for Aroldis Chapman). Most of the time, clubs don't get a star like that in return, but any prospects or value for a future year they can receieve is a major win.

So far in 2025, Maton has been a steal for the price they signed him for during spring training. In 15 appearances (12.2 innings of work), Maton has a 2.47 ERA and 1.47 FIP, boasting a 30.4 K% and posting a 0.95 WHIP in the process. He's been one of the best relievers in all of baseball, and he'll be someone a ton of contenders are coveting come the trade deadline (or even before that).

Maton has been pretty vocal about the chip he has on his shoulder from teams not being interested in him this offseason, and that is working out in the Cardinals' favor in a big way. All 29 other teams have to be shaking their heads at the miss it was not to sign him, and there'll likely be 10+ teams who are looking to add him to their bullpen via trade as the season moves along.

If Maton sees regression, he'll still be a trade chip for the Cardinals. But as of right now, he has raised his stock by a lot, and that is good news for this Cardinals organization.