NLDS Preview: Cubs vs. Cardinals Part One

Jul 8, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta (center) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

We are all set with the matchup of the century. As crazy as this rivalry has been, this marks the first time the Cardinals and Cubs will have matched up against each other. I am here to preview this historic NLDS. Editor Chris Gigley, has already given you an idea of how the Cardinals can beat the Cubs, let’s take a look at this series as a whole and compare the two teams to each other.

Let’s start this NLDS preview, with the position players first and then tomorrow I will give you a preview of the pitching side of things.

Jul 8, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher

against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher 

Cardinals: Yadier Molina/Tony Cruz – The reason I listed both backup and starter here is that we all know that David Ross will start game one with Jon Lester on the mound, and it is still unknown whether or not Yadier Molina will be starting game one of the NLDS. Experience is not overrated in the postseason, Molina has played in 86 career postseason games.

Which, according to Derrick Goold is the most by any NL catcher ever. I wouldn’t expect too much from Molina offensively, despite his career .290 average in the postseason. That is fine. The Cardinals need him out there defensively and anything he can offer at the plate is a plus at this point. 

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Cubs: Miguel Montero/David Ross – Montero/Ross combination is clearly one sided in terms of offense as Montero has 15 homers in 113 games this season with a .248 average. Ross, does have the postseason experience from his time in Boston, but he won’t start unless Lester is starting as Ross has 1 homer and 9 RBI in 79 games played this season.

Advantage: Clear advantage goes to the Cardinals if Yadier Molina starts. However, it easily switches to the Cubs if Yadi is unable to go. I shouldn’t have to tell Cardinals fans why Molina is the better catcher, but in case you are a Cubs fan and somehow think Molina is overrated, look at this article in the St. Louis Post Dispatch regarding Molina’s importance.

Oct 2, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman

(44) hits a 2 RBI single during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

First Base:

Cardinals: Stephen Piscotty/Mark Reynolds: Not sure who we will see here, my vote goes to Piscotty and his .305 average and 7 homers, but he could be playing in the OF.

Cubs: Anthony Rizzo – Anthony Rizzo easily had his best overall season as a Cub this year and will be a solid MVP candidate and would win the award if it weren’t for that Bryce Harper guy again. Rizzo finished the season with a slash of .278/.387/.512, an OPS of .899, a wRC+ of 145. He also, belted out 31 homers and drove in 101.

Advantage: Cubs. It is unclear who will be the Cardinals’ starter at first throughout the series, but I can guarantee you that it won’t be anyone better than Anthony Rizzo even if it is Stephen Piscotty.

Jun 27, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman

Kolten Wong

(16) reacts after tagging out Chicago Cubs right fielder

(29) to end the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Second Base:

Cardinals: Kolten Wong – Wong, as I mentioned on Tuesday has had a really tough second half. He wound up finishing the season with a .262 average and 11 homers, a total that could have been much better, but still not too bad for the second year player.

Cubs: Starlin Castro – Castro had a very similar season with a slightly higher average at .265 and 11 homers as well. Castro is normally a short stop, but his midseason struggles booted him from that position.

Advantage: This one is pretty tough to figure.  However, taking recent play completely out of it and comparing the two players’ overall season side by side – the advantage slightly goes to the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong. The best statistic to look at here would be Fangraphs’ wRC+, Wong has a wRC+ of 96 (about average), whereas Castro has a below average wRC+ of 80 this season. Wong’s without a doubt the better defender at second, so the advantage is more clear at this point, but still pretty close.

Shortstop 

Cardinals: Jhonny Peralta – Peralta was clearly the first half MVP of the Cardinals and finished the year with a slash of .275/.334/.411 and an OPS of .745. Peralta had a dismal second half and was clearly a little sluggish as he had a .245 average and only five homers in the second half.

Cubs: Addison Russell – Russell had a slightly better second half with eight homers and a .255 average and is a bit better defensively than Peralta.

Advantage: Right now at this point in these two players’ careers the advantage goes to the veteran Jhonny Peralta and the Cardinals. Peralta has the slight edge here with his experience and his overall wRC+ of 105 which is above average. With a week of rest, I really expect Peralta to return to form. If you are a Cubs fan foaming at the mouth, because of Russell’s better second half. Chill out, Addison Russell is going to be really really good and probably will be better than Jhonny Peralta in a few years. Peralta is actually a good model for Russell in the future.

May 5, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman

(13) runs after hitting a three run home run off of Chicago Cubs starting pitcher

(28) during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Third Base 

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter – I’ve covered Carpenter twice this week, it was a really good season for the Cardinal third baseman, look for this good season to continue into the playoffs.

Cubs: Kris Bryant – Hold your horses Cubs fans and MLB social media accounts, Kris Bryant is not great yet. Yes, I am a Cardinals fan and yes this is a Cardinals site, no I am not being a homer here. I truly enjoy young prospects coming up and doing well and it is neat for the Cubs to have Kris Bryant. However, the guy has a 30.6% K rate and just missed finishing the season with 200 strikeouts at 199. 

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In 75 games on the road he only hit 5 homers and had an average of .243, at home he hit .311 with 21 home runs and a BABIP of .390 which is simply unsustainable, that is some serious home cooking there. For Cubs’ fans complaining that Wrigley played like a pitcher’s park this year, the numbers don’t lie, Wrigley is one of the easiest parks to hit the ball out in. Guess where the first two games are? On the road, in one of the toughest parks for right handers to hit in. With Lackey or Garcia/Lynn on the mound expect the struggles to continue.

Advantage: Cardinals. Matt Carpenter has the experience of beating the best pitcher in the game in the postseason more than once. It was no fluke. Despite the lower average this year, Matt Carpenter is without a doubt one of the best hitters in the game. Defensively, Bryant is a better 3B, but please Jerry Crasnick, he’s no Scott Rolen who averaged a 13.3 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) throughout his career according to Fangraphs.

Oct 7, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder

(12) hits an RBI single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning in the National League Wild Card playoff baseball game at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Left Field

Cardinals: Matt Holliday – I really am not sure what to expect from Matt Holliday. If he his healthy and can run around in the OF fine, he’s a huge upgrade in LF and has the postseason experience to lead this club and potentially could be a series MVP.

Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – Kyle Schwarber is legitimately a really good hitter and he absolutely hit a monster shot last night into the Aleghany. Like Kris Bryant and any young power hitter not named Albert Pujols, Schwarber struggles with the strikeout. Schwarber has the left handed power that could change the makeup of a game/series.

Advantage: Cubs. This is a really hard one. I am going to give the Cubs the slight edge here, just because I don’t know what to expect from Matt Holliday. However, I do think the Cardinals’ pitching can neutralize Schwarber and Holliday could make me eat my words.

Sep 9, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder

(22) hits a RBI single against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Center Field

Cardinals: Jason Heyward – Heyward had the better overall numbers with a slash of .293/.359/.439 and a wRC+ of 139. He is also much better in CF than Fowler is. Heyward has actually been pretty good with a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 2.3 (not near as effective as his 20.2 UZR in right).

Cubs: Dexter Fowler – Fowler had a pretty good season in Chicago with a career high 17 home runs. However, Fowler had 11 of those dingers in homer friendly Wrigley Field. When you look at Fowler’s defensive numbers in Minute Maid Park and Coors Field you see his UZR, is noticeably worse than his numbers in Wrigley Field. Which, shows that he is not a very good CF. Look for the trend to continue in spacious Busch Stadium.

Advantage: Cardinals. This is another pretty close one. Heyward’s average and defense weight more than Fowler’s power and lack of average. Which is evident in the fWAR difference of 3.2 to 6.0 between the two players according to Fangraphs.

Next: Carpenter nominated for Hank Aaron award again

Right Field

Cardinals: Randal Grichuk/Stephen Piscotty – Grichuk, does have the propensity to strike out a lot, like Bryant and Schwarber. However, he has an average of .276 with 17 homers in 103 games played, with 10 of his homers coming in the pitcher friendly Busch Stadium. Add in Piscotty’s .305 average and 7 homers in 305 plate appearances and his wRC+ of 133, it’s clear the Cardinals have the advantage with whoever plays here.

Cubs: Austin Jackson/Jorge Soler – If Austin Jackson is indeed the starting RF for the Cubs in this series, it’s a clear advantage for the Cardinals. Jackson is a decent player and had some good seasons in Detroit. However, this season is season is an ok season, starting out in Seattle before being traded to the Cubs at the end of August. Jackson’s overall numbers look like this .267/.311/.385 with a wRC+ of 94. He did manage to come up with 39 extra base hits (nine homers, 25 doubles, and three triples). Most of those numbers came from Seattle, as he is hitting a dismal .236 with Chicago in 79 plate appearances.

Advantage: Cardinals. Even if the Cubs go with Soler and his 10 homers and .262 average, the advantage goes to the Cardinals.

Jul 8, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Thomas Pham against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Bench

Cardinals: Mark Reynolds, Brandon Moss, Jon Jay, Tommy Pham, Greg Garcia

Cubs: Jorge Soler/Austin Jackson, Chris Coghlan, Chris Denorfia, Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella

Advantage: Cardinals. The bench is loaded with postseason experience for the Cardinals, except for Garcia and Pham. Coghlan and Soler/Jackson are threats off the bench for the Cubs, but with the Cardinals’ superior bullpen the Cubs’ bench shouldn’t play that big of a role.

Alright, that will do it for today. Be sure to check back tomorrow as I continue my preview and take a look at the pitching side of things.

All advanced metrics are via Fangraphs.com unless otherwise stated.