Redbird Rants | A St. Louis Cardinals Blog » Thompson

Wellemeyer vs. Thompson: Thrive for Five

ramseymark — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:44:12 +0000

The Cards seem to be falling into place. Khalil Greene comes back, defends his new position capably, and shows some power. Brendan Ryan has been playing great and has earned a majority of the playing time at shortstop. Franklin remains solid as the closer. But Todd Wellemeyer still struggles, and it raises the question: When Lohse returns, who is the #5 Starter? The two candidates, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer, have been pretty aware that they are fighting for this rotation spot in their last couple starts. They’ve both been working with Dave Duncan, and appear to be approaching each start the same way: Warm up, pitch poorly, repeat.

Their last starts:

Wellemeyer 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2.47 WHIP, 2 K

Thompson 5 IP, 5ER, 1.80 WHIP, 0 K

Their Careers:

Wellemeyer 4.62 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .490 Win Pct.

Thompson 4.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .471 Win Pct.

The Incumbent:

Wellemeyer has had a particularly rough year. His fastball hasn’t been up to the mid-90s consistently, and his location and movement aren’t fooling anyone. He leads the National League with 107 hits and is 3rd in Earned Runs. His ERA is at 5.85, 1.23 runs higher career, and for every 9 innings this year, he’s allowed an average of 16 walks/hits. His Stuff number is 0, which is at the point where you’re encouraged to find a replacement. Cue up…

The Challenger:

Thompson started off as a very capable spot starter, but as the regularity of his starts increases, his performance has dropped off. His ERA stands at 4.72 and he’s allowing 11.9 walks/hits for every 9 innings. His ERA has increased every year since coming to the majors. His Stuff number is a stunning -12, and it’s much lower as a starter. He only has 2.4 K/9 this season to boot, which is the lowest number for a Cards pitcher this season.

So we can all see that the answer should be neither. However, looking down to Memphis, we see P.J. Walters and Mitchell Boggs as the possibilities, and their stats stack up about as unfavorably as our two main competitors.

In fairness, Wellemeyer’s BABIP has been .345, which is 80 points higher than the rest of the time with the Redbirds. Thompson’s, on the other hand, has been .264, which is about 25 points lower than his career. So the bad luck has all fallen on the shoulders of Wellemeyer, and statistically he has the better chance to rebound. Plus, he actually has the stuff to overpower and fool hitters, and showed that last year when his ERA was below 4 and his Stuff rating was +11. Thompson has been a contact hitter with no dominating pitches his whole career, and has stepped up favorably as a spot starter.

So there’s no right decision here. Even though stats show that Wellemeyer has the better chance to rebound, moving Wellemeyer to the bullpen to work on his velocity and command might be the best step to take. If he knows he only has about 20-30 pitches instead of 80-100, he can throw harder, which should improve his strikeout rate and keep hitters off of the bags. Down the stretch, if Wellemeyer has found a better command, move him back to the rotation. But the fact of the matter is, he’s not ready to be in the rotation now, and Thompson can throw strikes and has a better likelihood of running into struggling offenses and getting them to get themselves out. Either way, it should be interested to see what LaRussa and company do when the decision comes across their desk.

Listening to: Todd Snider, Tales at Moondawg’s Tavern

Carpenter Headed to DL

mikewest — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 18:32:26 +0000

The Cardinals former ace and 2005 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter enjoyed an offseason that could almost be called “normal”. Cardinal fans were hoping for a strong return from the pitcher this year, but most were playing the safe bet that his health would keep him from taking the ball every fifth day.

After a very solid month of Grapefruit League play, Carpenter started to sway our opinions. What if he could continue his spring pace in the regular season? How good would the Cardinal rotation be?

On April 9, against Pittsburgh, Carp threw a one-hit gem through seven innings, striking out seven Pirates along the way. It took just one outing to forget about all the injuries and rehab of the last two seasons. Everyone was back on the Chris Carpenter bandwagon, hoping to ride it all the way to the playoffs.

Then in the middle of last night’s game, the damn wagon caught fire, the wheels fell off, and the road to October baseball shut down for construction. They’re saying a few weeks, but we know how accurate those timetables are.

Okay. Maybe it’s not that bad. Really, it could be a lot worse.

After getting through the first three innings unscathed on less than stellar stuff, Carpenter was pulled from the game with a strained left ribcage before throwing a pitch in the fourth. As he walked off the mound, you could feel the sinking hearts of Cardinal fans everywhere. No matter the outcome of the game, the Redbirds lost.

Although there hasn’t yet been an official announcement, it looks like Carpenter will head to the disabled list, Brad Thompson will be optioned to Triple-A Memphis, and Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs will be promoted. Joe Strauss has more.

Jesse Sanchez has a full recap of last night’s game. One of the biggest head scratchers was Tony La Russa’s choice to pinch hit with Brendan Ryan over Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded and the game on the line. Derrick Goold has his take over at Bird Land.

Joel Pineiro will be on the mound for the Cards this afternoon as they try to win their first series this season. Jon Garland will pitch for the Diamondbacks.

Wellemeyer Struggles in Loss

mikewest — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 04:18:06 +0000

After my trip to St. Louis for another exciting (but dissappointing) Opening Day, and being on an airplane during last night’s game, I was pretty excited to watch my first Cardinal telecast tonight. More on my trip in a minute.

The Cards were hoping to get a solid performance from tonight’s starter Todd Wellemeyer en route to a win over Pittsburgh, and at least, an opening series tie. Instead, the Colonel was roughed up for 5 runs on 12 hits. He also walked a pair, and needed 93 pitches to get through 5 innings.

Even though he didn’t particularly have a good spring, I’m not yet concerned about Wellemeyer. After all, his 9.00 ERA is the same as National League Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.

Unfortunately for Cards fans, Brad Thompson’s relief appearance wasn’t a whole lot better. He served up a two-run homer to Nate McLouth in the sixth. As Dan and Al noted during the broadcast, Thompson seems to be giving up a lot more fly balls lately, which is pretty alarming for a sinkerballer.

At least Trever Miller and Ryan Franklin were able to keep the final two frames scoreless.

Not much can be said for the St. Louis offense either. They scattered 7 hits in the contest, but also left 7 men on base. 7-4 was the final score. Here’s the complete box score.

Something I did find interesting was Tony La Russa’s lineup, which had it’s third different third baseman in as many games. Tonight’s starter, hometown rookie David Freese picked up a pair of hits, including a double of the right field wall. I look for him to get more starts than the other two (or three) candidates. Colby Rasmus got the start in left field and was in the lead-off spot. Although he didn’t get a hit, it was nice to see him draw a couple of walks and give a few Matt Capps’ fastballs a ride. Chris Duncan was the outfielder on the pine, leaving Rick Ankiel as the only outfielder to start each game.

The series finale is tomorrow afternoon. Chris Carpenter gets the start for the Redbirds after skipping his previous turn in the rotation. The Pirates will counter with Ross Ohlendorf. Hopefully Carp can restore some sanity in Cardinal Nation with a win.

Finally, for those interested, my annual trip to the Lou for season opener was a blast. I did all the usual things: Drinks with friends at Fast Eddie’s on Sunday. Downtown outside of Al Hrabosky’s at 8:30 Monday morning for tailgating. Skipped over to Paddy O’s for more beers a couple of hours before the game. Watched the caravan of Clydesdales and Fords from left field. And of course saw a hell of a baseball game.

Afterwards is a bit fuzzy, but I know it included a lot more beers back at the bars. I’ll get a link to the pictures up as soon as I finish uploading them.