11 times the Cardinals allowed fear to drive poor decision-making under John Mozeliak

The John Mozeliak era with the St. Louis Cardinals can be broken down into two very different runs. The first eight years were Hall of Fame resume-building from Mozeliak, and the final decade has been, well, mediocre.

From 2008-2015, the Cardinals went 728-568 (.562 win%), averaging 91 wins per season while collecting four NL Central division titles, four NLCS appearances, two trips to the World Series, and one title in 2011. It's one of the best runs of Cardinals baseball in franchise history.

But from 2016-2024, the Cardinals went 715-639 (.528 win%), averaging 85 wins during full seasons, winning the division just twice during that stretch, making the NLCS just one time, winning a total of four playoff games since 2016 and missing the playoffs entirely in five of the nine seasons during that stretch. Ouch.

One has to wonder why things have gone so poorly for the Cardinals over the last decade as compared to the first half of Mozeliak's tenure. There are so many things we could point to, and I will in this story, but the number one overarching issue that has plagued Mozeliak in his leadership for years now has been letting fear drive so much of their decision-making.

Winning at a high level in Major League Baseball required taking chances, which Mozeliak has done a number of times (sometimes for good, other times not), but as the Cardinals describe some of their decision-making as "risk-averse", it seems to be a mask for fear of failing. The irony is that their fear of failing did not prevent them from doing so, it just made that failure a slow decay rather than a major moment in time.

Today, I want to take a look at some of those key "fear-based" decisions the Cardinals made during John Mozeliak's tenure, mostly in chronological order, that led to their downfall. I can't cover everything in this, but I do believe I've been able to cover the major decisions and trends that snowballed to turn this storied franchise into a directionless wonder in recent years.

Here are 11 times the Cardinals allowed fear to guide poor decision making under John Mozeliak

Fear-based decision #1 - Hiring Mike Matheny over Terry Francona after the 2011 season

Following their 11th World Series Championship in 2011 (hence the 11 mistakes we are looking at), Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa retired from the game of baseball and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols left for the Los Angeles Angels in free agency.

Still, the Cardinals manager job was easily the best opening in all of baseball, as the club's championship window was wide open (as we saw in the years following). The Cardinals interviewed candidates such as Jose Oquendo, Ryan Sandberg, Joe McEwing, and Chris Maloney, but the two leaders in the clubhouse to "lead the clubhouse" were two-time World Series champion manager Terry Francona and former Cardinals' catcher Mike Matheny.

Francona won the World Series in 2004 against the Cardinals with the Boston Red Sox in his first season as their manager, helping them end their 86-year championship drought and collecting another World Series title in 2007. Francona posted a 744-552 record as the Red Sox's manager and an incredible 8-0 record during the Fall Classic.

This did not end on a good note with Boston, as Francona was drug through the mud by players and media for the "beer drinking and fast-food eating" in the clubhouse during games and Francona reportedly being "distracted" due to his personal life. I'm sure these reports did not sit well with the Cardinals and probably played a large role in him not landing the gig that offseason. Some reports even indicated that Francona's interview was merely a "courtesy" meeting with the Cardinals having their eyes fully set on Matheny to lead the club.

Matheny was a part of the Cardinals' run of high-level play from 2012-2015, but many fans feel as though he held the team back from accomplishing all that it could and he was ultimately fired in 2018 after the club was trending toward its third-straight season of missing the playoffs.

Francona, on the other hand, went on to lead the Cleveland Guardians for a number of years, helping them become one of the better teams in baseball and reaching the World Series in 2016. Francona is viewed as one of the best managers in the game and could have been the key to the Cardinals getting over the hump many times during the 2010s.

I'm not sure it's fair to say this was the "first" decision based out of fear by the Cardinals during Mozeliak's regime, but it certainly was one of the first major choices that had lasting impacts for the organization. But the most controversial decision on this list within the fanbase was referenced at the top of this and still remains one of the greatest mysteries in the history of the franchise.

Fear-based decision #2 - Allowing Albert Pujols to walk in free agency

This is probably going to be the most polarizing decision on this list, as I think many fans would say it ended up being the right decision in hindsight. While I tend to agree, I do think it's fair to say fear led to the Cardinals not ponying up the kind of offer needed to sign Pujols long-term, and it's fair to wonder how things would have played out in St. Louis had he stayed.

Things were getting rocky between Pujols and the front office as his contract expired with St. Louis. It was clear that the organization was not meeting what Pujols felt was a fair offer, and that led to him testing the waters of free agency and ultimately landing with the Angels.

No one can deny that Pujols' tenure with the Angels left a lot to be desired, but even so, he remained a very impactful player from 2012-2015, the same stretch the Cardinals were one of the best teams in baseball. We'll never know if Pujols would have maintained his dominance longer had he remained with St. Louis, but even if he was only as effective with them as he was with the Angels, he would have been an asset for the Cardinals lineup.

But the thing that will always linger in the minds of Cardinals fans is what if he kept us his all-time great performances? From his debut in 2001 through 2011, Pujols averaged a .328/.420/.617 slash line with 40 home runs, 41 doubles, and 121 RBI while posting a 7.9 bWAR per season. I think most of us have a hard time believing he wouldn't have been at least a 5 bWAR player with St. Louis, something he never did again in his career after leaving.

The lack of the designated hitter spot in the National League would have made it difficult for Pujols long-term, but if he had helped them capture another World Series from 2012-2015, it would have been worth it. Heck, even just never having to see the hitter who should have gone down as the best player in franchise history in another uniform would have been plenty for this fanbase.

Instead, the front office feared a decline from Pujols like he had with the Angels. Again, it is entirely possible that it would have played out the same way in St. Louis and become a major burden for the club to navigate throughout the 2010s, but we'll never know the answer to that. Fortunately, we got an incredible return season from Pujols in 2022 that really brought closure to his Cardinals' career.

Fear-based decision #3 - Passing on Max Scherzer despite him wanting to pitch in St. Louis in 2014

Some of this is certainly arrogance, but the Cardinals as an organization have clearly feared the idea of giving lucrative long-term contracts to starting pitchers in free agency, even when a future Hall of Famer in his prime came knocking on their door and was willing to take less to pitch for them.

The 2014 Cardinals finished the year reaching their fourth straight National League Championship Series, this time falling short to the San Francisco Giants four games to one and looking to continue their run of dominance in the NL Central division as a young Chicago Cubs team began their ascent.

The Cardinals did a masterful job of winning at an extremely high level in the early 2010s, even after losing one of the best players of all time to free agency in Albert Pujols. Their ability to develop talent with the best in baseball while finding the right veterans to add to their core each year allowed them to consistently be one of the final four teams left in October, reaching two World Series (2011 and 2013) while winning the first one they appeared in during this decade.

In many ways, the 2014-2015 postseason represented the beginning of the end for the Cardinals' run of dominance. Not only were they months away from the Houston Astros hacking scandal being uncovered, but that was preceded by Jeff Lunhow and other key members of the Cardinals front office moving on to run the Astros a few years prior. During the same timeframe that Lunhow and his crew left St. Louis, Theo Epstein and his brain trust took over the Cubs and began rebuilding the organization from the ground up.

That offseason, the Cubs appeared to win the offseason by signing pitcher Jon Lester to a huge six-year deal and swiping Rays' manager Joe Maddon to lead their ball club. Many within the game believed that the Cubs were ready to make some noise, and the Cardinals were under pressure to fend them off in 2015.

The Cardinals offseason began with the tragic passing of outfielder Oscar Taveras, rattling the organization and leading them to make a bold trade for outfielder Jason Heyward from the Atlanta Braves, giving up a young stud in right-handed pitching Shelby Miller to get the rental bat.

Now, while that was a substantial move, it really just replaced what the Cardinals thought they already had in Taveras with Heyward and subtracted from their incredible pitching staff. Could they withstand the loss of Miller? Sure, but when your arch-rival is nipping at your heels, you should be ready to pounce on opportunities when they come your way.

That opportunity came knocking, perhaps in the best possible way, but the Cardinals declined to pursue it. During that offseason, Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer, who was from St. Louis, was a free agent and received a seven-year, $210 million offer from the Washington Nationals. Apparently Scherzer reached out to Adam Wainwright and told him that he wanted to pitch in St. Louis, and if the Cardinals got in the "ballpark" of the Nationals offer, he would sign with them.

They never even called.

Bill DeWitt Jr. and John Mozeliak "adhered to a model when it came to starting pitchers that was risk-averse", thus never making an effort to go after an ace like Scherzer who wanted to pitch with St. Louis. The Cardinals had the sixth-best starters ERA (3.44) in baseball in 2024, and even with the loss of Miller, featured a staff with Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Jamie Garcia, John Lackey, and Carlos Martinez. Still, the opportunity to make a strength into a feared unit was on the table, and they said no.

Over the course of that contract, Scherzer started 200 games, posted a 2.75 ERA, struck out 1699 batters, collected two Cy Young awards, and finished top five in Cy Young voting during four other seasons. The long year Scherzer did not finish top five in Cy Young voting and had an ERA north of 3.00 was the 2020 pandemic season.

Yeah, what a miss from this organization. I get it, those huge contracts are scary, and Scherzer was 30 years old when he signed it, and even though hindsight is 20/20, it is the front office's job to nail these decisions. Yes, you will get some wrong, but this wasn't even an example of them not chasing a free agent. This was the Cardinals front office failing to even answer the front door when one of the best pitchers of all time, in his prime, came knocking and said he'd take less to pitch for them.

It's a shame, and this offseason was truly the beginning of compounding poor decisions from the front office that oftentimes led from a place of fear.

Fear-based decision #4 - The Dexter Fowler signing

After not signing Max Scherzer prior to the 2015 season, the Cardinals went on to win 100 games and earn another playoff berth as they sought out their fifth straight NLCS appearance and hopefully a third trip to the World Series in five seasons.

Instead, the Cardinals ran into that young Cubs team that was nipping at their heels, and despite jumping out to a 1-0 series lead and starting Game 2 off with a 1-0 lead, an ill Jaime Garcia blew up in the second inning, and the Cubs never looked back, beating the Cardinals three games to one and ending their incredible run in the first half of the 2010s.

The Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010 during the 2016 season, finishing 17.5 games back of the team of destiny in Chicago, watching the Cubs go on to secure their first World Series title in over 100 years as the Cardinals were left looking in the mirror that offseason.

Prior to 2016, both Jason Heyward and John Lackey left the Cardinals to sign with the Cubs in what felt like a total gut punch to the organization. The pitching struggled big time in 2016, as Wainwright, Garcia, and Wacha all had down years, and Lackey's replacement Mike Leake was ineffective in their rotation.

The Cardinals really felt the loss of Heyward in their outfield as well, as Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty were all just slightly above league average offensively and the front office was desperate to get back into contention as soon as possible.

There are very, very few times I have outright hated a signing that the Cardinals have made over the last decade. I can usually see the silver lining or at least understand that it could work out. But man, their decision to sign Dexter Fowler away from the Cubs for five years, $82.5 million reeked of desperation and felt like it was going to fail from the start.

Fowler had a career year as the Cubs leadoff man, slashing .264/.363/.488 on their way to a World Series championship. During his first season with St. Louis, Fowler repeated that success, slashing .264/.363/.488 but only managing to appear in 118 games that first season.

Fowler was terrible for St. Louis the rest of his contract though, slashing .218/.320/.370 while regressing defensively and posting just a 0.1 bWAR over a three-season period. We'll get to this in a moment, but the Cardinals' constant search for an Oscar Taveras replacement led to poor choice after poor choice, and ultimately Fowler's contract kept them from going after the perfect solution to their problem (who we'll get to here in a bit).

The Cardinals' complacency allowed them to fall behind the Cubs, and instead of owning their mistakes and figuring out how to outclass them, the Cardinals just tried to steal the Cubs' magic and it backfired in a big way.

Fear-based decision #5 - The Marcell Ozuna trade

A lot of you probably remember this, but for those of you who don't, the Cardinals had interest in all three Miami Marlins outfielders during the offseason following the 2017 season, but they ended up with their least favorite of the trio in Marcell Ozuna.

First, the Cardinals heavily pursued slugger Giancarlo Stanton, and they actually agreed to a trade for the former NL MVP before he vetoed the trade and was shipped to the New York Yankees instead.

Yes, the Cardinals actually agreed to acquire Stanton and the remaining 10 years, $295 million left on his contract to make him their superstar middle-of-the-order bat for years to come. And when they struck out on Stanton, their eyes were set on Marlins' center fielder Christian Yelich next.

The Marlins were in no rush to move Yelich though, playing hardball with the Cardinals and not wanting to move him unless it was for a hefty price. Instead of waiting out the Marlins like the Milwaukee Brewers did, the Cardinals got anxious and turned their attention to their third preference, Ozuna.

Sending a very similar (if not the exact same) package to Miami for Ozuna that they agreed to for Stanton, the Cardinals brought Ozuna to St. Louis, under the awareness of his shoulder issues that would plague him as a Cardinal, in hopes that he could help rejuvenate their offense in a major way.

The season before being shipped to St. Louis, Ozuna slashed .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs and 124 RBI in 148 games for the Marlins, which is why the Cardinals and other teams were interested in his services. Still, the Cardinals favored Yelich and Stanton, and while they dodged a bullet missing out on the latter, the former went on the win an MVP with Milwaukee and would have been an excellent fit for St. Louis.

Ozuna lasted just two years with the Cardinals before leaving in free agency, posting a .262/.327/.451 slash line while averaging 26 home runs and 89 RBI each season. He wasn't a bad hitter by any means, but only posting a 107 OPS+ as a Cardinal was a major disappointment, and they ended up giving up a future Cy Young award winner and another Cy Young contender in Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in that disaster of a trade.

Had they waited out Yelich, they would have gotten an MVP performance out of him in year one and an MVP runner-up campaign in 2019, and considering they made the NLCS that second year, they may have been able to make a trip to the World Series had they had Yelich in hand. Since being acquired by the Brewers, Yelich has slashed .283/.383/.491 with a 136 OPS+, far better than what they got from Ozuna.

Instead, the Cardinals were once again disappointed with their outfield results in 2017 and 2018, and faced with an opportunity to end those woes, they decided to avoid the aggressive approach at the time it would have actually paid off.

Fear-based decision #6 - Not pursuing Bryce Harper in free agency

Going into the 2018-2019 offseason, the Cardinals lacked a true star in their lineup, someone who could headline the club, sell tickets, and ultimately win the Cardinals a lot of games with his bat. The Cardinals recognized this, and it led to them making a blockbuster trade for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt early in the offseason.

Awesome move by the front office, one that should bring zero complaints from the fan base. They turned meh prospects into an awesome bat and future MVP for the club, so they knocked that move specifically out of the park.

Here is the issue though. Great teams wouldn't just stop there. The Cardinals had an opportunity to truly join the conversation as a World Series contender, and do so with a talent and personality that was capable of filling the hole left by Pujols for the last decade in Bryce Harper.

Harper was coming off his age-25 season and had already won an MVP by the time he hit free agency, but a "down" year in 2018 where he was "just" 33% above league average and his lengthy contract demand had many teams hesitant to give Harper a deal that offseason.

Harper waited almost the entire winter to get his 13-year, $330 million deal, and while that number seems massive, the $25.4 million average annual value is a massive bargain in today's game. For those who are curious, Harper is just the 22nd-highest-paid player in the sport on annual value, behind names like Carlos Rodon, Dansby Swanson, Nolan Arenado, and yes, Giancarlo Stanton.

Remember how the Cardinals were willing to take on Giancarlo Stanton's contract while also having to give up prospects to do so? What changed?

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was asked last year about the Cardinals' choice not to pursue Bryce Harper when he was a free agent during the 2018-2019 offseason and the reasons why are pretty frustrating.

"Probably not. They should have, though. He was all but calling them himself to talk about how he would consider playing there -- if the offer was right. But you might recall the Cardinals made the deal for Paul Goldschmidt that same offseason and they moved fast to get that done, and once they had him they really didn't pursue another player of that caliber on the open market. Harper would have been an excellent fit. Maybe even -- dare I say it? -- a bargain at his price. But, no, haven't heard that the Cardinals would acknowledge a do-over on that winter. Not like it was when they, on the record, said they messed up by not pursuing Max Scherzer."

Goold was right to say it was at a bargain price. Future Hall of Famers do not hit free agency prior to turning 26 years old very often, and when they do now, they get a $765 million contract like Juan Soto. Bryce Harper didn't even get half of that.

Sure, that's because the contract was signed over six years later, but that is the point. When someone in the mid-20s as good as Harper hits free agency, the contract they sign today won't touch the kind of money players sign for years later. The odds of that contract aging as poorly as people thought it would were low, and Harper has done nothing but prove the Phillies got him for a steal since he signed that deal.

It's easy to forget that before the Phillies became who they are today, they had an 11-year playoff drought from 2011 all the way to 2022. Things did not change overnight from a team performance when Harper got to Philadelphia, but it is clear that he transformed their organization from a decade-long run of mediocrity to one of the best teams in baseball for four years running now.

Harper was on a Hall of Fame track before he left the Nationals, and since he got to the Phillies, he's actually been even better as a player. Harper has slashed .284/.391/.531 with 154 home runs and 460 RBI, and his counting stats would be even better had he not missed time during a few seasons due to injury and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Harper won another MVP in 2021 and has finished top-12 in MVP voting two other times since signing with the Phillies.

Sure, the Cardinals probably would not have traded for Nolan Arenado had they signed Harper after trading for Goldschmidt as well, but for as fun as Arenado has been in St. Louis, Harper has been better, and he would have filled that gaping hole of left-handed presence in the middle of their lineup over the last seven seasons.

The ripple effects go even further than that in my opinion. I mentioned it already, but Harper would have filled that "superstar void" the city has felt from this team in a way that Goldschmidt and Arenado have been unable to. Harper's persona and play style would have lit a fire under this city, and he would have given the Cardinals would of the most marketable stars in today's game.

The Cardinals deciding not to pursue Harper also led to them putting all of their eggs in the baskets of young outfielders Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson. Had they signed Harper, they may have been willing to move one of them in a trade, which could have improved the club even further, with one specifically glaring trade miss, in particular, looming that would have been an added game-changer for the organization.

Fear-based decision #7 - Prospect hoarding after getting burned in multiple trades

When you look over at the Philadelphia Phillies, you see a complete team whose dynamic offense is led by Harper, and their excellent pitching staff is headlined by Zack Wheeler. Oh, and fun fact, those two could have easily been teammates with the Cardinals.

At the 2019 trade deadline, the New York Mets shopped starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, and when the Cardinals came calling, they asked for one of Tyler O'Neill or Harrison Bader. But remember how the Cardinals decided not to sign Bryce Harper and instead bet the house on O'Neill, Bader, and Carlson? Because of that, the club decided that was too rich of a price to pay for Wheeler and declined to add him to their roster for a postseason run.

The 2019 Cardinals were swept by the Washington Nationals in the NLCS, but man, I think things could have gone differently if they had a trio of Harper, Goldschmidt, and Ozuna in their lineup and Flaherty, Wheeler, and Wainwright leading their rotation.

Don't forget, Flaherty had one of the best second-half performances in baseball history that year, and while Wheeler became the ace he is today after the 2019 season, he was still a very good starter that would have helped the Cardinals in a big way.

The Zack Wheeler trade is the big whiff we have good reporting about, but the Cardinals really became gun-shy when it came to moving prospects after the Ozuna trade and letting Randy Arozarena go for Matthew Liberatore. Bad trades are going to happen, they just are. It's frustrating that moves like Ozuna and Liberatore were based out of desperation, making it far more likely that things would go wrong, but if the Cardinals had hit the reset button in their hearts and decided to be aggressive rather than reckless, they could have turned valuable prospects into top-tier talent that could have made them a real contender from 2019-2022.

The Juan Soto saga remains one of those tough-to-diagnose situations as the Nationals' asking price was historically high. Look at what James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Mackenzie Gore are now doing for Washington - Dylan Carlson and a few random prospects weren't going to get Soto to St. Louis. But had the Cardinals pushed all the chips in, meaning a package resembling something like Carlson, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Tink Hence, Matthew Liberatore, and perhaps more, they could have gone on a postseason run with Soto, Goldschmidt, Arenado, and the red hot Albert Pujols (or if they had made better decisions years prior, Harper would be in that mix instead of Arenado).

While that package of players as a whole has not panned out, there's no guarantee that Washington would have taken even that deal, and had they done it, the Cardinals would have likely needed to trade Soto after the 2023 season like the Padres did. But even so, it is now hard to argue against someone who feels like they missed on the opportunity of a lifetime again here.

Sean Murphy was someone who they balked at the price of in recent years and so was Josh Donaldson. There are probably a lot more stars who were moved in trades that the Cardinals could have been in on, but instead, they trusted their farm system, and it was a massive mistake.

And the biggest tragedy of this point specifically is that deep down, the Cardinals should have known it was a poor choice on their end. Because as we've begun to see in recent years, the Cardinals quietly allowed their once incredible player development system to fall behind, and it has resulted in a frustrating stretch for Cardinals fans.

Fear-based decision #8 - Failing to evolve in the area of player development, falling behind in both investment and results

At the end of the 2024 season, Katie Woo of The Athletic dropped one of the biggest stories surrounding the state of the Cardinals organization in years, and the piece was filled with anonymous quotes from Cardinals team employees who were sounding the alarm bells on how bad things had gotten.

“We’re in trouble,” one team employee said. “This is not easily fixable within the next year, or year after. This is going to take some time." This was one of many revealing quotes from Cardinals personnel as the front office and ownership prepared to set the stage for massive changes to the organization.

As Woo detailed in the piece and I alluded to earlier, the Cardinals falling behind in player development didn't just happen over a few years' time span. Instead, it was that slow decay that ate the organization from the inside out, and by the time the results made it to the field, they were already years upon years deep into the issues they created for themselves.

Lunhow leaving after the 2011 World Series championship was one of the major events that began that decay. Over time, Lunhow, Sig Medjal, Mike Elias Dan Kantrovitz, and others flocked from the Cardinals front office to continue moving up in their baseball careers. And honestly, we should look even a few years before 2011 at the passing of both George Kissell and Dave Ricketts two pioneers of "The Cardinal Way" who helped shape what made the organization special all the way back in 1968.

Over time, the Cardinals began to lose that edge they had when the front office was filled with some of the brightest minds in the game. They started to become an echo chamber of ideas, believing they were still at the top of the baseball world when in reality, the game was passing them by. And then when COVID hit Major League Baseball, the Cardinals made major cuts to their personnel and chose to not rehire those positions and run a thin staff for the sake of allocating more dollars to Major League payroll.

It will be Chaim Bloom's task to get them back on track when he takes over next season, but the fall from grace under Mozeliak's watch cannot be understated. It's honestly one of the things that Mozeliak and ownership have failed to take accountability for. Sure, they kind of did when they said they needed to allocate more resources there this offseason, but neither Mozeliak nor DeWitt Jr. will just own the fact that it fell off so drastically when asked about it publically. They try to play both sides, saying changes needed to be made but also acting as those the problem was overstated. Well, according to employees from within their own organization, it's been really bad.

Fear-based decision #9 - The Miles Mikolas extension

During spring training in 2023, everyone kept talking about how the Cardinals only had one starting pitcher under contract beyond that season, with Wainwright, Flaherty, Mikolas, and Jordan Montgomery all set to hit free agency that coming winter. Naturally, people wondered how the Cardinals would address this issue, it was top of mind for the club as well.

Instead of letting the season play out and seeing what they had in those players, the Cardinals signed Miles Mikolas to a two-year extension worth $40 million. We all know how bad that has been going since then.

Mikolas has been one of the worst starters in baseball since the 2023 season began, and instead of the Cardinals letting him walk in free agency or signing him back on a one-year prove-it deal following the disaster of a 2023 season he had, they already locked him up through 2025 and had to account for him in their rotation.

The idea that the Cardinals were doomed because they only had one pitcher under contract for 2024 was so dramatic. People acted like it would be impossible for the Cardinals to find four in one offseason, and yet, they were able to snag both Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn rather quickly and painlessly, and the only reason there was any doubt about the Sonny Gray signing happening was because they were apparently incredibly late to call and talk to him, which is just crazy to think about.

So yes, I'm pretty confident that if the Cardinals had not extended Mikolas that spring, they would have found a way to acquire four starters, not just three, that next offseason. And considering how bad Mikolas has been, I am pretty confident the starter they would have found would have been better, or it would have been a cheaper contract for Mikolas the very least.

But here we are again, looking at another decision the Cardinals made out of fear.

The Cardinals could not stand the uncertainty they had, and so they extended a veteran player too soon like they did with Matt Carpenter, and it backfired once again. It was 100% a self-inflicted wound by the club, and what is craziest to me is that the upside was practically zero.

How good would Mikolas have to have been in 2023 to get a contract bigger than the one he got from St. Louis? Even if he repeated his success from 2022, the contract would have been very similar, and had it gone up, it only would have been by a small margin. The risk was 100% on the Cardinals' side here, and it blew up in their face because of that.

Fear-based decision #10 - Removing Willson Contreras from his catching duties in 2023

32 games. That's all it took for the Cardinals to give up on Willson Contreras as a catcher after signing him to a five-year deal prior to the 2023 season.

No, the Cardinals could not comprehend how their lack of investment in coaching and game prep for so many years contributed to their pitching imploded when Yadier Molina left after the 2022 season. And no, the Cardinals did not look at the incompetency of their own pitching staff and acknowledge that they needed to be better. Instead, the organization caved to the preferences of some pitchers who apparently complained about Contreras and removed him from his catching duties in early May of 2023.

That didn't last long, and you know why? Because even though almost every other decision I'm looking at on this list had greater impacts long-term, the Cardinals doing this to Contreras was easily the clearest example of how desperate and fearful they had gotten as an organization. To make a move this drastic is not something the Cardinals have ever been about, but it's clear they were completely lost at the time, and they made a terrible decision because of that.

And the fact that the Cardinals undid that decision shortly after also goes to show you how much of a panic move it was. This was not something they had a well-thought-out plan for, but rather they made a reckless decision, saw the consequences, and tried to clean up their mess but it was far too late to do so.

Luckily for St. Louis, Contreras handled it like a total professional and was an incredible teammate and leader through it all. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball since that timeframe, and even as he transitioned to first base this offseason, it did not come out of a place of desperation regarding his defense, but rather an opportunity to keep his bat in the lineup every day and replace Paul Goldschmidt.

Still, this decision was one of the lowest moments of the horrible 2023 season for the Cardinals, and it still reflects poorly on the organization to this day. They caused so much chaos for themselves and Contreras by doing this, and it is still mind-boggling to me that the organization allowed things to spiral this much for them.

Fear-based decision #11 - Refusing to choose a lane during the 2024-2025 offseason

And now we get to the present day, where after a dissapointing 2024 campaign that saw the club miss the playoffs again, fans and media expected the organization to wave the white flag and begin to do the hard work of a rebuild or at least a one or two-year retool.

Nope. That's not what happened.

So the club doubled down and tried to win again in 2025? Well, not that either.

They just kinda did nothing. Well, they literally did nothing with their Major League roster until the very end of spring training when they signed Phil Maton.

Yes, the Cardinals did a ton of work behind the scenes to begin to set up the Chaim Bloom era and get the player development changes rolling. That is really important work that honestly matters more than probably any single transaction they could have made this offseason. But, with that being said, Mozeliak remaining in charge for one more season meant that there was a potential conflict of interest in terms of what is best for the organization this offseason, and instead of unloading valuable players to get prospects in return, the Cardinals held onto everyone except for impending free agents in hopes that they can "surprise people" in 2025.

While Cardinals fans cannot stand the state the organization found itself in at the end of the 2024 season and the years leading up to it, the fanbase desperately wanted a direction that was different than what they had before. Rebuilding is unacceptable in this city, but the fanbase is smart enough to know that it was a necessary route at this point. No, we aren't talking about a full-scale rebuild where the club trades literally everyone and tries to tank, but fans knew that trading guys like Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz would accelerate their chances at being good again in the future.

Contreras and Gray opted to stay, and they were unable to find a trade for Arenado that worked for both him and the club. But guess what? They didn't mean they had to hold onto those other guys, or even avoid reapproaching Contreras and Gray and letting them know that it is probably best for the club if they are traded.

Instead, the Cardinals, in classic fashion, didn't fully commit to what was needed. And once again, ding ding ding, you guessed it, fear drove that. Fear of crowds not packing Busch Stadium if their favorite players weren't there anymore. Fear that the club wouldn't start off well and tickets wouldn't be sold for their summer contests. Fear that Mozeliak, in his last year, would have to oversee the beginning stage of a rebuild rather than have a chance to go out on a high(?) note.

I guess we shouldn't surprised that the same regime that has allowed fear to guide their decisions for over a decade is once again doing so in the final days of their reign. Cardinals fans can look forward to different leadership in the near future, but it does not make this feel any better. This fanbase is tired of the mishaps they've witnessed and endured, and it is a shame that the front office and ownership allowed fear to once again win the day.

The Cardinals could be a pretty good baseball team this year. The offense has been dynamic thus far and the pitching has the ability to be better than it has performed to this point. But we all know this team cannot win a World Series this year, and frankly, they are going to have a really difficult time making the playoffs even if they do play well.

Being stuck in the middle is the worst place to be in baseball. Sonny Gray said it himself back at Winter Warm-Up. But that's where the Cardinals' front office and ownership chose to be this year, and it is a fitting end to this era of Cardinals' leadership.