2 Cardinals trade chips they'll regret holding onto, 1 they'll be thankful they did

Following the St. Louis Cardinals end of season press conference, it felt safe to say we'd be seeing multiple members of their Major League roster moved in trade this offseason.

Well, it's now January 9th, and exactly zero such moves have happend to this point.

Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray wishing to stay with St. Louis plays a strong role in that. The mixture of Miles Mikolas' no-trade clause and bad contract also does too. You could also argue they already kind of did make a trade, but Nolan Arenado nixed it before it truly was complete with the Houston Astros and he remains a Cardinal.

And yet, there are players on their roster like Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz who they could likely move if they desired, but have chosen not to up until this point. No one is stopping them from getting creative with young players on their roster and moving them for talent. Heck, even someone like JoJo Romero could potentially be moved to a hopeful contender.

I think most fans agree that the club's inability to successfully offload some of their veterans in order to bring back value for the future of the club has been a big miss thus far. Ownership seems far more preoccupied with shedding significant payroll than acquiring prospects for the future, and yet, the market seems to be in a place that would put the Cardinals in a strong seller's position with some of their players.

I do think there is an argument for some of these players that holding onto them for now is the best move for the future of the club and value they could get later.

Here are 2 players the Cardinals are going to regret holding onto this offseason, and 1 they'll be thankful that they did

The Cardinals will regret holding onto Nolan Arenado

First, yes, of course the Cardinals want to get rid of Arenado, so if they could have by now, they would. Still, it doesn't remove the fact that they'll regret the position they are in later if he cannot find a new destination soon.

No, I'm not advocating that the Cardinals just get rid of Arenado no matter the cost. They don't need to do something crazy and attach valuable assets to him in order to move him, or eat a majority of his contract without getting anything in return. Still, having him on the roster in 2025 (and potentially beyond) is not ideal for their long-term plans.

Arenado was still a valuable player in 2024, and he could repeat that again next season or even rebound to higher levels of performance, but there's also the risk that he continues to decline, and if that's the case, then they would basically be stuck with Arenado moving forward.

Allowing players like Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Thomas Saggese, and Alec Burleson (who would be most directly impacted by kepeing Arenado) need to play as much as possible next year. Finding out what you have in those players means a lot for this team's aspirations in 2026 and beyond, and that's the priority right now.

The Cardinals will regret not trading Erick Fedde

Out of all of the things that could make you scratch your head about the Cardinals' offseason, the one that really has me wondering what is going on with the front office is their decision it hold onto starter Erick Fedde.

Starting pitching is always at a premium, and this offseason is no exception. Nestor Cortes was the significant piece used to acquire Devin Williams in a trade this offseason. A bunch of free-agent contracts have been given out to starters less productive than Fedde and a much higher prices:

Sean Manaea - three years, $75 million,
Yusei Kikuchi - three years, $63 million
Luis Severino - three years, $67 million
Matthew Boyd - two years, $29 million
Frankie Montas - two years, $34 million
Charlie Morton - one year, $15 million

Meanwhile, Fedde is set to make just $7.5 million in 2025. It feels like a lot of Cardinals fans were underwhelmed by Fedde's performance after being acquired by the Cardinals, but the value he produced far exceeds what his contract is currently worth.

On the season, Fedde posted a 3.30 ERA in 177.1 innings of work. His 3.86 FIP points to him being a really nice middle-of-the-rotation starter, and that kind of player makes between $17m-$20m on the open market right now. After coming over to the Cardinals at the deadline, Fedde was not quite as sharp, but he still managed to post a 3.72 ERA in his 10 starts with St. Louis.

It has already been reported that two American League Central teams, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, have interest in Fedde, and I am sure there are other clubs around the league who would love to acquire him. It's up to the Cardinals to shop him, but it sounds like they want to hold onto him.

The only indication that we've had lately that the Cardinals would trade Fedde is if they are unable to move Arenado, and even so, they may just opt to dump Steven Matz's contract and still hold onto Fedde. Moving Fedde should not be mainly money-driven - the front office should see how moving the right-hander can help their retool beyond 2025.

Sure, keeping Fedde likely helps their chances of contention in 2025, but that shouldn't be the main priority. In fact, they've said themselves it is not. That doesn't mean they need to tank, but Fedde is more valuable as a trade asset to them than he is to their actual roster.

While the Cardinals could try and move him at the 2025 trade deadline or give him a qualifying offer to receive a draft pick after the season, it's a pretty risky proposition. Fedde could get hurt during the season or struggle on the mound and lose value. But if the Cardinals dealt him right now, they'd probably be looking at a pretty nice return.

I see a lot of risk in holding onto Fedde and not much reward. The Cardinals should deal him as soon as possible.

The Cardinals will be thankful they held onto Ryan Helsley this offseason

This might not be a popular opinion, but assuming the offers aren't all that great for Ryan Helsley right now, it makes much more sense for the Cardinals to hold onto their closer until a later date.

There really isn't much precedent for trading a closer of Helsley's stature in the offseason and receiving a great return. The Devin Williams trade to the Yankees did not impress me all that much, and I strongly believe that if Helsley has a good season and stays healthy, they will receive something in return at the deadline that is worth the wait.

I get that Helsley is the best bullpen arm available right now, but frankly, most teams probably don't want to pay up what it should take to pry him away from St. Louis. There just isn't enough desperation this time of year for a closer. Teams would rather take their chances on lower-risk options and see if they can improve their bullpen.

Remember last offseason when the Cardinals traded Richie Palacios for Andrew Kittredge? Or selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 Draft? Those two ended up being huge assets for them and didn't require a major contract or prospect package.

Look at guys like Luke Weaver and Kirby Yates. Both were super low-risk moves and ended up being two of the best closers in baseball last year.

On the other hand, the Astros handed out a massive contract to Josh Hader, and while he wasn't bad last year, he definitely wasn't worth the mega-deal he got. If teams are going to go all in on a reliever, they are much more likely to at the trade deadline.

Remember when the Cubs traded one of the best prospects in baseball for Aroldis Chapman in 2016? Or the Padres taking a swing at Hader even with him struggling in 2022? San Diego acquired another high-level closer this past deadline in Tanner Scott. If a team knows they have the roster to make a run and their team is in the thick of the race in July, they are much more likely to give up the kind of assets the Cardinals would want at that time than they would right now.

Yes, there is injury risk with Helsley. Sure, he could have a bad year. Those would hurt his value. But I think the potential reward of holding him right now is likely worth it.

Even if the Cardinals are unable to move him at the deadline, barring a disaster next year, they can give Helsley the qualifying offer after the season and receive a draft pick in return for him. The Cardinals, if they are in the race, may choose to hold onto him anyway.

I personally don't have a problem with them holding Helsley right now, especially if the offers just aren't that great. I think they'll end up liking what happens by holding him into the season.