St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk and Kyle Schwarber, a tale of two bangers

The St. Louis Cardinals have Randal Grichuk and the Chicago Cubs have Kyle Schwarber; what happens to each in his respective club is yet to be seen.

So that’s the history. The most significant question in comparing these two is what comes next, and how to assess their respective worth to their big-league teams. Will the St. Louis Cardinals have a plan for Grichuk for the future? Will the Cubs cut ties with Schwarber?

For Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals management has now seen parts of four years in the Show. They know several things that can be slotted into the “fairly sure” category.

One, that he can hit with tremendous bat velocity and go yard at a great clip.

Two, that he can slot into a major-league outfield with zero problem, as his range and arm can readily fill any of three positions at an average or above level.

But what they also know is that there has been zero change in his ability to lay off certain balls outside the strike zone. None. No change. Even with his uptick in average the last couple months, which we hope he can retain (but have doubt about), he has once again proven unable to avoid chasing in certain zones, and walks almost not at all.

That means the St. Louis Cardinals most likely recognize they have a high-power, high-strikeout, fleet afoot outfielder who isn’t dependable enough at the plate to slot into any batting order spot above the six hole.

But can they afford that luxury when the team has so many other outfield options, and has few proven difference-makers in the lineup that can sustain a substantial OPS?

To answer that question, we return to Schwarber. He appears to have returned to his capable offensive role, with a somewhat modest average offset by his ability to take walks.

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More importantly, he occupies a role on a team that has two perennial MVP candidates, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, along with other significant lineup pieces. To find a place for Schwarber in a lineup like that, the risk is lower than it is for the Cards in making room for Grichuk.

Chicago’s challenge with Schwarber is far more on the defensive side. While he’s made some isolated nice plays, he remains a clear liability in the field (a -1.1 dWAR for 2017 bears that out).

The Cubs’ choice, then, is not likely going to be made on the basis of a temporary offensive blip this year, but rather on whether his batting potential outweighs the known risk when he takes the field.

The Cards and Cubs have very interesting choices when it comes to these two players. Each has flaws that require their respective team to weigh the costs and benefits of their continued presence. A lot of that has to do with the surrounding complement of players.

In the case of the Cubs, I would say that it’s still on balance likely worth it to stick Kyle in left field, and, like the late days of Matt Holliday‘s career, hope for the best and find suitable late-inning replacements.

Next: The impact of coaching

For the Cards, the Grichuk question, given the shortage of mid-lineup difference-makers, remains a much closer call. With the team being remade and so many moving outfield parts, whether Randal stays or goes at this point seems a murky proposition.