10 New Year's predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Happy New Year, St. Louis Cardinals fans!

I did this last year with a mixed bag of results, but today I'm going to going to make 10 New Year's predictions related to the Cardinals' upcoming year in 2025. There are not just predictions for the 2025 season, as I'll address things that will happen before Spring Training, during the year, and next offseason.

There are a ton of storylines at play for this Cardinals club in 2025, so there are a lot of areas where predictions can be had and a variety of outcomes may play out. Here are my 10 predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals as they enter this New Year.

Prediction #1: Nolan Arenado and either Erick Fedde or Steven Matz are traded before Spring Training

Let's start with what's on everyone's minds right now in Cardinals Nation - is Nolan Arenado actually going to be traded? And will anyone else be on the move as well?

As the days pass by, the less certain it feels that any of those kinds of moves will occur. I do think people are forgetting how it was expected after Arenado declined a trade to Houston that this would drag into the New Year, and Alex Bregman remaining unsigned is playing a huge factor as well.

Once more of these dominos fall, I expect Arenado to be moved. The Cardinals will likely need to eat $15 million to $20 million on his contract in order for them to do so, and if things look bleak, they could even have to eat more. But at this point, I still expect a deal to get done.

The Red Sox, Mets, Angels, and Yankees still feel like the most likely landing spots for the third baseman. It may take a few more weeks, but I doubt we see Arenado in a Cardinal uniform come Spring Training.

I also think the Cardinals will move one of Erick Fedde or Steven Matz and then probably bring in Kyle Gibson to replace them. We already know some American League Central teams have called on them, so there is definitely interest out there.

Moving one of them will help clear more salary room, though if they sign Gibson that will negate most or all of the money moved. But a trade also helps clear room for a young starter to get opportunities, and that's something the Cardinals need to prioritize in 2025.

Prediction #2: Lars Nootbaar will play in 130+ games, finally make good on his promise

Last year I predicted that Lars Nootbaar would be the Cardinals' best player in 2024. While I'm not necessarily going to predict that again in 2025, I do think this is the year he finally stays healthy and produces like the hype has been saying he can.

For years now, people have been clamoring about the potential Nootbaar has and how the underlying metrics say his offensive numbers are about to explode. Well, believe it or not, 2024 was actually his best year yet under the hood, and if he can stay on the field, Nootbaar is going to be an exciting player for this Cardinals' team.

Here is how Nootbaar ranked in those projectable categories in 2024:

xwOBA - 89th percentile
xBA - 77th percentile
xSLG - 78th percentile
Average exit velocity - 88th percentile
Barrel% - 66th percentile
Squared-Up% - 88th percentile
Chase% - 100th percentile
Whiff% - 82nd percentile
K% - 65th percentile
BB% - 98th percentile

In summary, Nootbaar's expected numbers had him in the top third in baseball in wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage while hitting the ball harder than basically 90% of qualified hitters. Not only that, Nootbaar was the best in baseball at not chasing the ball out of the zone, he rarely swung and missed, struck out less frequently than the average hitter, and was in the top 2% of hitters at drawing walks.

These are all encouraging signs when it comes to offensive production. And when you put them all into one player, it's no wonder the Cardinals continue to believe in the talent they see in Nootbaar.

But, he's got to stay on the field to make good on that. We've seen with Nootbaar that he is very much a rhythm hitter. Once he's in the lineup consistently, things get going, and he heats up quickly. But he's far too often falling back on the injured list. But I believe 2025 is the year things change for Nootbaar, he's available daily, and he has a true breakout year.

Prediction #3: The Cardinals' young offensive core is established, with some taking on major roles while others losing their favor with the club

2025 is about the kids, and more specifically, the young bats will be on display the most.

Outside of Nootbaar, names like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, and Pedro Pages are all going to be examined closely by the organization to see whether or not they can be relied upon moving forward. I think it's safe to say that Winn and Donovan are already a part of the Cardinals' future, and I just predicted Nootbaar was going to be healthy enough to stick in that group as well.

But when it comes to the other names on this list, they all have real question marks that need to be answered this season for St. Louis to count them as a major part of their core moving forward. Any of them could take steps back or just fail to show enough promise to stand out in that way. But any of them could also break out in a real way. That's what's so interesting about this young core.

I really don't want to pick the specific names since I could really see just about any of them establish themselves or fall out of favor. If I had to pick a top three that I think will break out though, it would be Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Ivan Herrera (on top of Winn, Donovan, and Nootbaar who I believe will be safe). Each of those guys has All-Star ceilings and can be true difference-makers for St. Louis. That doesn't mean all of them will reach those heights, but I have confidence they'll at least establish themselves as valuable secondary pieces, if not true leaders of that young core.

Prediction #4 Sonny Gray will compete for the 2025 NL Cy Young Award

Sonny Gray had to have one of the weirdest and most disappointing "good" seasons from a starting pitcher in recent memory. It probably has something to do with the fact that Gray was "the guy" in the rotation for St. Louis last year, but the way people talked about him would make you think he was terrible for the Cardinals.

In 28 starts, Gray went 13-9 with a 3.84 ERA. Not what people had in mind for their newly acquired front-line starter, but also not "bad" either. But when you look at different indicators for success among elite starting pitchers, it's kind of wild to see how good Gray was under the hood and how that should excite fans about what could be in 2025.

Here is how Gray ranked among qualified pitchers in some of the best stats for measuring how good a starter truly is:

3.12 FIP - 8th
2.82 xFIP - 2nd
3.03 SIERA - 3rd
1.09 WHIP - T-12th
30.3 K% - 3rd
5.8 BB% - 14th
24.4 K-BB% - 3rd

Gray was among the best in baseball at striking out hitters, limiting both hits and walks, and all of that caused those expected run-prevention numbers to be among the best in the league. So why did Gray not actually prevent runs at that level?

There were two main reasons why. First, Gray gave up home runs at an alarming rate last year, ranking 50th out of 58 qualified started in HR/FB rate (14.3%). Gray let the home run ball kill his outings too many times last year, and he needs to lower that a bit next year to help his outings.

Second, Gray had drastic home run splits in 2024. When Gray was at Busch Stadium, he posted a 2.79 ERA, which was actually the 12th-best home ERA for a starting pitcher last year among qualified pitchers. On the flip side, Gray had a 5.20 ERA on the road, which was 88th out of 94 pitchers who qualified there.

It would be one thing if Gray had always struggled on the road, but historically, Gray is actually better pitching away (3.39 ERA) than at home (3.61 ERA). If Gray can get back to his career norm when pitching in road games next year, he's going to find a ton of success.

Early projections have Gray slated to be one of the best pitchers in baseball next year for those very reasons. I'm not going to predict he will win the Cy Young or even finish in the top 3, but I do believe he'll get some votes next year with his performance.

Prediction #5 Chaim Bloom shakes up the front office even further, replacing multiple key voices from the John Mozeliak era

Something to watch as John Mozeliak finishes his tenure with the Cardinals this year and Chaim Bloom takes over is how many of the Cardinals' current front office group stay intact. Many of Mozeliak's core front office members have their contracts expiring following the 2025 season, so it's very possible Bloom moves on from any of them next winter.

It feels incredibly likely that Michael Girsch will be on his way out after the season, as he was already removed from his GM duties and made VP of Special Projects for this next year. We've seen Gary LaRoque and Matt Slater, both significant voices over the last number of years, move out of their positions as well. I'm not sure what the future holds for Randy Flores, Moises Rodriguez, and others in the Cardinals' front office, but I do think we'll see a few more shake-ups before the end of 2025.

Prediction #6 - Ryan Helsley is not traded this year with the Cardinals being in contention around the deadline, but they'll make him the qualifying offer and receive a draft pick next offseason

The Cardinals are unlikely to move Ryan Helsley this offseason, and as they seek to get fans to the stadium in 2025, I'm starting to doubt they will move him at all unless the club is clearly out of contention in July.

I would not be shocked if the Cardinals are in the playoff race in 2025 and still move Helsley at the deadline, but it doesn't seem like that's the path they are planning on taking as things currently stand. They could have done that last deadline and scoffed at the idea, so I think there's a real chance they hold him at this deadline too and let him walk in the offseason.

Assuming Helsley performs at a high level and is healthy going into the offseason, the Cardinals will be able to give him the qualifying offer and get a draft selection in return for him when he signs elsewhere. It's likely that a trade package would be more valuable at the deadline than a single draft selection, but given both Chaim Bloom and Randy Flores' success in drafts, adding another pick to their slate in 2026 would be a nice consolation.

Prediction #7 - Quinn Mathews finished top 3 in NL Rookie of the Year voting

If you told me in January 2024 that I'd be making this prediction today, I would have thought you had lost your mind. But that just goes to show you how impressive Quinn Mathews was during his first year with the organization.

After being selected in the fourth round of the 2023 MLB draft, Mathews posted a 2.76 ERA in 26 starts across four different minor league levels, earning himself the title of Baseball America's Minor League Pitcher of the Year, an award that only Rick Ankiel has won for Cardinals' prospects.

Mathews' struck out 202 batters in just 143.1 innings of work, leading all minor league pitchers by 28 strikeouts and becoming just the second pitcher in the last 13 years to strike out more than 200 batters in the minor leagues in a single season.

The Cardinals worked hard with Mathews last offseason to add more velocity, and it paid off in a big way. His slider, which sat between 82-84 MPH in college, was sitting between 89-90 MPH as a pro. His fastball, which was in the low 90s before, now sat at 95 MPH and could touch 97 MPH as well.

Mathews has completely changed his ceiling as a prospect. He'll sit within the top 40 prospects in baseball at minimum when preseason 2025 lists come out, and I'm predicting that he either breaks camp in the big league rotation or is called up sometime in May at the latest. While I don't expect him to be Paul Skenes, I do think he'll pitch in such a way that he'll end up finishing in the top 3 in Rookie of the Year voting, giving the Cardinals another difference-making arm in their rotation moving forward.

Prediction #8 - JJ Wetherholt cements himself as a top prospect, primed to start with the big league club in 2026

For all of the hype surrounding Mathews' and his meteoric rise, it shows you just how special JJ Wetherholt is that there is zero question as to whether or not he's the Cardinals' top prospect.

Immediately upon being drafted, Wetherholt was slotted into the top 30 prospects in baseball on every top 100 list. The Cardinals have not had a talent viewed this highly upon being drafted in decades. That doesn't mean he'll be their best prospect since then, but others had to work to earn that kind of ranking - Wetherholt's reputation and skillset precede him.

Viewed by many as the favorite to go number one overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt suffered a hamstring injury that caused him to fall down draft boards, but even in the minutes leading up to the draft, many believed he would still end up being taken by the Cleveland Guardians. Instead, he slid all the way to number seven, where the Cardinals were thrilled to select him for their future.

Wetherholt's 65-grade hit tool is his calling card, just a tick below being a plus-plus tool, but he's been highly regarded for his elite bat-to-ball skills, maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, and laying off even borderline balls to make pitchers come attack him.

Paired with above-average power and speed, Wetherholt has true All-Star potential and has recently been compared to free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who'll likely be cashing in on close to a $200 million deal here soon.

I wouldn't rule out Wetherholt blazing through the minors this year and ending up in St. Louis, especially if they feel he is ready and they want to get fans to the ballpark. What I will predict though is that by the end of 2025, the Cardinals will be anticipating Wetherholt running with a starting job out of camp in 2026, ushering in the Chaim Bloom era with a new face for the young core.

Prediction #9 - Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have improved seasons after leaving St. Louis

While Paul Goldschmidt has already found a new home with the New York Yankees, Arenado is still a Cardinal. But as I predicted at the beginning, I do believe he ends up being traded, and I believe both players will bounce back with their new clubs in a way that will likely frustrate Cardinals fans.

Let's start with Goldschmidt. 2024 was beyond disappointing for the former MVP. On the season, he slashed .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs and 65 RBI in 154 games, good for an exactly league-average 100 wRC+. Oh, and he was sixth-worst in baseball among qualified hitters with runners in scoring position. Yikes.

But things did improve as the season went along. From July 1st through the rest of the season, Goldschmidt posted a 116 wRC+ in 305 plate appearances, which equated to a .269/.310/.473 slash line. While the home runs weren't there like they used to (11), he was a doubles machine once again (23) which is still an extremely valuable thing for anyone's lineup.

As for Arenado, he also had a better final three months of the season than he did beginning for St. Louis. On the year, Arenado was a 102 wRC+ guy, but from July on, he posted a 110 wRC+ due to a boost in his average and slugging percentage down the stretch. Even in a bad year by his standards, Arenado was still a 3.1 fWAR player, so a slight uptick in his bat gets him closer to a very valuable 4-win player.

I hesitated to use the word "bounce back" with these guys as I feel like it's a loaded term, but I do think we see improved play from both of them next year. No, they won't be All-Stars or back to their usual selves, but I still believe they have value to provide their clubs will moving forward.

Prediction #10 - The Cardinals are competitive in 2025, but it's not enough to make the playoffs

If my predictions come true in 2025, then let's summarize what kind of team we'd be looking at:

1. The Cardinals' rotation is led by a Cy Young candidate in Sonny Gray and a Rookie of the Year candidate in Quinn Mathews. I'd expect that to be a better group overall.
2. The lineup takes a step forward as well. With Contreras, Herrera, and Nootbaar on the field consistently and improvement from various young players, the club is able to produce runs at a league-average rate, rather than bottom six in all of baseball.
3. The bullpen is not as good as it was in 2024, but by holding onto Helsley and having some new young arms in the mix as the season goes on, it's not a huge step back either.

If that is the kind of team we are looking at in 2025, I think we see the Cardinals crack 80 wins again and fight for the playoffs, but once again fall short of October baseball.

The 2024 Cardinals had a Pythagorean expected record of 76-86 based on their play last year, and so they outperformed that by seven wins to finish 83-79. An improved lineup that is not historically bad with runners in scoring position and a bit more upside in the rotation should push that performance up, but without a lockdown bullpen, there's also some regression coming for one-run games.

So overall, while I think they'll be a better team in 2025 than they were in 2024, the actual record won't be that much different. But I think it will feel different.

2024 was a year filled with regression from young talent, from their "stars", and a patchwork pitching staff that got the job done but lacked a long-term future or upside.

2025's team can win a similar amount of games due to an emerging young core and projectable pitching staff, leaving fans with hope and optimism about what is to come rather than dread of the unknown like this past offseason.

It won't be all rainbows and butterflies in this scenario, but I do think fans will feel a lot better about this team come next offseason than they do right now. That's my prediction. Could it go south? Absolutely. But I do think Bloom is going to inherit an exciting team next offseason and will get to work molding it around his vision for the organization's future.

I'd love to hear your predictions for the Cardinals in 2025 (good, bad, or ugly!). I'll be posting this story on X and Facebook, so leave a comment there and I'd love to read your thoughts!