St. Louis Cardinals: An early look at an approach for the offseason

Step One: Arbitration

In approaching the offseason, we need to first start looking at settling arbitration deals for our young talent. Jack Flaherty and Harrison Bader are both names who stand out and could receive sizeable paydays this offseason. With Flaherty already being an elite tier pitcher, he could hurt the Cardinals’ pockets a little bit.

Assuming the Cardinals follow suit of similar pitchers, Flaherty should be in for about a $7M payday. Harrison Bader, Jordan Hicks, and John Brebbia should be able to account for about $6M combined. Adding the money from our current pool, this gives St. Louis about $47M remaining to spend before that $175-$180M threshold.

Step Two: Extensions

The Cardinals have a few players that will hit free agency this offseason, including Future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina. Though Molina stated in the past that he would retire after the 2020 season, he has now had a change of heart and wants to stick around in St. Louis, as long as the feeling is mutual from the Cardinals.

If I were the Cardinals, I wouldn’t bring him back unless he agrees to take a significant pay cut. Though Molina has done a ton for St. Louis and it is very well appreciated; he has lost a major step offensively, and his bat is starting to become a liability in the lineup. With top prospect Andrew Knizner patiently waiting for his opportunity, this could be a good time to let Molina walk.

Knowing the Cardinals and how overtly loyal they are to their players (excluding Albert Pujols), they will probably give Molina an unnecessary payday, docking about $12M from the payroll.

Another player hitting free agency is INF Brad Miller. The Cardinals signed Brad Miller towards the end of Spring Training as a depth piece, and he has done a pretty solid job for the ballclub this season; hitting a .242/.373/.477 line with seven home runs. He started the season looking like Mike Trout but has since struggled and regressed.

Throughout Miller’s career, he has always been more of a journeyman, playing for six different teams in eight seasons. So, I would expect Miller to test free agency waters and find a new home this offseason.

The last player hitting the market will be Adam Wainwright. We haven’t heard much about whether the 39-year-old will sign his third consecutive one-year deal or hang up the cleats. He is in the midst of a very solid season though, putting up a 3.05 ERA and a 3.81 FIP. His curveball has treated him very well this season.

Mark Saxon of The Athletic stated in a radio interview that he couldn’t see Wainwright going out pitching this well and that he might want to give it another season. Bringing back Wainright wouldn’t be an awful idea, so I believe that giving him a contract similar to the one that he had received last offseason is more than fair for both sides, so we will dock $5M from the payroll.

Combining the 2021 salaries of Wainwright and Molina, the Cardinals now have $30M reserved for free agents and the trade market if they wish to utilize that.