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St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk is the new Matt Holliday
The St. Louis Cardinals have officially declined Matt Holliday’s 2017 option and have officially relocated Randal Grichuk.
Matt Holliday gave so much to these St. Louis Cardinals. He was amazing. Well, his offense was amazing. His defense wasn’t horrible (not like Chris Duncan‘s humorous left field) but his range and effectiveness made it very important to have an outstanding center fielder.
As Holliday started to fade in left field, Mozeliak grabbed two players from the Angels to back-fill the center spot: Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk. Jon Jay was on the team at the time of this trade but his defense in center was not necessarily strong enough to assist with Holliday’s lacking range.
Bourjos was brought thanks to his speed and his promise to fill the gap in center. While Bourjos had speed, his defense didn’t show to be any stronger in center than that of Jay. To add insult to injury, neither Jay nor Bourjos were able to get their bats functional at the plate.
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This was when Randal Grichuk made his move. What was an accessory piece to the Bourjos trade was quickly becoming the gem of the trade. Grichuk made a name for himself in spring training and even in Memphis such that he found his way to the St. Louis Cardinals and found his way into playing center field on a daily basis.
Let’s take a look at his defensive numbers with the St. Louis Cardinals:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | Inn | Ch | PO | A | E | DP | Fld% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 | Memphis | PCL | AAA | STL | CF | 36 | 296.1 | 70 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2014 | 22 | Memphis | PCL | AAA | STL | LF | 53 | 438.1 | 80 | 71 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .975 |
| 2014 | 22 | Memphis | PCL | AAA | STL | RF | 12 | 85.0 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2014 | 22 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | CF | 5 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .944 | |
| 2014 | 22 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | LF | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |
| 2014 | 22 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | RF | 28 | 33 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .970 | |
| 2015 | 23 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | CF | 37 | |||||||
| 2015 | 23 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | LF | 49 | |||||||
| 2015 | 23 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | OF | 85 | 719.2 | 156 | 151 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .981 |
| 2015 | 23 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | RF | 13 | |||||||
| 2016 | 24 | Memphis | PCL | AAA | STL | CF | 17 | 131.1 | 31 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2016 | 24 | Memphis | PCL | AAA | STL | OF | 17 | 131.1 | 31 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2016 | 24 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | CF | 115 | 949.1 | 229 | 221 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2016 | 24 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | LF | 4 | 27.0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2016 | 24 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | OF | 119 | 994.1 | 241 | 232 | 8 | 1 | 1 | .996 |
| 2016 | 24 | STL | NL | MLB | STL | RF | 3 | 18.0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .800 |
| MLB (3 seasons) | MLB | CF | 157 | 949.1 | 247 | 238 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| MLB (3 seasons) | MLB | LF | 58 | 27.0 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| MLB (2 seasons) | MLB | OF | 204 | 1714.0 | 397 | 383 | 10 | 4 | 2 | .990 | ||||
| MLB (3 seasons) | MLB | RF | 44 | 18.0 | 38 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |||||
| Minors (6 seasons) | Minors | CF | 128 | 1070.0 | 285 | 273 | 10 | 2 | 1 | .993 | ||||
| Minors (3 seasons) | Minors | LF | 99 | 842.2 | 133 | 121 | 9 | 3 | 0 | .977 | ||||
| Minors (6 seasons) | Minors | RF | 308 | 2665.1 | 645 | 609 | 26 | 10 | 9 | .984 |
Notice that he has notched experience at all of the outfield spots. While his sample size is small for left field, he has held well at .977 fielding percentage in the minors at left. That said, Memphis has a wide left field and this makes playing this spot difficult unless the center fielder can cover a great deal of ground. This will stand true in St. Louis too.
The Cardinals have announced that Grichuk will replace the outgoing Holliday in left field in 2017 thus opening the door for a new center fielder. Before diving further, let’s compare Grichuk and Holliday to see if this is an improvement.
Grichuk:
| Year | Tm | Age | Pos | G | Inn | Ch | PO | A | E | DP | Fld% | Rtot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | STL | 22 | CF | 5 | 29.0 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .944 | 2 |
| 2014 | STL | 22 | LF | 5 | 31.0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 2 |
| 2015 | STL | 23 | LF | 49 | 344.1 | 63 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .968 | 2 |
| 2015 | STL | 23 | CF | 37 | 282.0 | 72 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 3 |
| 2016 | STL | 24 | CF | 115 | 949.1 | 229 | 221 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 2016 | STL | 24 | LF | 4 | 27.0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 |
| 3 Seasons | CF | 157 | 1260.1 | 319 | 309 | 9 | 1 | 2 | .997 | 5 | ||
| 3 Seasons | LF | 58 | 402.1 | 77 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .974 | 4 | ||
| 3 Seasons | TOT | 239 | 1932.1 | 455 | 437 | 12 | 6 | 2 | .987 | 8 |
Grichuk holds an Rtot (runs above pr below average a player is worth based on the number of plays made) of four when playing in left field and a five when playing in center.
Holliday:
| Year | Tm | Lg | Age | Pos | G | Inn | Ch | PO | A | E | DP | Fld% | Rtot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | STL | NL | 29 | LF | 62 | 540.2 | 88 | 86 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .989 | 0 |
| 2010 | STL | NL | 30 | LF | 155 | 1341.2 | 272 | 261 | 8 | 3 | 0 | .989 | -0 |
| 2011 | STL | NL | 31 | LF | 115 | 990.2 | 203 | 196 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .985 | -1 |
| 2012 | STL | NL | 32 | LF | 152 | 1312.2 | 235 | 226 | 6 | 3 | 1 | .987 | -13 |
| 2013 | STL | NL | 33 | LF | 136 | 1150.1 | 215 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .995 | 8 |
| 2014 | STL | NL | 34 | LF | 150 | 1280.2 | 252 | 240 | 5 | 7 | 1 | .972 | 0 |
| 2015 | STL | NL | 35 | LF | 64 | 495.1 | 85 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | -2 |
| 2016 | STL | NL | 36 | LF | 84 | 644.0 | 113 | 111 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | -7 |
| 13 Seasons | LF | 1698 | 14482.2 | 2947 | 2832 | 67 | 48 | 12 | .984 | -31 | |||
| 13 Seasons | TOT | 1708 | 14544.1 | 3022 | 2897 | 77 | 48 | 17 | .984 | -30 |
Holliday holds an Rtot of negative thirty-one over his thirteen-season career in left field. When Holliday joined the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009 he held the average for two seasons in left. His best season was in 2013 when he ranked at eight points above the average that season in left.
In short, Grichuk will be a defensive improvement over Holliday in left. How about offense? Let’s compare (which might not be a fair comparison). These are Grichuk’s numbers:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 | STL | 47 | 110 | 11 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 31 | .245 | .278 | .400 | .678 |
| 2015 | 23 | STL | 103 | 323 | 49 | 89 | 23 | 7 | 17 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 110 | .276 | .329 | .548 | .877 |
| 2016 | 24 | STL | 132 | 446 | 66 | 107 | 29 | 3 | 24 | 68 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 141 | .240 | .289 | .480 | .769 |
| 3 Yrs | 282 | 879 | 126 | 223 | 58 | 11 | 44 | 123 | 9 | 8 | 55 | 282 | .254 | .302 | .495 | .797 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 505 | 72 | 128 | 33 | 6 | 25 | 71 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 162 | .254 | .302 | .495 | .797 |
And these are Holliday’s numbers:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 29 | STL | 63 | 235 | 42 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 43 | .353 | .419 | .604 | 1.023 |
| 2010 ★ | 30 | STL | 158 | 596 | 95 | 186 | 45 | 1 | 28 | 103 | 9 | 5 | 69 | 93 | .312 | .390 | .532 | .922 |
| 2011 ★ | 31 | STL | 124 | 446 | 83 | 132 | 36 | 0 | 22 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 60 | 93 | .296 | .388 | .525 | .912 |
| 2012 ★ | 32 | STL | 157 | 599 | 95 | 177 | 36 | 2 | 27 | 102 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 132 | .295 | .379 | .497 | .877 |
| 2013 | 33 | STL | 141 | 520 | 103 | 156 | 31 | 1 | 22 | 94 | 6 | 1 | 69 | 86 | .300 | .389 | .490 | .879 |
| 2014 | 34 | STL | 156 | 574 | 83 | 156 | 37 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 4 | 1 | 74 | 100 | .272 | .370 | .441 | .811 |
| 2015 ★ | 35 | STL | 73 | 229 | 24 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 49 | .279 | .394 | .410 | .804 |
| 2016 | 36 | STL | 110 | 382 | 48 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 20 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 71 | .246 | .322 | .461 | .782 |
| 13 Yrs | 1773 | 6583 | 1104 | 1995 | 448 | 32 | 295 | 1153 | 107 | 37 | 744 | 1230 | .303 | .382 | .515 | .897 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 601 | 101 | 182 | 41 | 3 | 27 | 105 | 10 | 3 | 68 | 112 | .303 | .382 | .515 | .897 | ||
| STL (8 yrs) | 982 | 3581 | 573 | 1048 | 237 | 8 | 156 | 616 | 29 | 17 | 447 | 667 | .293 | .380 | .494 | .874 |
Fair comparison? Holliday has played longer and thus has a larger sample size but he has been weakened of late thanks to age and injury. On the opposite side of things, the younger Grichuk joined the St. Louis Cardinals around .240 BA, climbed to around .270, and regressed in 2016 back around .240. If Grichuk can regain the .270s then he can well replace Holliday at the plate.
I feel confident that Grichuk can grow accordingly as needed for the St. Louis Cardinals. I feel that his replacing Holliday will work extremely well in the field and that he can grow at the plate. He is not the same as the younger Holliday but is certainly better than the Holliday of late.
Next: Where to play Matt Carpenter
I am a huge Matt Holliday fan and will hate to see him go. Maybe he won’t be going anywhere but he is likely headed to the American League to serve as a designated hitter. If this is his future, then the St. Louis Cardinals are simply not the right place for this future.